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| Partial Afghan Election Results Show Runoff Likely | Partial Afghan Election Results Show Runoff Likely |
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| KABUL, Afghanistan — In the first official report of partial results from the Afghan presidential election, the candidates Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani appeared to be leading in a race where a runoff election was increasingly certain, according to data released by the Independent Election Commission on Sunday. | KABUL, Afghanistan — In the first official report of partial results from the Afghan presidential election, the candidates Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani appeared to be leading in a race where a runoff election was increasingly certain, according to data released by the Independent Election Commission on Sunday. |
| The commission warned that these early results, representing 10 percent of the votes cast in 26 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, could well change as tabulating continued over the coming weeks. The votes will be fully counted by April 24, and a runoff election would be held no sooner than May 28, officials have said. | |
| The results could well be affected, possibly dramatically, by widespread fraud at the polls. The election complaints commission said on Sunday that it had received so many serious fraud complaints that it might have to extend the time needed to adjudicate them. The commission said it had 870 incidents of fraud classified as serious enough to affect the outcome of the election, higher than the 815 such incidents recorded in 2009. | The results could well be affected, possibly dramatically, by widespread fraud at the polls. The election complaints commission said on Sunday that it had received so many serious fraud complaints that it might have to extend the time needed to adjudicate them. The commission said it had 870 incidents of fraud classified as serious enough to affect the outcome of the election, higher than the 815 such incidents recorded in 2009. |
| The commission had earlier said that complaints were fewer than in the hotly disputed 2009 election, but apparently reversed that view on Sunday. However, a spokesman for the commission, Nader Mohseni, said that the commission did not have records from the 2009 election, and could not be sure of any comparisons made between the two polls. | |
| With about half a million votes cast, Mr. Abdullah was leading with 212,312 votes, about 41.9 percent of the total, followed by Mr. Ghani, with 190,561 votes or 37.6 percent. Zalmay Rassoul, a former foreign minister, had 9.8 percent, and Abdul Raab Sayyaf, a warlord and former member of parliament, had 5.1 percent. | |
| Ahmad Yousuf Nuristani, the head of the election commission, warned that “these results are changeable, it is possible that one candidate is the front-runner in today’s announcement but the next news conference may be another candidate as the front-runner.” | |
| In addition, some votes may be disallowed. “We are investigating fraudulent votes very carefully, and there’s a strong possibility that some of the vote will be disqualified,” Mr. Nuristani said. | In addition, some votes may be disallowed. “We are investigating fraudulent votes very carefully, and there’s a strong possibility that some of the vote will be disqualified,” Mr. Nuristani said. |
| Even before the results were in, the apparent losing candidates were locked in negotiations with Mr. Abdullah in an effort to form coalitions in a runoff. | Even before the results were in, the apparent losing candidates were locked in negotiations with Mr. Abdullah in an effort to form coalitions in a runoff. |
| “These days everybody is talking to everybody,” Mr. Abdullah said in an interview on Saturday, while awaiting the release of the results. “We have no doubt in our mind that by taking care of some of the problems that occurred last time and preventing them from happening again there will be even a much, much clearer lead and victory, if it goes to the second round.” | “These days everybody is talking to everybody,” Mr. Abdullah said in an interview on Saturday, while awaiting the release of the results. “We have no doubt in our mind that by taking care of some of the problems that occurred last time and preventing them from happening again there will be even a much, much clearer lead and victory, if it goes to the second round.” |
| Both Mr. Ghani’s and Mr. Abdullah’s campaigns had confidently predicted that each would win at least 50 percent of the vote in the first round. | |
| Mr. Ghani, a technocrat and a member of Afghanistan’s largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns, seemed to garner widespread support among them. Mr. Rassoul, also a Pashtun, fared less well, but had strong support among government officials and urban elites. | |
| Mr. Abdullah, who is half Pashtun and half Tajik, is more closely identified with the Tajiks, who dominate in the north but are less numerous than the Pashtuns. So a Rassoul-Abdullah runoff alliance, which was among those being discussed, could be potent if the two campaigns can negotiate an alliance. | Mr. Abdullah, who is half Pashtun and half Tajik, is more closely identified with the Tajiks, who dominate in the north but are less numerous than the Pashtuns. So a Rassoul-Abdullah runoff alliance, which was among those being discussed, could be potent if the two campaigns can negotiate an alliance. |
| After the results were announced, Mr. Abdullah seemed in no mood to start celebrating, despite being the early front-runner. “It’s the beginning of the counting process,” Mr. Abdullah said, at his house and campaign headquarters. “Whether the remaining part of the process works in a transparent and fair manner remains to be seen.” | |
| Mr. Abdullah and President Hamid Karzai met on Thursday to discuss the election results. “He said that whatever the outcome, the winner will be congratulated by him,” Mr. Abdullah said of the current president. | |
