Mo Farah is expected to win London Marathon – but it is not that simple

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2014/apr/11/mo-farah-expected-win-london-marathon

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At the start line, when pulse rates are dancing an inadvertent jitterbug, Mo Farah likes to gaze at his rivals and ask himself: am I faster than them? Am I tougher? And – most tellingly of all – if one of them confronted me, would I be able to take them?

In the past two years, Farah's mind has become a regular yes man. With every barbell thrust, positive affirmation and victory, his confidence surges. Long before his fingers are pointing at the gods and stars he expects to win.

Not this time. As Farah makes his final preparations for Sunday's London Marathon, his first attempt at 26.2 miles, he admits he is as "clueless as everyone else" about his chances. He is back on familiar turf, close to the scene of his 5,000m and 10,000m triumphs at London 2012, but he is in unknown territory.

As he admits: "Winning would be the greatest thing I've ever achieved. At the Olympics, I'm sure most people believed that if I had a bad day I would still finish third or fourth. Here we don't know."

This is the toughest test of Farah's career. It is not so much a step up as a fingers-crossed plunge into the dark. He has chosen the biggest of the big city marathons – London, this year's unofficial world championship – to make his debut. "I've gone straight in at the deep end," he says, "but that's what champions do."

Look at the field. There are six athletes who have gone under the course record of 2hr 4min 40 sec. The favourites are Wilson Kipsang, the world record holder who has run 2:3:23, and Tsegaye Kebede, the reigning champion, but dangers lurk everywhere.

No one is talking about Emmanuel Mutai, who finished second last year and has run 2hr 3m 52 sec, while Geoffrey Mutai, who beat Farah in the New York half-marathon last month, is apparently in the best form of his career.

The Olympic and world champion Stephen Kiprotich is here too, along with the 18-year-old sensation Tsegaye Mekonnen, who ran 2hr 4m 32sec on his marathon debut. Others could give the fancied names a bloody nose too - including Stanley Biwott, who was on world record pace last year before his body's energy levels sent him a Dear John letter.

The different dynamics of the marathon make Farah's task all the harder. On the track he is able to perform an act of mesmerism. His opponents know they should not allow the race to drift towards a sprint finish, yet they seem unable to stop it. His rivals on Sunday are new; they are not in thrall to Farah's old spells. Someone will strike out long before the finish.

Mo-sceptics also point out that he finished second in his last two half-marathons, to Kenenisa Bekele in the Great North Run in September and Geoffrey Mutai in New York last month. There were legitimate excuses – Farah had eased down in training after winning the world championships last August, while he was tripped in New York – but unlike many of his rivals he is yet to break an hour for 13.1 miles.

There is a further reason to doubt Farah's chances. Last year he became the sixth fastest man at 1500m. Is it realistic to expect him to beat the top marathoners at more than 28 times that distance just nine months later?

Perhaps Sunday's pacemaker Haile Gebrselassie, who has definite claims to be the greatest distance runner of all, knows what Farah is confronting better than anyone.

Gebrselassie was also fast at 1500m – quick enough, in fact, to win a 1500m world indoor title in 1999 – and also made the switch from 10,000m to marathon, where he became the first person to break 2hr 4min.

But mastery did not come overnight. In Gebrselassie's first marathon in London 2002 he finished third in 2:6:35 and he says he wouldn't be surprised if Farah emulated him. "Everybody in Britain expects Mo to win but if he comes in the top three it would be a fantastic achievement," he says. "And if he can run 2hr 5m, Mo will have done enough. Anything below that, fantastic.

"Kebede is the one to beat, no question. He's very strong now. I expect Kipsang to be second with either Geoffrey Mutai or Mo third."

Most expect Farah to break the British record but not the spirits of the men who live and love extreme distance. There are dissenting views. Steve Jones, for one, expects his 29-year-old British record of 2:7:13 to be "shattered" and for Farah to win.

The vibes from Camp Mo are also good. British Athletics' head of endurance, Barry Fudge, who works closely with Farah's coach, Alberto Salazar, is a scientist not a cheerleader. So it could be significant that he says Farah's physiology "would suggest he could do 2hr 5m fairly easily, although there's a difference between having the potential and actually running 26.2 miles. It's a long way but he has been training incredibly hard. He's been all guns blazing for this".

Farah, who insists his main target remains to dip under the British record, is also upbeat. He was encouraged by watching Bekele win the Paris Marathon last Sunday in 2hr 5min. "It makes you think, 'why can't I do it as well?'"

Paris was a procession. London is the athletics equivalent of war. "In my opinion, I think they will just keep going to try and get rid of me," Farah says. "That's where I've got to be patient and not chase it. I just need to run as even as I can and save energy for the last six or seven miles.

"Alberto is confident of where I am and so am I. It's all gone to plan. I'm really excited."

Unless Farah changes his mind in the final hours, he will not follow Gebrselassie and six other elite athletes, who will be near world record pace at halfway. Instead he will go through 13.1 miles at 62min 15sec – 30 seconds behind.

That has led to suggestions that Farah does not believe he can win. Fudge emphatically disagrees. "Mo is very much a competitor, a racer," he says. "He will be looking to go out and race against these guys. If that means running fast, that's what it will be."

In fact, intriguingly, Farah seems to be following the exact playbook of his coach's first marathon. As Salazar says in his autobiography 14 Minutes – the title refers to the amount of time he was technically dead after cardiac arrest in 2007 – when he ran the New York Marathon in 1980 he followed a simple plan: run the first 20 miles steadily to conserve his energy and let his track speed bring victory.

As Salazar writes: "Your mind can play so many tricks over the course of 26.2 miles. There are so many points where you can fall prey to either your panic or your exultation. Patience isn't always rewarded – it's possible to start too conservatively, lose contact with the lead – but nine times out of 10 you have more time than you think."

That is what Salazar will have stressed to Farah over the past few months. Now it is time for Britain's newest marathon man to prove his point.