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Support for Tories falls as post-budget boost is deflated after Maria Miller row Support for Tories falls 3% after post-budget bounce
(about 3 hours later)
A successful budget has failed to boost the Conservatives with voters, according to the latest Guardian/ICM poll, which shows the Tories dropping three points over the month since March. The budget has failed to boost the Conservatives with voters, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll, as the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, says Labour will continue to talk about the cost of living because people are likely to be worse off at the next election than in 2010.
George Osborne's "budget for savers" came 10 days after last month's polling and, with those reforms to pensions and ISAs lauded in the media, the party would have hoped for a bounce. The Tories have dropped three points to 32% over the month since March despite the positive media reaction to George Osborne's "budget for savers".
However, just days after the resignation of the culture secretary, Maria Miller, in a row about over-claimed expenses, the latest poll shows support for the Tories falling three points to 32%. The chancellor and David Cameron continue to perform well with voters when they are asked who is best to run the economy. And figures to be released today are expected to show that British workers have enjoyed the first rise in their real pay for four years, with wage increases finally overtaking inflation.
Labour remains ahead, on 37%, which is one point lower than last month. But in an article in today's Guardian, Balls claims voters will not accept the idea that they are better off under Cameron. He says Labour, which remains ahead on 37%, down one point from last month, will keep talking about the cost of living regardless of a "handful of statistics" pointing to improved economic conditions. Balls argues that a central issue of the next election will be Ronald Reagan's famous question: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"
In the long-running ICM series, David Cameron's party have clocked up only one worse score since last summer. After the Nigel Farage v Nick Clegg TV debates, the Liberal Democrats stagnate on an unchanged 12%, while Ukip bounces up two, to reach 11%. Balls will say that the answer to this "looks likely to be a resounding no", adding that it is "no wonder David Cameron and George Osborne are desperate for Labour to stop talking about this issue".
With the latest data from the jobs market confirming the strength of the recovery, the Tories are indeed striking ahead as the most trusted team on economic management – Cameron and George Osborne now besting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls on this score by 40% to 22%, a decisive margin approaching two to one. That is the biggest economic lead for the Conservative duo in more than two years, and the second-worst score for Miliband/Balls to date, on a question that ICM have asked regularly since 2010. The conventional wisdom at Westminster has long been that the economy would be crucial to the overall outcome of election 2015. Bracing for Tory claims that the squeeze on household budgets is coming to an end, and after the latest data from the jobs market confirming the strength of the recovery, Balls says: "Over the coming weeks, we can expect ministers to start telling us that the cost of living crisis is over. Will people buy it? I don't think so. Because for most families in Britain today, such a declaration, on the back of a handful of economic statistics, will only confirm just how out of touch this government is."
But after the passing of an immediate budget bounce, which briefly registered in surveys by other pollsters, the Conservative party may start to worry about a votes-free recovery. Coming days after the resignation of the culture secretary, Maria Miller, in a row about overclaimed expenses, the Tories' standing in the long-running ICM series has been worse only once since last summer.
The smallprint of the latest ICM poll confirms that many voters who prefer the Cameron/Osborne financial stewardship nonetheless decline to back their party. That is particularly true among supporters of Ukip – which has drained substantial support from the Tories ever since 2010, and has waxed this month as the Tories have waned. Its supporters now trust the Tories more than Labour on the economy by an overwhelming 54% to 5% margin yet continue to signal that they will vote for Farage over Cameron in a general election. But in the Guardian/ICM poll, the Tories' team is most trusted on economic management, with Cameron and Osborne now beating Ed Miliband and Ed Balls on this score by 40% to 22%, a decisive margin. That is the biggest economic lead for the Conservative duo in more than two years, and the second worst score for Miliband/Balls to date, on a question that ICM has asked regularly since 2010. The conventional wisdom at Westminster has long been that the economy will be crucial to the overall outcome of the 2015 election. But after the passing of an immediate budget bounce, which briefly registered in surveys by other pollsters, the Conservative party may start to worry about a vote-free recovery.
