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In Afghan election, compromises and concerns of fraud In Afghan election, compromises and concerns of fraud
(about 5 hours later)
KABUL — The three doctors vying to become Afghanistan’s next president have traded in their tailored suits for traditional Afghan dress, speaking at rallies in remote, hardscrabble cities where their degrees mean little. KABUL — The three doctors vying to become Afghanistan’s next president have traded in their tailored suits for traditional Afghan dress and are speaking at rallies in remote, hardscrabble cities where their university degrees mean little.
But the backgrounds of the three front-runners — a French-trained physician, an ophthalmologist and a former World Bank official with a doctorate — have inspired hope in foreign capitals that Afghanistan’s next leader might improve its strained relationship with the United States and NATO. But the backgrounds of the three front-runners — a French-trained physician, an ophthalmologist and a former World Bank official with a doctorate — have inspired hope in foreign capitals that Afghanistan’s next leader might improve the country’s strained relationship with the United States and NATO.
Saturday’s election is crucial to maintaining this country’s stability as the U.S. military winds down its 12-year-war. Worries about fraud already cast a shadow over the vote, and many Afghans fear an election seen as illegitimate could lead to the fracturing of the country’s fragile institutions – including the army and police-- at a time when the Taliban insurgency remains a major threat. Saturday’s election is crucial to maintaining stability as the U.S. military winds down its 12-year-long war. Worries about fraud are casting a shadow over the vote, and many Afghans fear that an election seen as illegitimate could fracture the country’s fragile institutions — including the army and police — at a time when the Taliban insurgency remains a major threat.
In separate interviews, the leading candidates — Zalmai Rassoul, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah — spoke of their ability to navigate both Afghan provincesand Western capitals. Each said he would sign a stalled agreement with the U.S. government that would allow American troops to remain here beyond 2014. In interviews, the leading candidates — Zalmay Rassoul, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah — spoke of their ability to navigate Afghan provinces and Western capitals. Each said he would sign a stalled agreement with the U.S. government that would allow American troops to remain here beyond 2014.
But after weeks of feverish campaigning, in which voters have attended massive rallies despite Taliban threats, it remains unclear what kind of compromises each candidate might have to make to win the election. The doctors, moderate as they may be, have chosen allies that reflect how much ethnicity — as well as corruption and political favors — drive politics in this country. But after weeks of feverish campaigning, with massive rallies despite Taliban threats, it remains unclear what kind of compromises each candidate might make to try to win the election. The doctors, despite their apparent moderate stances, have chosen allies that reflect the influence of ethnicity on politics in this country.
Ghani, the former World Bank official, who holds a PhD in anthropology from Columbia University, has selected Abdul Rashid Dostum as one of his two vice-presidential candidates. Dostum is an Uzbek commander known as a merciless killer during the civil war of the 1990s. Ghani, the former World Bank official, who holds a PhD in anthropology from Columbia University, has selected Gen. Abdurrashid Dostum as one of his two vice-presidential candidates. Dostum is an Uzbek commander known as a merciless killer during the civil war of the 1990s.
Abdullah, the ophthalmologist and a former foreign minister, is running with Mohammad Mohaqiq, an ethnic Hazara leaeder with a similarly brutal reputation. Abdullah, the ophthalmologist and a former foreign minister, is running with Mohammad Mohaqiq, an ethnic Hazara leader with a similarly brutal reputation.
Rassoul, the French-educated physician and a former national security adviser and foreign minister, is widely believed to be President Hamid Karzai’s top choice, raising questions aboutwhat he might owe to Karzai. The president’s brothers, Mahmood and Qayum, have crisscrossed the country with Rassoul’s campaign. Rassoul, the French-educated physician and a former national security adviser and foreign minister, is widely thought to be President Hamid Karzai’s top choice, raising questions about what he might owe Karzai. Although the president hasn’t publicly endorsed a candidate, his brothers, Mahmoud and Qayum, have crisscrossed the country with Rassoul’s campaign.
All leading three candidates have dismissed suggestions from Afghan commentators that their campaigns are mired in old-school Afghan politics. Ghani has called his embrace of Dostum, who he once described as a “known killer,” part of an informal transitional justice process. The three leading candidates have dismissed suggestions by Afghan commentators that their campaigns are mired in old-school Afghan politics. Ghani has said his embrace of Dostum, who he once described as a “known killer,” is part of an informal transitional justice process.
