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Early Count in Indonesia Favors Largest Opposition Party Early Count in Indonesia Favors Largest Opposition Party
(about 17 hours later)
JAKARTA, Indonesia — Out of power for the last 10 years, Indonesia’s largest opposition party was leading unofficial vote tallies from Wednesday’s national legislative elections, the outcome of which will determine the final candidates for a highly anticipated presidential election in July. JAKARTA, Indonesia — Out of power for 10 years, Indonesia’s largest opposition party was leading unofficial vote tallies from Wednesday’s national legislative elections, as the country’s focus now quickly turns to a presidential election in July.
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, led by former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, was garnering around 20 percent of the vote in a 12-party contest, according to initial results from separate quick counts of official results conducted by Saiful Mujani Research, and a joint count conducted by the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and Cyrus Network. But if the final results from Wednesday are borne out, it will nonetheless be a disappointing showing for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, according to analysts, who noted that the party had been hoping to ride the coattails of the presumptive presidential candidate, Joko Widodo, the popular governor of Jakarta, to gain as much as 30 percent or more of the popular legislative vote.
The party, known as the P.D.I.P., has not placed first in an election since 1999, when Indonesia held its first free and fair polls in more than 40 years. The party’s declared presidential candidate is Joko Widodo, the popular governor of Jakarta, who is leading in national polls and has promised a “more people-centric” style of governance in a country that, while a member of the Group of 20 major economies, still has more than 100 million people living on $2 a day or less. The opposition party, known as the P.D.I.P., was garnering 19 to 20 percent of the vote in a 12-party contest, according to independent quick counts of official results conducted by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, a joint count by the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and Cyrus Network, and Indikator Politik Indonesia.
Under Indonesia’s complex presidential nominating system, a party must win 20 percent of the 560-seat national House of Representatives, or 25 percent of the popular vote, to nominate a presidential candidate, or it may form a coalition with other parties to reach either threshold. The twelve political parties competed for seats in the House of Representatives and in provincial and district legislatures, as well as in the Regional Representative Council, a second national parliamentary body that proposes and advises on bills related to Indonesia’s many far-flung regions.
While final official results could ultimately push the Indonesian Democratic party past the 20 percent threshold on its own, analysts said the party would regardless try to form a coalition that controls 51 percent of the House to contest the July presidential election. The quick counts also indicated that the Golkar Party, the political vehicle of the autocratic President Suharto, was, as expected, battling for second place with 14 percent of the vote against the opposition Great Indonesia Movement Party, known as Gerindra, with around 12 percent.
The early tallies also showed the Golkar party, the political vehicle of the late, autocratic President Suharto, battling for second place with 14 percent of the vote against the opposition Great Indonesia Movement Party, known as Gerindra, with around 12 percent. The P.D.I.P. has not placed first in any election since 1999, when Indonesia held its first free and fair polls in more than 40 years. Its chairwoman is Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former president and leader of the political dynasty built by her father, Sukarno, the country’s revered founding father.
Mr. Joko’s main rival, opinion polls have indicated, is Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and leader of Gerindra, who is promoting grass-roots welfare programs, protectionist economic policies and what he says would be decisive leadership. “Obviously it’s quite a big disappointment,” said Marcus Mietzner, a senior lecturer at Australian National University and author of “Money, Power, and Ideology: Political Parties in Post-Authoritarian Indonesia.”
Mr. Prabowo also rails against Indonesia’s political elite, claiming that they are selling out the country to foreign business interests. “It is really at the low end of what they hoped for, and what that means of course is they have to completely change the strategy of the coalition they will try to build,” he said. “They were aiming for a smaller coalition.”