The Tories might hope to bring many such voters back to the fold by May 2015, but the more immediate challenge is next month's European parliamentary election. ICM asked about voting intentions here for the first time since February. It found that the net effect of a see-sawing couple of months – which started with Farage being on the defensive soon after having ditched all of his 2010 manifesto, but ended with his triumph in the TV Euro-debates with Clegg – was next to nothing on most of the main parties, with striking stability in the support of Labour (up one point to 36%), the Conservatives (unchanged on 25%) and Ukip (unchanged on 20%). The Liberal Democrats, after the Nigel Farage v Nick Clegg TV debates, have stagnated on 12%, while Ukip has bounced up two points to 11%.
The sole exception are the Lib Dems, who have shed three points from an already-dismal score of 9% in February to hit just 6% now. That leaves them tied with the Greens, who have over-performed in the European elections since 1989 and are defending two seats in Brussels. It leaves their support at less than half the 14% they scored in 2009, and also leaves them tied with the joint forces of the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, whose standing in the European stakes is 5% and 1% respectively, even though these parties stand no candidates in England. Clegg's apparent drubbing at the hands of Farage in those TV debates – the Guardian/ICM survey of viewers after the second found Clegg had lost by 69% to 31% – would seem to have taken its toll. Speaking yesterday, Clegg insisted that he wants to lead the Lib Dems until at least 2020 as he brushed off the bad set of opinion polls and predictions of a wipeout at next month's European elections.
The poll's headline findings may appear to suggest that Labour supporters for Westminster are more inclined to stay loyal to their party than for the European vote, but this seeming difference is produced by ICM's adjustments to the Westminster figures, which assume that many voters who refuse to say how they will vote next time but do report what they did last time, will revert to type. History suggests that this adjustment works well for Westminster, but the approach does not transfer so well to other elections. Without the adjustment, very similar proportions of Labour (87%) and Conservatives (84%) indicate they will stick with their party in the European ballots. The small print of the latest ICM poll confirms that many voters who prefer the Cameron/Osborne financial stewardship nonetheless decline to back their party. That is particularly true among supporters of Ukip, which has drained substantial support from the Tories since 2010, and continued to do so this month. Its supporters now trust the Tories more than Labour on the economy by an overwhelming 54% to 5% margin, yet continue to signal that they will vote for Farage over Cameron in a general election.
In the Westminster poll, support for the minor parties was: Scottish National party 4%, Plaid Cymru 1% and Green party 2%. The Tories may hope to bring many such voters back to the fold by May 2015, but the more immediate challenge is next month's European parliamentary elections.
ICM also asked about voting intentions in the European elections, for the first time since February. It found that the net effect of a seesawing couple of months showed stability in the support for Labour (up one point to 36%), the Conservatives (unchanged on 25%) and Ukip (unchanged on 20%). But the Lib Dems were down three points to just 6%.
Balls says Labour is planning to set out "radical but credible" policies aimed at tackling the "deep-seated cost-of-living crisis" over the coming months. Measures will include strengthening the minimum wage, ending the abuse of zero-hours contracts, expanding free childcare for working parents, and devolving economic power to Britain's towns and cities.
Balls makes it clear that Labour will stick to its cost-of-living argument even though statistics are likely to show that inflation has ticked down to 1.6% in March from 1.7% in February. At the same time, annual wage growth is thought to have been 1.8% in the three months to February.
If confirmed, those rates will mark the first rise in real pay since April 2010, a month before the coalition came to power. Pay growth has not been consistently above inflation since 2008.
"This week's data releases should confirm that wages are now rising faster than prices of goods and services," said Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank in London. "Previously, price increases were outpacing pay growth, meaning that households could afford to buy less and less with their pay cheques. The situation is now reversing and household purchasing power is on an improving trend."
With the general election just over a year away, Labour has sought to focus attention on how strongly inflation has outstripped pay growth, adding to the burden on households from the coalition's austerity drive. Inflation figures due to be published today are expected to show the pressure easing.
A supermarket food price war and lower petrol price inflation are expected to have brought the headline consumer price index measure of inflation down for the sixth month running in March. The retail prices index measure is forecast to have fallen to 2.5% in March from 2.7% in February, according to a Reuters poll.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 11-13 April 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 11-13 April 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.