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Indian general election: a brief guide Indian general election: a brief guide
(about 9 hours later)
India's general election, which starts on 7 April, will be the largest vote ever held. About 800 million voters will have a ballot, and of them about 20% will be eligible for the first time. Turnout has traditionally been in the region of 55%. So vast is the democratic exercise that it will require about 5 million people to conduct the procedure, and as many again to police it. Voting will take place over a number of phases lasting several weeks, and the electoral commission has stated that no voter should have to travel more than one mile to a polling station, and no station should serve more than 1,500 voters.India's general election, which starts on 7 April, will be the largest vote ever held. About 800 million voters will have a ballot, and of them about 20% will be eligible for the first time. Turnout has traditionally been in the region of 55%. So vast is the democratic exercise that it will require about 5 million people to conduct the procedure, and as many again to police it. Voting will take place over a number of phases lasting several weeks, and the electoral commission has stated that no voter should have to travel more than one mile to a polling station, and no station should serve more than 1,500 voters.
The election takes place on nine days over six weeks. Voting starts in the more remote hill and mountain districts of the far north-east before moving into restive central upland areas and then broadly shifting further west and south.The election takes place on nine days over six weeks. Voting starts in the more remote hill and mountain districts of the far north-east before moving into restive central upland areas and then broadly shifting further west and south.
Some of the medium-size states hold polls in all constituencies on the same day, but some of the bigger states – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh – are spread over five or more days. Jammu & Kashmir, with six constituencies, takes five separate days, to allow the security forces to concentrate their efforts on one constituency at a time.Some of the medium-size states hold polls in all constituencies on the same day, but some of the bigger states – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh – are spread over five or more days. Jammu & Kashmir, with six constituencies, takes five separate days, to allow the security forces to concentrate their efforts on one constituency at a time.
Day 1Day 1
7 April Six constituencies Voting in some seats in Assam and Tripura in the north-east7 April Six constituencies Voting in some seats in Assam and Tripura in the north-east
Day 2Day 2
9 April Seven constituencies9 April Seven constituencies
All of Arunachal Pradesh in the Himalayas, plus the other north-eastern states – Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland – and half of neighbouring ManipurAll of Arunachal Pradesh in the Himalayas, plus the other north-eastern states – Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland – and half of neighbouring Manipur
Day 3Day 3
10 April 91 constituencies10 April 91 constituencies
Chandigarh, Delhi, Kerala, and Haryana. Seats in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, J&K, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh, A&N Islands, and LakshadweepChandigarh, Delhi, Kerala, and Haryana. Seats in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, J&K, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh, A&N Islands, and Lakshadweep
Day 4Day 4
12 April Seven constituencies12 April Seven constituencies
The north-east again - more in Assam, plus all of Sikkim and the rest of Tripura – and Goa's two seatsThe north-east again - more in Assam, plus all of Sikkim and the rest of Tripura – and Goa's two seats
Day 5Day 5
17 April 121 constituencies17 April 121 constituencies
The biggest day. All of Karnataka, plus the rest of Odisha. Most of Rajasthan. Seats in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Last seat in ManipurThe biggest day. All of Karnataka, plus the rest of Odisha. Most of Rajasthan. Seats in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Last seat in Manipur
Day 6Day 6
24 April 117 constituencies24 April 117 constituencies
The second biggest day. All of Tamil Nadu; seats in Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, plus the rest of Assam, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and the single seat in PuducherryThe second biggest day. All of Tamil Nadu; seats in Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, plus the rest of Assam, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and the single seat in Puducherry
Day 7Day 7
30 April 89 constituencies30 April 89 constituencies
All of Modi's power base state of Gujarat, plus all of Punjab, a large part of Andhra Pradesh, and more seats in Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, and the two seats in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and DiuAll of Modi's power base state of Gujarat, plus all of Punjab, a large part of Andhra Pradesh, and more seats in Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, and the two seats in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu
Day 8Day 8
7 May 64 constituencies7 May 64 constituencies
The rest of Andhra Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, all of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and 15 seats in Uttar Pradesh, plus more in Bihar and West BengalThe rest of Andhra Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, all of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and 15 seats in Uttar Pradesh, plus more in Bihar and West Bengal
Day 9Day 9
12 May 41 constituencies12 May 41 constituencies
Not an anticlimax. The biggest day in two of most populous states: West Bengal, with its remaining 17 seats, and Uttar Pradesh with 18, along with the last seats in BiharNot an anticlimax. The biggest day in two of most populous states: West Bengal, with its remaining 17 seats, and Uttar Pradesh with 18, along with the last seats in Bihar
Political context
Congress, who have led a coalition government since 2004, is the Grand Old Party of Indian politics, having been in power for all but 13 of the 67 years since independence.
But hit by a faltering economy, corruption scandals and runaway inflation, Congress is now at a low ebb. Together the Congress coalition and its non-allied supporters had 276 seats, or a majority of nine. There is no guarantee that its coalition partners will work with it after the poll. Nor that its key "vote banks" - Muslims and those at the bottom of the caste system, India's tenacious social hierarchy - will provide the numbers needed for a third term.The BJP, meanwhile, is seen as the party of the urban middle classes, increasingly numerous as Indians move from the countryside to the cities, and as the cities become more prosperous. Some analysts describe the battle as pitting older ideas of class or community against new mass aspirations; others see battles between different "ideas of India"; still more talk of the regions. As ever in India, nothing is simple.
