Cautious or bold: which path will Labour take to the next election?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/27/cautious-or-bold-labour-next-election-ed-miliband

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A battle royal is about to break out in the Labour party. After almost two years of quiet work behind the scenes, an exhaustive policy review chaired by Jon Cruddas MP will finally be concluded in a few weeks' time. Then the party must decide.

There is frustration in the ranks that it has taken so long and people near the top – divided between those who want a bold offer and those who would prefer a minimalist one – are beginning to take sides.

Labour's poll lead is flaky – just 2% in the Observer's Opinium survey today. Many MPs and activists campaigning for the local and European elections are crying out for new ideas to enthuse about on doorsteps; ones that go beyond the familiar exposition of a cost of living crisis.

But everything remains on hold, policy-wise, as pressure to say more grows by the day. "We could completely disintegrate unless we get something else to talk to voters about soon," says one influential figure in the party. "It is very depressing."

The question on everyone's mind now is not whether the Cruddas review will throw up exciting ideas. It is bound to, not least because the chair of the whole process is one of the party's most interesting thinkers; half a politician, half an intellectual.

The question is whether those ideas will be allowed to breathe, have life, and be turned into manifesto commitments on which to fight the next general election.

Far-reaching policy proposals on everything from universal free childcare, to the future of the rail system, to devolution, housebuilding and the long-term financing of the NHS and social care have been thrown into the mix. But how the bigger ideas are eventually presented and then how many, if any, become policy depends on who wins the key strategic argument now building up at the heart of the whole process.

One senior figure said that the key debate now was one between the "technocrats" – including many around Ed Miliband, though not the leader himself – and the "radicals", and that on all fronts there was still "everything to play for".

What that really means is that no one quite knows who will win the battle between the cautious and the bold. And crucially no one is sure whose team Miliband is on when it comes to individual policy issues or in general.

Will the party leader, a self-styled radical in many ways, agree with the "shrink the offer" lobby – those who are worried about making spending commitments and opening up flanks to Tory attacks? This group is said to include Labour's election campaign chief Douglas Alexander and, on some issues, shadow chancellor Ed Balls. Or will Miliband be bold and captain the radicals, including Cruddas himself, and Andy Burnham (on health) and Lord Adonis (on devolution to cities)?

Football analogies are being used to sum up the alternative strategic approaches. One Labour figure said: "It is a battle between those who want to scrape through with a dodgy 1-0 away win, taking no risks and with no fancy footwork, and those who want to go out all guns blazing and win 5-3."

The policy review will conclude in July and then a report will be agreed at the party's national policy forum (NPF) in Milton Keynes later that month. Some heated arguments are guaranteed. This NPF report will form the basis for ideas that will then be selected for the eventual manifesto.

In the meantime the party is in a state of nervous indecision, unsure what to say or think. This was evident last week after the Observer reported that ideas from former Labour minister Frank Field to raise national insurance contributions to help fill a spending black hole for health and social care were being discussed in the policy review. Party officials – seemingly scared at the very idea anyone might mention raising tax to pay for essential services – chose to pour cold water on the plan and denied it was even being talked about. But Field has since then been asked by Ed Balls to meet him to discuss the same proposals the party officials claim are not in play. Field will see the shadow chancellor on Monday.

Miliband can claim, with plenty of justification, to have been pretty bold since becoming Labour leader in 2010. He took on Rupert Murdoch and the bankers and has promised to hit energy companies by freezing prices if Labour wins the election. He has already taken risks and left himself open to attack from the Tories for being "statist" and anti-business. He replies by saying he is not anti-business but "anti-business as usual" .

But with the economy now recovering, his cost of living arguments have begun to sound strained and a little "last year". As a result he has begun to broaden the theme on to the nature of work and jobs in the 21st century. Last week he pledged more action on zero-hours contracts.

But the radicals want more. They want a series of eye-catching ideas that connect and add up to a vision to rebuild the country. They want to spread out power from the centre to rebalance the economy away from the south-east through real devolution, allowing councils or groups of them to take control of housing and other budgets in order to build more homes and to run their own local services. They want to think the unthinkable about how to pay for the NHS and social care in order to build a sense of security into people's lives; to explore whether rail fares could be frozen for commuters under a renationalised service and whether this country could offer a Nordic-style system of universal free childcare in the longer term.

Everyone applauds the way Miliband has kept his party united for four years, which is no mean achievement after 13 years in government, many of which were scarred by infighting. But this unity has been easier to maintain because the arguments about policy have been under wraps and are only now about to be joined by the party at large.

Most senior figures agree, too, that Miliband has a good chance of winning and becoming prime minister. They just disagree about how best he can get power back. The radicals think Miliband's best chance (given his own negative ratings against those of David Cameron) will be by building vision and excitement into Labour's offer, even if that might mean spending some money along the way. It is the bold agenda against the timid one; the visionaries against those who believe Labour can limp home with a few safe offerings that can fit safely on the back of a pledge card.

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