Pistorius trial: After the evidence, focus on character

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-26746177

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So what have we learned after almost a month of prosecution evidence in courtroom D?

There's been plenty of sound and fury. And yes, a cricket bat, a door, some retching, and plenty of text messages.

But I'm not convinced it all signifies as much as we might think. I'll explain more in a minute, but first of all, here's my take on the prosecution's palpable hits, and woeful misses so far.

The hits:

I could go on. The text messages from Reeva complaining about his jealous tantrums were very damaging too - worrying evidence of a potentially abusive relationship - but Roux did a reasonable job of putting them in the broader context of an evolving, and clearly predominantly loving partnership.

The misses:

So what does it all add up to thus far? Not so much, I'd argue. Indeed, in a sense we've barely started.

My feeling is that the rival experts and the various neighbours and friends will largely cancel each other out. This trial ultimately rests on two key things - yet to come into focus. One is Oscar Pistorius' own performance on the witness stand. The other is the law.

Two people went into a bathroom. Only one came out alive. Inevitably this trial is going to hinge on Pistorius's own testimony. Not just what he says, but how convincingly he does so.

We've already seen evidence of his fragile emotional state in court this month. But we've also heard evidence of his anger.

Although Gerrie Nel has necessarily been a peripheral figure in court up to now, he is about to eclipse Barry Roux as he prepares to cross-examine the athlete; and make no mistake, Nel is a formidable, relentless, ferret-like performer, who will no doubt make every effort to push Pistorius towards a display of the sort of anger the prosecution believes led to him shooting Reeva Steenkamp.

Somehow Pistorius is going to have to convince the judge, not just of his honesty, but of the sense of extreme vulnerability he felt that night - a vulnerability he has spent much of his life trying to either hide or discount.

As for the law… Perhaps we've been distracted by all the talk of restaurant gunfire, screams, and angry texts. It's been made clear to me that the prosecution believes their case is watertight even if we accept Pistorius' own version of events.

In other words - if someone fires four shots through a locked door then he obviously intended to kill someone, and thus should be convicted of murder (pre-meditated or otherwise).

A reasonable man would and should have checked. What if it had been a neighbour's kid hiding in that toilet, sneaking in to steal a souvenir from his hero for a bet, rather than an armed intruder?

These are, ultimately, matters of law and precedent. And you can be sure they will become the furious focus of prosecution and defence in the weeks ahead.

The evidence can only go so far in this trial. After that, prepare to hear a lot about the difference between murder and culpable homicide, and a great deal more about the actions of a "reasonable man."