Rassoul has denied that he was tapped by the president to run. Rassoul has denied that he was tapped by the president to run.
“The idea that I am a photocopy of him is wrong,” he said.“The idea that I am a photocopy of him is wrong,” he said.
Afghanistan might be a more modern nation than it was 12 years ago, but ethnic splits are still hugely significant. Ghani, an ethnic Pashtun, will no doubt gain Uzbek votes thanks to Dostum. Abdullah, a Tajik, will profit from Mohaqiq’s Hazara connections. Rassoul, like Karzai, is a Pashtun, but he lacks Karzai’s ethnic and tribal clout in southern Afghanistan. The Karzai family is from Kandahar’s influential Popolzai tribe.
Ghani, an ethnic Pashtun, will no doubt gain Uzbek votes thanks to Dostum. Abdullah, a Tajik, will profit from Mohaqiq’s Hazara connections. Rassoul, like Karzai, is a Pashtun, but lacks Karzai’s ethnic and tribal clout in southern Afghanistan. The Karzai family is from Kandahar’s influential Popalzai tribe. It’s difficult to assess the sizes of the ethnic groups — no census has been conducted in recent years. But it’s clear that Pashtuns and Tajiks are by far the most populous, and most people think Pashtuns have a considerable edge.
It’s difficult to assess the sizes of the ethnic groups — no census has been conducted in recent years. But it’s clear that Pashtuns and Tajiks are by far the most populous, and most people believe Pashtuns have a considerable edge.
Afghans expect that men like Dostum, Mohaqiq and the Karzais will look to get something in exchange for their support, but their demands are hard to predict.Afghans expect that men like Dostum, Mohaqiq and the Karzais will look to get something in exchange for their support, but their demands are hard to predict.
The three leading candidates claim that a new, educated class of Afghans has emerged, looking for policy changes rather than patronage networks. That might not be widely (?) true, and in their speeches, the candidates have been vague about their programs. A new kind of voter?
But on the campaign trail it was clear that pockets of progressive, issues-based voters had emerged. Some spoke of Afghan politics in terms that barely existed here a decade ago. The three leading candidates claim that a new, educated class of Afghans has emerged , looking for policy changes rather than patronage networks. That might not be widely true, and in their speeches, the candidates have been vague about their programs.
“I’ve been researching the economic platforms of the candidates on the Internet,” said Mohammad Zada, 26, a lawyer, while attending a rally for Abdullah in Panjshir province in northeastern Afghanistan. But on the campaign trail it was clear that there are pockets of progressive, issues-based voters. Some spoke in terms that barely existed here a decade ago.
Others said they were less interested in the candidates’ ethnic origin than in whether they would take a stronger line against the Taliban. . “I’ve been researching the economic platforms of the candidates on the Internet,” said Mohammad Zada, 26, a lawyer, at a rally for Abdullah in Panjshir province in the northeast.
Habibullah Hagai, 63, said he would cast his vote for a candidate of any ethnic origin, “as long as they stop the bloodshed.” He attended a rally for Rassoul in Herat last weekend (?), two weeks after his son, an Afghan soldier, was wounded by an improvised explosive device. Others said they were less interested in the candidates’ ethnic origin than in whether they would take a stronger line against the Taliban.
In the last few weeks, insurgents have attacked political campaigners, the election commission headquarters and several targets in Kabul associated with foreigners. Habibullah Hagai, 63, said he would cast his vote for a candidate of any ethnic origin, “as long as they stop the bloodshed.” He was attending a rally for Rassoul in Herat two weeks after his son, an Afghan soldier, was wounded by an improvised explosive device.
U.S. and other Western officials have avoided the appearance they are backing any of the candidates. But privately, officials acknowledge that they are pleased to have three front-runners who at least seem more moderate than some of their competitors — and more willing negotiating partners than Karzai. In the past few weeks, insurgents have attacked political campaigners, the election commission headquarters and several targets in Kabul associated with foreigners.
The eight presidential candidates still in the race include Abdul Sayyaf, a mujahidin commander who was connected to Osama Bin Laden, and Gul Agha Sherzai, a warlord who chose a bulldozer as his campaign symbol. But they appear to stand a slim chance of winning. U.S. and other Western officials have tried to avoid the appearance that they are backing any of the candidates. But privately, officials acknowledge that they are pleased to have three front-runners who at least seem to be more moderate than some of their competitors — and appear to be more willing negotiating partners than Karzai.
