Ukraine crisis: covert wars, civil wars, proxy wars, and terrorism

http://www.theguardian.com/world/defence-and-security-blog/2014/apr/17/ukraine-russia-covert-wars

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Last weekend, John Brennan, director of the CIA visited Kiev. Apart from giving moral support to the interim Ukrainian government he offered what is described as "non-lethal" assistance, almost certainly kit to counter Russian jamming and protect their own communications.

"In today's digital and virtual battlefield, the game can be over before the first shot gets fired. And if Moscow's mastery over the digital domain can be countered, Putin might think twice about risking the expensive hardware that he has invested billions in upgrading since the Georgian war", says an article in Forbes Magazine.

The Ukrainian security service, meanwhile, refers to Russian "spies and raiders" operating in the country.

David Cameron and William Hague talk tough but are reluctant even to impose the kind of economic sanctions the Obama administration is threatening.

BP, with a 20% stake in Russian state-controlled oil company Rosneft, is reported to have warned British ministers about the potential impact of Russian retaliation. BASF, the chemical group, is reported to have expressed concern to German ministers. Europe imports 30% of its gas from Russia.

In this new era of covert wars, civil wars, wars by proxy, insurgencies, and terrorism, security and intelligence agencies, cyber warriors, and special forces, will play an increasing role.

Nato may reassure its Baltic members by deploying military hardware there but even at his most reckless Putin is unlikely to take such overt steps as to provoke the west into open warfare.

In his March 18 speech Putin spoke of a "fifth column" and "national traitors" encouraged by the west, and attempts to control the internet, as he feeds on a residual feeling among Russians that they were humiliated by the west after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And as Timothy Garton Ash, writes in Thursday's Guardian, Putin has more admirers around the world than the west might think.

How long will it be for the Kremlim, or broader Russian opinion, let alone other countries, to question Putin's ways? "In the longer term", writes a contributor to Strategic Trends 2014, just published by the Zurich-based Centre for Security Studies, "the biter of Putin's instruments and the basis of Putin's power politics may well founder".

The writer, Jonas Grätz, continues: "Economic performance is still Putin's Achilles heel, and energy revenues may not be a panacea for all woes". But in the meantime, the west must devise a policy to deal with Putin - just hoping Kremlin's foreign policy will change is a "non- strategy".

The Kremlin should be as concerned as the west by the civil war and presence of extreme Islamist groups in Syria, as it - and China - is by the opium production and potentially growing threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Navi Pillay, the UN commissioner for human rights this week condemned the "routine" use of torture in Syrian detention facilities, as a new UN report described how victims were raped, beaten, and had their teeth and toe nails pulled out.

Torture, it said, was committed by both sides in Syria where more than 150,000 people have so far been killed over the past three years, said the UN report.

On Monday ,71 people died in an explosion at a busy bus station on the outskirts of Abuja, Nigeria's capital. This year has been the bloodiest so far in Boko Haram's violent insurgency. It has received just fleeting publicity.

It seems the west can concentrate only on one international crisis at a time. Then, think of Iraq or Afghanistan - or the City of London - and look away.