| All three leading candidates, among a field of eight, complained about fraud at the polls this year. In 2010 parliamentary elections and the 2009 presidential race, more than a fifth of all votes cast were invalidated because of tampering and other irregularities. | All three leading candidates, among a field of eight, complained about fraud at the polls this year. In 2010 parliamentary elections and the 2009 presidential race, more than a fifth of all votes cast were invalidated because of tampering and other irregularities. |
| Some spectacular examples of irregularities were noted. In Khost, a member of parliament forced his way into a polling place at gunpoint and made off with the ballot boxes, according to the complaints commission. One candidate showed a reporter five books of 100 presidential ballots each, all marked for Mr. Ghani, along with a stamp used to authenticate the ballots and voter registration cards enabling people to cast their votes. The candidate, who did not want to be identified as the ballots should have been turned into the authorities, said he had gotten them from concerned soldiers who had confiscated them before they could be cast. | Some spectacular examples of irregularities were noted. In Khost, a member of parliament forced his way into a polling place at gunpoint and made off with the ballot boxes, according to the complaints commission. One candidate showed a reporter five books of 100 presidential ballots each, all marked for Mr. Ghani, along with a stamp used to authenticate the ballots and voter registration cards enabling people to cast their votes. The candidate, who did not want to be identified as the ballots should have been turned into the authorities, said he had gotten them from concerned soldiers who had confiscated them before they could be cast. |
| With many new controls introduced to prevent fraud, it seemed likely Afghan authorities would be able to counteract a great many attempts at fraud, as they had done in previous elections even without the same high-tech measures in place. | With many new controls introduced to prevent fraud, it seemed likely Afghan authorities would be able to counteract a great many attempts at fraud, as they had done in previous elections even without the same high-tech measures in place. |
| In other ways, though, the election seemed to be unfolding well so far. | In other ways, though, the election seemed to be unfolding well so far. |
| Election officials said turnout was expected to have topped 7 million voters, and could end up around 7.5 million. Even if a million of those votes were disallowed because of fraud and ballot tampering in some areas, it would still be a more impressive showing than the disputed and fraud-strewn 2009 election, which returned Mr. Karzai to power. | |
| The election results brought a seldom-seen outpouring of nationalistic pride among Afghans, and many people voted despite having to dip their fingers in indelible ink to prevent repeat voting, which would take several days to wear off and therefore carried a risk of insurgent retaliation in many rural areas. | The election results brought a seldom-seen outpouring of nationalistic pride among Afghans, and many people voted despite having to dip their fingers in indelible ink to prevent repeat voting, which would take several days to wear off and therefore carried a risk of insurgent retaliation in many rural areas. |
| While the run-up to the elections was particularly violent, including attacks by 39 suicide bombers during the two-month-long campaign period, many of those attacks were against foreign targets and almost none against the heavily guarded candidates and their campaign staffs. | While the run-up to the elections was particularly violent, including attacks by 39 suicide bombers during the two-month-long campaign period, many of those attacks were against foreign targets and almost none against the heavily guarded candidates and their campaign staffs. |
| A series of high profile attacks on foreigners in Kabul killed one foreign election monitor and helped drive many international observers out of the country. But as Election Day itself approached, the Afghan government declared a four-day-long holiday and shut down this capital city, blocking highways in and out, and flooding the streets with soldiers and police. | A series of high profile attacks on foreigners in Kabul killed one foreign election monitor and helped drive many international observers out of the country. But as Election Day itself approached, the Afghan government declared a four-day-long holiday and shut down this capital city, blocking highways in and out, and flooding the streets with soldiers and police. |
| Both in Kabul and elsewhere, the security precautions seemed to work, which in turn helped encourage greater voter turnout. Lutfullah Mashal, the spokesman for the Afghan intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security, said that the authorities had thwarted thousands of possible attacks during the campaign period, and arrested 262 insurgents, most of them would-be suicide bombers. | Both in Kabul and elsewhere, the security precautions seemed to work, which in turn helped encourage greater voter turnout. Lutfullah Mashal, the spokesman for the Afghan intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security, said that the authorities had thwarted thousands of possible attacks during the campaign period, and arrested 262 insurgents, most of them would-be suicide bombers. |
| “This is a great historic moment in Afghanistan,” said Mr. Nuristani, the election commission head. “Through this election process power will be transmitted peacefully from one president to another. It’s a great chapter in our history, and the high turnout even though there were many threats from the enemies of their country, show that Afghans want to determine the political destiny of their country.” |