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Black middle class 'drifting away' from Labour Black middle class 'drifting away' from Labour
(about 20 hours later)
Former equalities watchdog chief Trevor Phillips has suggested upwardly mobile black and Asian families are increasingly turning away from Labour.Former equalities watchdog chief Trevor Phillips has suggested upwardly mobile black and Asian families are increasingly turning away from Labour.
Second or third generation immigrants are likely to drop their "reflex" support for Labour as they move from inner-city to suburban areas, he says.Second or third generation immigrants are likely to drop their "reflex" support for Labour as they move from inner-city to suburban areas, he says.
There is also evidence to suggest that smaller parties will benefit from the apparent trend.There is also evidence to suggest that smaller parties will benefit from the apparent trend.
His argument appears in an essay for centre-left think tank Demos.His argument appears in an essay for centre-left think tank Demos.
The essay, co-written with University College London geography professor Richard Webber, will be published on Friday as part of Demos's quarterly report.The essay, co-written with University College London geography professor Richard Webber, will be published on Friday as part of Demos's quarterly report.
It draws on a 2013 YouGov survey in which 481 non-white voters were interviewed. The authors acknowledge their findings should be treated as "indicative" because of the small sample size.It draws on a 2013 YouGov survey in which 481 non-white voters were interviewed. The authors acknowledge their findings should be treated as "indicative" because of the small sample size.
Nevertheless, they observe: "In the complex arithmetic of the UK's parliamentary elections, it's not hard to imagine a relatively small shift in the distribution and turnout of minority voters having an amplified impact."Nevertheless, they observe: "In the complex arithmetic of the UK's parliamentary elections, it's not hard to imagine a relatively small shift in the distribution and turnout of minority voters having an amplified impact."
The authors used the voters' postcodes to try to find out whether black and Asian people living in predominantly white neighbourhoods were more likely to vote Conservative than those who lived in "cluster" areas (where ethnic minorities make up 30% or more of the electorate).The authors used the voters' postcodes to try to find out whether black and Asian people living in predominantly white neighbourhoods were more likely to vote Conservative than those who lived in "cluster" areas (where ethnic minorities make up 30% or more of the electorate).
'Ready to desert''Ready to desert'
"A significant proportion of visible minority electors who vote Labour in cluster areas are ready to desert when they move to white areas," Mr Phillips and Prof Webber conclude."A significant proportion of visible minority electors who vote Labour in cluster areas are ready to desert when they move to white areas," Mr Phillips and Prof Webber conclude.
Their analysis suggests:Their analysis suggests:
Mr Phillips and Prof Webber foresee these trends "intensifying" as the UK's ethnic minority population grows and relocates from inner-city areas where housing is more expensive.Mr Phillips and Prof Webber foresee these trends "intensifying" as the UK's ethnic minority population grows and relocates from inner-city areas where housing is more expensive.
The pair also suggest that voters from African, Caribbean, Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds were more likely to stick with Labour than Indian and Hindu electors.The pair also suggest that voters from African, Caribbean, Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds were more likely to stick with Labour than Indian and Hindu electors.
'Vital handful of votes''Vital handful of votes'
In 2010, the Conservatives received 26% of ethnic minority votes, compared with 41% for Labour. Conservatives received 16% of ethnic minority votes in the 2010 election, compared with 68% for Labour, according to the Ethnic Minority British Election Study carried out by researchers from Oxford, Manchester and Essex Universities.
That vote share for the Conservatives was a big increase on the 2005 election - when the party got 10% of votes cast by ethnic minority voters, according to research by Ipsos Mori. That vote share for the Conservatives was an increase on the 2005 election - when the party got 10% of votes cast by ethnic minority voters, according to research by Ipsos Mori.
Mr Phillips and Prof Webber highlight a "high degree of uncertainty" about the outcome of the 2015 election, which they say "invites some re-examination" of the role of ethnicity and culture in voting habits.Mr Phillips and Prof Webber highlight a "high degree of uncertainty" about the outcome of the 2015 election, which they say "invites some re-examination" of the role of ethnicity and culture in voting habits.
Noting that in the event of a hung Parliament in 2015, electoral success or failure could turn on "a vital handful of votes", the authors go on to identify types of constituency where the "cluster effect" could be particularly important.Noting that in the event of a hung Parliament in 2015, electoral success or failure could turn on "a vital handful of votes", the authors go on to identify types of constituency where the "cluster effect" could be particularly important.
Ones to watchOnes to watch
Seats with small Conservative majorities and large numbers of Indian voters are described as "vulnerable" to Labour, but "less likely" to change hands because of Labour desertion by upwardly mobile Indian-heritage voters.Seats with small Conservative majorities and large numbers of Indian voters are described as "vulnerable" to Labour, but "less likely" to change hands because of Labour desertion by upwardly mobile Indian-heritage voters.
These include places such as Hendon and Wolverhampton South West.These include places such as Hendon and Wolverhampton South West.
Seats with small Conservative majorities and large numbers of upwardly mobile black or Pakistani voters are seen as "more likely" to go to Labour.Seats with small Conservative majorities and large numbers of upwardly mobile black or Pakistani voters are seen as "more likely" to go to Labour.
These include the Enfield North and Dewsbury constituencies.These include the Enfield North and Dewsbury constituencies.