“If you want us to become your servant, I say no, no, no,” he declared last month at a rally at Jakarta’s main soccer stadium to kick off the official legislative election campaign. Under Indonesia’s complex presidential nominating system, a party must win 20 percent of the 560-seat national House of Representatives, or 25 percent of the popular vote, to nominate a presidential candidate, or it may form a coalition with other parties to reach either threshold. While final official results could ultimately push the P.D.I.P. past the 20 percent threshold on its own, analysts said the party would be forced to try to form a coalition in the coming weeks with a hodgepodge of parties that fared less well on Wednesday — including other secular-nationalist and even Islamic-based parties — to secure 51 percent of the House to have a commanding position before July’s presidential election.
The quick counts indicated that Mr. Prabowo may be compelled to form a coalition with other secular-nationalist parties — or even willing Islamic-based parties — that finish lower just to reach the nominating threshold.
Golkar’s showing in the early results also suggest that it may be able to put a coalition together, but its declared presidential candidate, Aburizal Bakrie, is trailing far behind Mr. Joko and Mr. Prabowo, according to respected opinion polls.
“If Prabowo’s not on the ballot, he will try to torpedo Widodo’s presidency with a very loud argument about the democratic process,” said Marcus Mietzner, a senior lecturer at Australian National University.
More than 187 million people were registered to vote at more than 450,000 polling stations on more than 7,000 islands across Indonesia. Voter turnout was expected to be more than 70 percent, according to analysts.
Twelve political parties are competing for seats in the House of Representatives and provincial and district legislatures, as well as the Regional Representative Council, a second national parliamentary body that proposes and advises on bills related to Indonesia’s many far-flung regions.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono cannot seek a third term, meaning Indonesians will be choosing a new leader for the first time in 10 years.President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono cannot seek a third term, meaning Indonesians will be choosing a new leader for the first time in 10 years.
Mr. Joko still holds a strong lead in respected national polls and has promised a “more people-centric” style of government in a country rife with official corruption and poverty. Indonesia, while belonging to the Group of 20 major economies, still has more than 100 million people living on $2 a day or less.
However, Mr. Joko, a former mayor in Central Java Province who improbably shot to national political stardom after winning the Jakarta governorship in September 2012, will nonetheless go into the forthcoming presidential election campaign with less luster.
“I think those people who had hoped that he would be given the instruments to implement fundamental reform — and that instrument was a small, coherent coalition — they will be disappointed because he will have to include parties in his coalition that he had no intention to include. That will impact his ability to institute fundamental reforms,” Mr. Mietzner said.
On Wednesday night, Mr. Joko himself acknowledged while addressing reporters on national television that his P.D.I.P. would need other parties, but he warned that they should remember their place: “We don’t like the word ‘coalition.’ It sounds like power-sharing.”
Mrs. Megawati, who had harbored presidential ambitions herself, put off officially declaring Mr. Joko, popularly known as “Jokowi,” the party’s presidential candidate until shortly before the official campaign period began in March, a delay that analysts said prevented the party from using his popularity for maximum benefit.
“Apparently, it’s not so clear whether there was a ‘Jokowi effect,'  ” said Ramlan Surbakti, a professor of political science at Airlangga University in Surabaya, the capital of East Java Province.
He said the initial results appeared to show that the votes were widespread among both secular-nationalist and Islamic-based parties. The Islamic parties were not expected to do well. He said there was a general public dissatisfaction with the performance of the country’s democratic system, which remains rife with official corruption some 16 years after the fall of Mr. Suharto’s 32-year government in 1998.
This includes a series of scandals during the past five years in the national legislature, Mr. Yudhoyono’s own cabinet and even within his governing Democratic Party, which quick counts indicated had crashed from 21 percent in 2009 to only around 10 percent on Wednesday.
“I think the performance of political parties, as everyone knows, is not so good,” Mr. Ramlan said. “The news about corruption leads to perceptions that politicians don’t care. Swing voters are a remarkable 35 percent, so that might explain why P.D.I.P. did not do better.”
Mr. Joko’s main rival in July’s presidential election, opinion polls have indicated, is Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and leader of Gerindra, who, despite criticism from some quarters about his human rights record while serving in the military, is promoting popular grass-roots welfare programs, protectionist economic policies and what he says would be decisive leadership.