U.S. and Afghan negotiators had reached agreement last fall on a bilateral security agreement, but Karzai has so far refused to sign it, leaving that The eight presidential candidates in the race include Abdurrab Rasul Sayyaf, a mujahideen commander who was connected to Osama bin Laden, and Gul Agha Sherzai, a warlord who chose a bulldozer as his campaign symbol. But those two appear to have a slim chance of winning.
up to his successor. Each of the candidates reiterated his support for the accord, in interviews with the Post. U.S. and Afghan negotiators reached a bilateral security agreement last fall, but Karzai has refused to sign it, leaving that to his successor. In interviews, each leading candidate reiterated his support for the accord.
“It’s the guarantee of sovereignty in Afghanistan,” Ghani said.“It’s the guarantee of sovereignty in Afghanistan,” Ghani said.
“It’s my first order of business,” said Abdullah. “It’s my first order of business,” Abdullah said.
“Our relationship with the West is fundamental,” said Rassoul. “I would sign the current document.” “Our relationship with the West is fundamental,” Rassoul said. “I would sign the current document.”
Still, U.S. officials haven’t forgotten that Karzai was once a more vocal supporter of the American mission in Afghanistan than he is today. U.S. officials, however, have not forgotten that Karzai was once a more vocal supporter of the American mission in Afghanistan.
It remains unclear what role Karzai himself will play in the next administration. Ghani said he would create an advisory job for Karzai — the “Office of the National Leader.” It remains unclear what role Karzai will play in the next administration. Ghani said he would create an advisory job for Karzai — the “Office of the National Leader.” Rassoul and Abdullah were less specific, but both said he would remain relevant.
Rassoul and Abdullah were less specific, but both said he would remain relevant. Karzai plans to move into a house just a mile from the presidential palace. Worries of fraud
For now, though, the most pressing concern for both Afghan and Western officials is over the administration of the election itself. For now, the most pressing concern for Afghan and Western officials is the administration of the election.
A candidate has to win more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to avoid a run-off. Fraud tainted the last presidential election in 2009, when Abdullah and Karzai were the two top vote-getters. A candidate has to win more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to avoid a run-off. Fraud tainted the 2009 presidential election, when Abdullah and Karzai were the two top vote-getters.
Fraud is considered inevitable this time, too, with more than 6,000 polling centers, many of which are remote and difficult to monitor. The only question is the scale. Fraud is considered inevitable this time, too, with more than 6,000 polling centers, many of them remote and difficult to monitor. The only question is the scale.
“I will be absolutely amazed if we don’t have stolen votes,” said Qayum Karzai, while traveling to one of Rassoul’s campaign events. “I will be absolutely amazed if we don’t have stolen votes,” Qayum Karzai said while traveling to a Rassoul campaign event.
In 2009, Abdullah agreed to drop out of the race after the first round. . He won’t withdraw from this race if there’s fraud, however. And he’s convinced that fraud is the only reason he will lose. In 2009, Abdullah agreed to drop out after the first round. This time, he says, he won’t withdraw if there’s fraud. And he’s convinced that fraud would be the only reason he would lose.
“It is not in the interest of the country this time to stand down,” Abdullah said. If fraud cost him the election, he said, he would not advocate violence, but would mobilize thousands of people to effectively shut down the country’s institutions until the vote was resolved. “It is not in the interest of the country this time to stand down,” Abdullah said. If fraud cost him the election, he said, he would not advocate violence. Instead, he would mobilize thousands of people to effectively shut down the country’s institutions until the vote was resolved.
Other peripheral, but still powerful, candidates have made similar threats. If large constituencies driven by ethnic considerations refuse to accept the election results, chaos could ensue. Other candidates, peripheral but powerful, have made similar threats. If large constituencies driven by ethnic considerations refuse to accept the election results, chaos could ensue.
“The government has already interfered by supporting Rassoul,” Sherzai said (in an interview??). “The government has already interfered by supporting Rassoul,” Sherzai said.
Because of the large and slow-moving process of collecting and counting ballots, the winner won’t likely be formally announced for weeks. Because of the slow-moving process of collecting and counting ballots, the winner is unlikely to be formally announced for weeks.
Mohammad Sharif and Sayed Salahuddin in Kabul contributed to this report. Mohammad Sharif and Sayed Salahuddin contributed to this report.