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Ed Miliband was on to something with the big six, but nobody will admit it Ed Miliband was on to something with the big six, but nobody will admit it
(35 minutes later)
You wouldn't know it from reading the Ed Miliband-abusing headlines but since the papers were printed, one of Britain's big six energy companies has embraced a version of the price freeze that the same papers – and David Cameron – abused the Labour leader for after he promised one last autumn.You wouldn't know it from reading the Ed Miliband-abusing headlines but since the papers were printed, one of Britain's big six energy companies has embraced a version of the price freeze that the same papers – and David Cameron – abused the Labour leader for after he promised one last autumn.
SSE's promise to keep – or reduce – its retail prices to 7 million customers until 2016 comes with a price tag that includes 500 voluntary redundancies and may be a pre-emptive strike ahead of a critical view of the way Britain's energy cartel does its lucrative business. But even its decision to split its retail and wholesale divisions in the interests of transparency smacks of the Miliband agenda.SSE's promise to keep – or reduce – its retail prices to 7 million customers until 2016 comes with a price tag that includes 500 voluntary redundancies and may be a pre-emptive strike ahead of a critical view of the way Britain's energy cartel does its lucrative business. But even its decision to split its retail and wholesale divisions in the interests of transparency smacks of the Miliband agenda.
So well done, Ed? Not a bit of it. Ever since Patrick Wintour and Rowena Mason reported on Monday that a coalition of Labour allies across the party spectrum are urging him "don't play safe" on policy ahead of next year's general election, the Tory press has been chasing any passing wannabe to extract a critical verdict on his plight. So well done, Ed? Not a bit of it. Ever since Patrick Wintour and Rowena Mason reported on Monday that a coalition of Labour allies across the party spectrum are urging him "don't play safe" on policy before next year's general election, the Tory press has been chasing any passing wannabe to extract a critical verdict on his plight.
Today's Times got YouGov (a polling organisation wrongly but frequently accused of being leftwing) to ask a wife-beating question or two: do most voters look "at the moment" on Ed Miliband and see a prime minister in waiting? And does Labour look ready for government? You will be no more shocked than the paper's editor must have been to learn that in these hacked-off times the answer was "Not a lot."Today's Times got YouGov (a polling organisation wrongly but frequently accused of being leftwing) to ask a wife-beating question or two: do most voters look "at the moment" on Ed Miliband and see a prime minister in waiting? And does Labour look ready for government? You will be no more shocked than the paper's editor must have been to learn that in these hacked-off times the answer was "Not a lot."
To be more precise, 19% of voters overall could imagine Ed in No 10, unchanged since September 2012 (though it rose to 23% after that conference speech on energy prices), and only 26% thought Labour fit for government. "Most Labour voters remain unconvinced," according to the Times, though that is Tory-speak for the 49% who see Ed as No 10 material ("at the moment") against 33% who don't and 19% who don't know or ("at the moment") possibly don't care. To be more precise, 19% of voters overall could imagine Ed in No 10, unchanged since September 2012 (though it rose to 23% after that conference speech on energy prices), and only 26% thought Labour fit for government. "Most Labour voters remain unconvinced," according to the Times, though that is Tory-speak for the 49% of Labour voters who see Ed as No 10 material ("at the moment") against 33% who don't and 19% who don't know or ("at the moment") possibly don't care.
I'm not a great believer in polls as a guide to future voting or what people actually think. I discounted those double-figure Labour leads (besides 10% in mid-term is not enough) and discount them now that they have shrunk to 3% or even 1% at the weekend. I'm not a great believer in polls as a guide to future voting or what people actually think. I discounted those double-figure Labour leads (besides, 10% in mid-term is not enough) and discount them now that they have shrunk to 3% or even 1% at the weekend.
