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Earnings above inflation? Don't spend it all at once Earnings above inflation? Don't spend it all at once
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Put out the bunting. Crack open the bubbly. Invite your friends round for a party. Celebrations are in order because for the first time since the deep recession of 2008/9 earnings are rising faster than prices. Britain is finally getting better off. Well, probably.Put out the bunting. Crack open the bubbly. Invite your friends round for a party. Celebrations are in order because for the first time since the deep recession of 2008/9 earnings are rising faster than prices. Britain is finally getting better off. Well, probably.
A degree of hesitation is called for because official confirmation of the rise in living standards will only come with Wednesday's labour market data. This is expected to show that earnings growth in the three months to February was 1.7% or 1.8% higher than in the same three months of 2012-13. Inflation as measured by the consumer prices index is running at 1.6%, meaning the average Briton is getting richer by 0.1-0.2 percentage points a year. Don't spend it all at once, even assuming you are getting it, which you might not be because average earnings can be driven up by generous pay increases for those at the top.A degree of hesitation is called for because official confirmation of the rise in living standards will only come with Wednesday's labour market data. This is expected to show that earnings growth in the three months to February was 1.7% or 1.8% higher than in the same three months of 2012-13. Inflation as measured by the consumer prices index is running at 1.6%, meaning the average Briton is getting richer by 0.1-0.2 percentage points a year. Don't spend it all at once, even assuming you are getting it, which you might not be because average earnings can be driven up by generous pay increases for those at the top.
The CPI is not, of course, the only measure of the cost of living. Inflation as measured by the now unfashionable retail prices index (RPI), for example, is running at 2.5%, which would mean real wages were still falling. The RPI is no longer classified as an official statistic by the Office for National Statistics, but the CPI – which does not include high and rising housing costs – is not a perfect measure either.The CPI is not, of course, the only measure of the cost of living. Inflation as measured by the now unfashionable retail prices index (RPI), for example, is running at 2.5%, which would mean real wages were still falling. The RPI is no longer classified as an official statistic by the Office for National Statistics, but the CPI – which does not include high and rising housing costs – is not a perfect measure either.
Even so, the government can look forward to real earnings continuing to rise in the year between now and the 2015 general election. A growing economy means more jobs, although many of them are for the relatively poorly rewarded part-time and self-employed workers. A tighter labour market will push up earnings, while a stronger pound should help to keep downward pressure on inflation.Even so, the government can look forward to real earnings continuing to rise in the year between now and the 2015 general election. A growing economy means more jobs, although many of them are for the relatively poorly rewarded part-time and self-employed workers. A tighter labour market will push up earnings, while a stronger pound should help to keep downward pressure on inflation.
But the increase in real wages is unlikely to match those of the early 2000s, a period when the economy had been growing strongly for a decade and there were generous settlements for two key sectors of the economy: financial services and the public sector.But the increase in real wages is unlikely to match those of the early 2000s, a period when the economy had been growing strongly for a decade and there were generous settlements for two key sectors of the economy: financial services and the public sector.
Labour says that the cost of living crisis is not over, and to the extent that it will take several years to recoup the 10% drop in real wages since 2008, the opposition is correct. In May next year, real wages will still be a long way below where they were in May 2010. Labour says that the cost of living crisis is not over, and to the extent that it will take several years to recoup the 10% drop in real wages since 2008, the opposition is correct. In May next year real wages will still be a long way below where they were in May 2010.
But they will be rising, and that explains why George Osborne is confident Labour's cost of living campaign will be a less potent weapon in a year's time. Why? Because at election time, voters will be mulling over which party is more likely to improve living standards in the next parliament. And when opinion pollsters ask which party is the more economically competent, the Conservatives have a comfortable lead.But they will be rising, and that explains why George Osborne is confident Labour's cost of living campaign will be a less potent weapon in a year's time. Why? Because at election time, voters will be mulling over which party is more likely to improve living standards in the next parliament. And when opinion pollsters ask which party is the more economically competent, the Conservatives have a comfortable lead.