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A Lead Grows, but Runoff Is Likely in Afghan Race A Lead Grows, but Runoff Is Likely in Afghan Race
(4 months later)
KABUL, Afghanistan — With half the votes counted in the Afghan presidential race, the candidate Abdullah Abdullah widened his lead, but a runoff seemed likely between the top two contenders, according to data released Sunday by the Independent Election Commission. KABUL, Afghanistan — With half the votes counted in the Afghan presidential race, the candidate Abdullah Abdullah widened his lead, but a runoff seemed likely between the top two contenders, according to data released Sunday by the Independent Election Commission.
Mr. Abdullah, the runner-up to President Hamid Karzai in the 2009 elections, had received 44.4 percent of the vote so far, followed by Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank economist and Karzai adviser, with 33.2 percent. Zalmay Rassoul, a former foreign minister in Mr. Karzai’s government, was a distant third, with 10.4 percent of the vote, followed by Abdul Rab Rassoul Sayyaf, a traditionalist Pashtun candidate and warlord, with 7 percent. Four other candidates shared the remaining 5 percent.Mr. Abdullah, the runner-up to President Hamid Karzai in the 2009 elections, had received 44.4 percent of the vote so far, followed by Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank economist and Karzai adviser, with 33.2 percent. Zalmay Rassoul, a former foreign minister in Mr. Karzai’s government, was a distant third, with 10.4 percent of the vote, followed by Abdul Rab Rassoul Sayyaf, a traditionalist Pashtun candidate and warlord, with 7 percent. Four other candidates shared the remaining 5 percent.
If that trend continues, neither Mr. Abdullah nor Mr. Ghani is likely to win more than 50 percent of the vote, forcing a runoff election.If that trend continues, neither Mr. Abdullah nor Mr. Ghani is likely to win more than 50 percent of the vote, forcing a runoff election.
The slow process of counting Afghanistan’s paper ballots, gathered from 34 provinces that are plagued by poor roads and communications, has been going on since the April 5 vote. But the election commission said the tally was expected to be completed by Thursday, when preliminary final results would be released.The slow process of counting Afghanistan’s paper ballots, gathered from 34 provinces that are plagued by poor roads and communications, has been going on since the April 5 vote. But the election commission said the tally was expected to be completed by Thursday, when preliminary final results would be released.
Those results will be subject to review by the election complaints commission, which has registered close to 1,000 complaints serious enough to affect the vote count. The election commission said, however, that the numbers released Sunday excluded any votes considered suspect; those ballots have been quarantined while being audited for signs of fraud.Those results will be subject to review by the election complaints commission, which has registered close to 1,000 complaints serious enough to affect the vote count. The election commission said, however, that the numbers released Sunday excluded any votes considered suspect; those ballots have been quarantined while being audited for signs of fraud.
“We’ll be able to let you know in a couple days if it’s going to a second round,” said Ahmad Yousuf Nuristani, the head of the election commission. “It’s too early to tell.”“We’ll be able to let you know in a couple days if it’s going to a second round,” said Ahmad Yousuf Nuristani, the head of the election commission. “It’s too early to tell.”
Mr. Ghani, the economist with 33 percent of the vote, insisted in a television interview that the results might change when all the votes are counted and allegations of fraud are addressed.Mr. Ghani, the economist with 33 percent of the vote, insisted in a television interview that the results might change when all the votes are counted and allegations of fraud are addressed.
The election authorities have not specified how many votes have been quarantined, but even if the number reaches a million out of the roughly seven million cast, the results are not likely to change enough to avoid a runoff election or to declare one candidate the outright winner, analysts say.The election authorities have not specified how many votes have been quarantined, but even if the number reaches a million out of the roughly seven million cast, the results are not likely to change enough to avoid a runoff election or to declare one candidate the outright winner, analysts say.
“It will not invalidate the election itself,” said Nader Mohseni, the spokesman for the election complaints commission. “That will not happen. In 2009, we had more serious complaints. If that one was not canceled, this will not be.”“It will not invalidate the election itself,” said Nader Mohseni, the spokesman for the election complaints commission. “That will not happen. In 2009, we had more serious complaints. If that one was not canceled, this will not be.”
Mr. Abdullah’s campaign has reportedly been in talks with Mr. Rassoul’s third-place campaign to form a coalition for the runoff. Mr. Rassoul had initially been thought to have the president’s support, but Mr. Karzai stayed aloof from the campaign — at least in public — angering some of Mr. Rassoul’s supporters, who had expected more help.Mr. Abdullah’s campaign has reportedly been in talks with Mr. Rassoul’s third-place campaign to form a coalition for the runoff. Mr. Rassoul had initially been thought to have the president’s support, but Mr. Karzai stayed aloof from the campaign — at least in public — angering some of Mr. Rassoul’s supporters, who had expected more help.
In the end, Mr. Rassoul was winning in only two provinces, Kandahar and Oruzgan, in southern Afghanistan.In the end, Mr. Rassoul was winning in only two provinces, Kandahar and Oruzgan, in southern Afghanistan.
Despite the talk of runoff alliances, Mr. Abdullah seemed confident enough on Sunday to reject the notion of a coalition with one of the losing candidates in a second round.Despite the talk of runoff alliances, Mr. Abdullah seemed confident enough on Sunday to reject the notion of a coalition with one of the losing candidates in a second round.
“I expect to avoid a runoff,” he said in an interview, “but if there is a second round, we don’t want to build a coalition, we want someone to win decisively. The Afghan people want to have a clear picture.”“I expect to avoid a runoff,” he said in an interview, “but if there is a second round, we don’t want to build a coalition, we want someone to win decisively. The Afghan people want to have a clear picture.”
The results released Sunday comprised 50 percent of the vote, and came from all 34 provinces. Most of those provinces were evenly represented, suggesting there was little likelihood that updated numbers would change the overall outcome — barring the disqualification of huge numbers of ballots because of fraud.The results released Sunday comprised 50 percent of the vote, and came from all 34 provinces. Most of those provinces were evenly represented, suggesting there was little likelihood that updated numbers would change the overall outcome — barring the disqualification of huge numbers of ballots because of fraud.
The results expected to be released Thursday would not be final until complaints of fraud were adjudicated, a process expected to be completed by May 14. A runoff election would take place no sooner than May 28, and possibly weeks later.The results expected to be released Thursday would not be final until complaints of fraud were adjudicated, a process expected to be completed by May 14. A runoff election would take place no sooner than May 28, and possibly weeks later.