Why? I have questioned enough strangers on the street over many years to know it all depends on the question, how it's framed and the tone it's asked in. When doing the old vox pop Picture Probe feature – 12 punters, 12 pics, 12 answers on a hot topic – for the Evening Standard 40 years ago I always arranged a 6-6 draw. It wasn't hard, in the same way that newspaper vendors in those days prided themselves on knowing from the way a customer was dressed which of London's evening papers they would purchase.Why? I have questioned enough strangers on the street over many years to know it all depends on the question, how it's framed and the tone it's asked in. When doing the old vox pop Picture Probe feature – 12 punters, 12 pics, 12 answers on a hot topic – for the Evening Standard 40 years ago I always arranged a 6-6 draw. It wasn't hard, in the same way that newspaper vendors in those days prided themselves on knowing from the way a customer was dressed which of London's evening papers they would purchase.
Timing matters too, especially in volatile times when voters are easily distracted by more pressing matters. I can't say with any confidence which side will win Scotland's independence referendum on 18 September, let alone the UK referendum on 7 May 2015. It's too soon to say. Anything could happen. All we know is that most of Fleet Street is already campaigning for a Tory win in both elections – which will have the perverse effect of helping Alex Salmond disappoint them in September.Timing matters too, especially in volatile times when voters are easily distracted by more pressing matters. I can't say with any confidence which side will win Scotland's independence referendum on 18 September, let alone the UK referendum on 7 May 2015. It's too soon to say. Anything could happen. All we know is that most of Fleet Street is already campaigning for a Tory win in both elections – which will have the perverse effect of helping Alex Salmond disappoint them in September.
So the Times asked a predictable question to which it expected a negative answer, just as post-budget polls, the ones that gave George Osborne a boost after his interesting gamble with private pension pots, invited voters to praise him for "freeing" their money. Just so, Cameron's promise to ease inheritance tax (IHT) will be applauded by voters who, most of them, will not remotely benefit from the change (if it ever happens). So the Times asked a predictable question to which it expected a negative answer, just as post-budget polls, the ones that gave George Osborne a boost after his interesting gamble with private pension pots, invited voters to praise him for "freeing" their money. Just so, Cameron's promise to ease inheritance tax (IHT) will be applauded by voters, most of whom will not remotely benefit from the change (if it ever happens).
That's human nature. It responds to an appeal for freedom more than it does to the slogan "Vote Labour for more sensible regulation" even though boring old regulation is usually the better bet. I have a friend whose business was snatched from him when he ran short of cash – along with many others – in the liquidity crisis and bank crash of 2008. He lost a small fortune and his buccaneering instincts have been tempered by the knowledge that his bankers and the accountants colluded in taking away his life's work. He's far from being the only one, the Tomlinson report concluded.That's human nature. It responds to an appeal for freedom more than it does to the slogan "Vote Labour for more sensible regulation" even though boring old regulation is usually the better bet. I have a friend whose business was snatched from him when he ran short of cash – along with many others – in the liquidity crisis and bank crash of 2008. He lost a small fortune and his buccaneering instincts have been tempered by the knowledge that his bankers and the accountants colluded in taking away his life's work. He's far from being the only one, the Tomlinson report concluded.
That's part of Miliband's problem since YouGov is not to be faulted for confirming disappointment with his leadership. It's partly about policy. So determined is he to be cautious and responsible – to be seen to have learned from mistakes of the Blair/Brown era (even if they weren't) – that most of his pronouncements, especially where money is concerned, sound dull before he says a word. That's part of Miliband's problem, since YouGov is not to be faulted for confirming disappointment with his leadership. It's partly about policy. So determined is he to be cautious and responsible – to be seen to have learned from mistakes of the Blair/Brown era (even if they weren't) – that most of his pronouncements, especially where money is concerned, sound dull before he says a word.
Even his decisive – and correct – rejection of an EU referendum was bound up with caveats that failed to appease the Euro-sceptic beasts of Fleet Street, which (all but the Express and Morning Star) backed Europe in the last such referendum in 1975. Even his decisive – and correct – rejection of an EU referendum was bound up with caveats that failed to appease the Eurosceptic beasts of Fleet Street, which (all but the Express and Morning Star) backed Europe in the last such referendum in 1975.