Mr. Prabowo, who analysts said should be pleased with the election results given that his party is only six years old, also railed during the legislative election campaign against Mr. Yudhoyono’s government, claiming it had sold out the country to foreign business interests.
The quick counts, however, indicated that Mr. Prabowo may be compelled to form a coalition with other secular-nationalist parties — or even willing Islamic-based parties — that finished lower in Wednesday’s polls just to reach the nominating threshold.
Golkar’s second place showing in the early results also suggests that it may be able to put a coalition together, but its declared presidential candidate, Aburizal Bakrie, is trailing well behind Mr. Joko and Mr. Prabowo, according to respected opinion polls.
After the polls closed Wednesday, Mr. Aburizal posted on Twitter that the elections “went well, smoothly and peacefully,” and said Golkar would accept the final results, which will not be officially released until May.
More than 187 million people were registered to vote at more than 450,000 polling stations on more than 7,000 islands across the vast Indonesian archipelago. Voter turnout was expected to be more than 70 percent, according to analysts.
Voting was orderly on the top floor of a traditional market in South Jakarta that was converted into a polling station for the day, with residents only complaining about the multiple separate ballots for the various races. Sitting at a table smoking a cigarette as he waited for his name to be called to get his ballots, Eko Sukarso, 42, said he would vote for Gerindra.Voting was orderly on the top floor of a traditional market in South Jakarta that was converted into a polling station for the day, with residents only complaining about the multiple separate ballots for the various races. Sitting at a table smoking a cigarette as he waited for his name to be called to get his ballots, Eko Sukarso, 42, said he would vote for Gerindra.
“I’m hoping for change — something new,” he said. “My heart says support Prabowo. He’s more assertive, strong.” “I’m hoping for change, something new,” he said. “My heart says support Prabowo. He’s more assertive, strong.”
At a separate polling station in the nearby Menteng Dalam subdistrict, where President Obama once lived as a child, Ruswati, 52, who like many Indonesians has one name, said she would vote for Mr. Yudhoyono’s governing Democratic Party. At a separate polling station in the nearby Menteng Dalam subdistrict, where President Obama once lived as a child, Ruswati, 52, who like many Indonesians has one name, said she would vote for Mr. Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party.
“My husband is a civil servant, so I think it’s best for our family to support continuing the policies for public welfare,” Mrs. Ruswati, wearing a batik dress and a head scarf, said while waiting for a friend to finish voting. Mrs. Ruswati’s pinkie finger had been marked with indelible ink to show that she had cast her ballot. “My husband is a civil servant, so I think it’s best for our family to support continuing the policies for public welfare,” Mrs. Ruswati, wearing a batik dress and a jilbab, or head scarf, said while waiting for a friend to finish voting. Mrs. Ruswati’s pinkie finger was marked with indelible ink to show that she had cast her ballot.
Mrs. Ruswati said she felt so overwhelmed by the numerous photographs of candidates on each ballot that she decided to vote only for women wearing head scarves. Mrs. Ruswati said she felt so overwhelmed by the numerous photographs of candidates on each ballot that she decided to vote only for women wearing jilbabs.
“I think they represent my religion,” she said.“I think they represent my religion,” she said.
Gandi Taufik, a 35-year-old carpenter, said he was voting for Mr. Joko’s Indonesian Democratic party because of its traditional pluralist values. Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, but it has influential minority Christian, Hindu and Buddhist citizens. Gandi Taufik, a 35-year-old carpenter, said he was voting for Mr. Joko’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle because of its traditional pluralist values. Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, but it has influential minority Christian, Hindu and Buddhist citizens.
“P.D.I.P. will be good for the unity of Indonesia,” Mr. Gandi said. Otherwise, he said, “I’m afraid we’ll have religious conflicts, like in the Middle East.”“P.D.I.P. will be good for the unity of Indonesia,” Mr. Gandi said. Otherwise, he said, “I’m afraid we’ll have religious conflicts, like in the Middle East.”