Key players
Narendra Damodar Das Modi, of the Bharatiya Janata Party, is a controversial, effective and ambitious politician who is currently leading the polls. He makes no secret of his desire for power, nor his 'Hindu nationalist" views and is seen as divisive by some. From a poor family, of a caste at the bottom of India's tenacious social hierarchy, he was born, almost literally, on the wrong side of the tracks and helped his father sell tea as a child to train passengers stopping at the station in his provincial home town in the western state of Gujarat. He was an unexceptional student at his government school, though opinionated and 'rebellious'.
Part of the RSS, the huge conservative 'National Volunteer Force' by his early teens, Modi showed himself to be an effective organiser and rose quickly in the movement. He moved across to the BJP, an ideological offshoot of the RSS though organisationally distinct, and worked his way up the ranks of the political party. In 2001 he was tapped to replace the then BJP chief minister, the top elected official, of Gujarat. He went on to win three successve elections there before being launched on the national stage as the BJP prime ministerial candidate last year.
Critics see him as an extremist who, in 2002, allegedly allowed or encouraged mobs to attack Muslims in towns across Gujarat after a lethal fire supposedly started by Muslims on a train full of Hindu pilgrims.
Modi denied the allegations and investigators have cleared him of any direct involvement in the violence, but his reputation still concerns many, particularly among India's large Muslim population.
Others, including some of the most powerful industrialists in India, say Modi is an honest and decisive administrator who has introduced policies that have encouraged development in his state and could be reproduced across the nation if he were prime minister.
Rahul Gandhi, Congress
The pedigree of Rahul Gandhi, 43, as a national leader is unquestioned. His great grandfather was Jawaharlal Nehru, the independence leader and India's first prime minister; his grandmother was Indira Gandhi, herself a four term prime minister, and his father Rajiv was assassinated while seeking reelection for a second term as prime minister in 1991. His mother, Italian-born Sonia, is chairperson of the ruling coalition and president of the Congress Party.
But what is less clear is the ability of the largely untested Gandhi to govern a chaotic country of 1.2bn people which faces great challenges. He has no ministerial experience, nor any at state level.
Gandhi grew up in great privilege and was tutored at home with his sister Priyanka. He studied at Harvard and Cambridge, earning a masters in Development Studies, and worked for a short time as a management consultant.
He entered politics in 2004, the year the Congress Party returned to power, and was elected from the parliamentary seat of Amethi, once held by his father and a family bastion. In 2007 he was appointed to several senior positions within the party and launched a series of internal reforms designed to make the organisation more transparent, meritocratic and democratic. Last year he was made vice president – junior only to his mother – and has led the campaign in the 2014 elections despite not having been formally declared as a prime ministerial candidate.
Gandhi, who is unmarried, is reclusive and rarely speaks to the media. In a rare recent interview, he said he has never sought power and opposes dynasty in politics. He wants to empower women in India and young people, as well as to make India "the centre of manufacturing in the world".
Arvind Kejriwal, Aam Admi party
Arvind Kejriwal is the maverick outsider who threatens – or at least wants - to overturn an entrenched political system. A 45 year old tax inspector turned activist, Kejriwal first gained public attention during the India-wide agitation against corruption three years ago. He founded his political party, the Aam Admi (Common Man) Party or AAP in the wake of that campaign, with a basic aim of fighting graft, bringing better governance and cleaning up the murky and opaque world of Indian politics. Last year the AAP surprised observers and won enough seats in Delhi to briefly hold power.
Critics said Kejriwal's tenure as chief minister of the capital proved that, though a highly effective mobiliser and protestor, the qualified engineer was a less successful administrator and temperamentally unsuited to making the many compromises necessary to run a country as complicated as India. They also attacked measures such as increasing subsidies of water supply as "populist".
Supporters simply said that, unlike most other local politicians, Kejriwal was committed to principles not simply power and maintained that gestures such as refusing the security cover, luxury accomodation and red car beacon with which top Indian bureaucrats, military officers and politicians force traffic aside sent a powerful message.
Married with two children, son of a minor bureaucrat who grew up in smalltown northern India, he appeals many Indians of a similar background frustrated by the failure of the state to provide basic services such as education, security and power. However, if on issues such as campaign funding Kejriwal's stance is clear, his exact economic or social policies are less so. Most seem far from a clean break with the statist model that has dominated in India for so long.
Kejriwal passed some of India's toughest public examinations as a young man. Now is standing for election from Varanasi, the Hindu holy city, against Narendra Modi, the BJP prime ministerial candidate. Supporters say this is a gauge of his courage. Critics say it shows his hubris.
Other parties
In Uttar Pradesh, the state which sends most MPs to parliament, the Samajwadi and Bahujan Samaj parties are both relatively weak but could still have a role to play. Elsewhere, West Bengal is the powerbase of the Trinamool Congress, led by the fiesty Mamata Banerjee, and, in southern Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of Jayalalithaa Jayaram. Both could end up as kingmakers. Shiv Sena are close BJP allies in Mumbai. The Communists look set to be reduced to a record low. As for the new Aam Admi Party, no one really knows.
Key battlegrounds
So India's election is far from a two-horse race. Taking the 2009 results of the six most populous states - together accounting for over half of the Lok Sabha - we can see that the different battle everywhere with much local variation. The toughest fights for the main two parties will be in Uttar Pradesh, Andhara Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra. Congress should do well in Karnataka, relative to the expected debacle elsewhere.
Not surprisingly for such a mammoth exercise in democracy, the electoral maths is tricky to compute, with so many different races in different regions and a psephological map that is anything but uniform. But modelling a generalised swing to the BJP, taking votes proportionally from the other parties, we see that Modi's party would overtake Congress relatively quickly, but struggle to get anything like an overall majority. What happens next then depends greatly on what deals can be cut with coalition partners.Target seats, a data visualisation where we show how many seats BJP can win over Congress with different swings.