It would matter less if Miliband – or Ed Balls, who is sounding restless – were better able to communicate with voters as normal folk, the kind of men you might enjoy a drink with. This notorious test can be deceptive. No one in their right mind would have wanted to drink anything but hemlock in Margaret Thatcher's abrasive presence most of the time (I tried white wine myself, it didn't work), but she could do the job.It would matter less if Miliband – or Ed Balls, who is sounding restless – were better able to communicate with voters as normal folk, the kind of men you might enjoy a drink with. This notorious test can be deceptive. No one in their right mind would have wanted to drink anything but hemlock in Margaret Thatcher's abrasive presence most of the time (I tried white wine myself, it didn't work), but she could do the job.
Of course, as opposition leader she too was patronised by (mostly male) colleagues and insulted by pollsters, too. Voters much preferred Jim Callaghan. It's the medium, a firm but friendly manner, an air of seasoned confidence, that voters like – and currently don't think they see when inspecting the options: Dave, Ed and Nick. I would add Nigel, but he's slipped out for a fag and a pint.Of course, as opposition leader she too was patronised by (mostly male) colleagues and insulted by pollsters, too. Voters much preferred Jim Callaghan. It's the medium, a firm but friendly manner, an air of seasoned confidence, that voters like – and currently don't think they see when inspecting the options: Dave, Ed and Nick. I would add Nigel, but he's slipped out for a fag and a pint.
It is the fate of opposition leaders to see their better ideas first mocked, then pinched without them getting any credit. It used to happen all the time to the Lib Dems when they were safe and harmless. It may happen to Miliband with SSE's move on energy prices today – if SSE can actually deliver what it promises. Vladimir Putin may have other ideas.It is the fate of opposition leaders to see their better ideas first mocked, then pinched without them getting any credit. It used to happen all the time to the Lib Dems when they were safe and harmless. It may happen to Miliband with SSE's move on energy prices today – if SSE can actually deliver what it promises. Vladimir Putin may have other ideas.
I think Labour thinktanks, donors (clueless though so many are) and wellwishers are right to panic. Too many have complacently assumed doom for the coalition partners in 2015. Since the shock of a formal coalition being announced in the No 10 rose garden in 2010, I have assumed the opposite: that they would more-or-less hang together and probably win again. Miliband's election as leader (why DID he want the job so soon?) reinforced that hunch.I think Labour thinktanks, donors (clueless though so many are) and wellwishers are right to panic. Too many have complacently assumed doom for the coalition partners in 2015. Since the shock of a formal coalition being announced in the No 10 rose garden in 2010, I have assumed the opposite: that they would more-or-less hang together and probably win again. Miliband's election as leader (why DID he want the job so soon?) reinforced that hunch.
But I could be wrong. A lot can go right for Cameron, Clegg or Miliband between now and polling day. A lot more can go wrong, starting with a Yes to Ukip in the EU elections on 22 May ("Trebles all round") after a Farage triumph against Clegg on LBC radio on Wednesday night followed by a Yes in Scotland's independence vote in September. There's plenty to play for. Voters may finally turn against the self-defeating folly of deflationary cuts which serve to generate more cuts. But I could be wrong. A lot can go right for Cameron, Clegg or Miliband between now and polling day. A lot more can go wrong, starting with a yes to Ukip in the EU elections on 22 May ("Trebles all round") after a Farage triumph against Clegg on LBC radio on Wednesday night, followed by a yes in Scotland's independence vote in September. There's plenty to play for. Voters may finally turn against the self-defeating folly of deflationary cuts which serve to generate more cuts.
So don't be disheartened, young Ed. It's not over yet. I think.So don't be disheartened, young Ed. It's not over yet. I think.