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Everton and Manchester City face sting in Goodison tale of two cities Everton and Manchester City face sting in Goodison tale of two cities
(35 minutes later)
After 357 Premier League games, 986 goals, and exactly 564 hours, 15 minutes and 43 seconds of football, this season's title race has, in essence, been distilled down to one simple question: can Manchester City travel to Everton, where they have won just once in 15 attempts, and leave with three points? After 357 Premier League games, 986 goals, and exactly 564 hours, 15 minutes and 43 seconds of football, this season's title race has, in essence, been distilled down to one simple question: can Manchester City travel to Everton, where they have won once in 15 attempts, and leave with three points?
True, there will be other important snapshots and scenes in the week ahead. But tomorrow's match at Goodison Park feels like the defining moment in this most topsy-turvy of seasons, during which the Premier League lead has changed hands 22 times. True, there will be other important snapshots and scenes in the week ahead. But Saturday's match at Goodison Park feels like the defining moment in this most topsy-turvy of seasons, during which the Premier League lead has changed hands 22 times.
With victory, the rickety gate to a second City title in three years is ripped off its hinges. Few would expect Manuel Pellegrini's side to slip up in their two remaining games, at home to Aston Villa and West Ham United, who managed just one point between them in April. But if City stumble, it swings back Liverpool's way. They are at Crystal Palace on Monday night and finish the season at home to Newcastle United. With victory, the rickety gate to a second City title in three years is ripped off its hinges. Few would expect Manuel Pellegrini's side to slip up in their two remaining games, at home to Aston Villa and West Ham United, who managed one point between them in April. If City stumble, it swings back Liverpool's way. They are at Crystal Palace on Monday night and finish the season at home to Newcastle United.
Everything, then, is set for a dramatic final act at Goodison on Saturday night , and the fact that the match is imbued with multiple subplots only thickens the intrigue. Will Everton fans be cheering for their team – or quietly hoping they lose in order to blunt Liverpool's chances? And, most crucially of all, can City shake off a series of horrible histories at Goodison? Everything, then, is set for a dramatic final act at Goodison on Saturday night , and the fact that the match is imbued with multiple subplots thickens the intrigue. Will Everton fans be cheering for their team – or quietly hoping they lose in order to blunt Liverpool's chances? And, most crucially of all, can City shake off a series of horrible histories at Goodison?
Everton are more than City's bogey team; they seem to give them the permanent chills. Pellegrini knows his side have won just once at Goodison Park since the 1993-1994 season – drawing four times and losing 10. Until recently that could be partly explained by City being, well, City. From 1994 to 2009 they finished above Everton in the league only twice. It was not that surprising they struggled at Goodison Park; they struggled everywhere. Everton are more than City's bogey team; they seem to give them the permanent chills. Pellegrini knows his side have won once at Goodison Park since the 1993-1994 season – drawing four times and losing 10. Until recently that could be partly explained by City being, well, City. From 1994 to 2009 they finished above Everton in the league only twice. It was not that surprising they struggled at Goodison Park; they struggled everywhere.
Since 2010, however, City have been permanently in the Champions League shake-up, had significant upgrades to their squad, gone to Old Trafford, Bayern Munich and Chelsea and emerged victorious, and finished above Everton in the league on every occasion. Yet their Goodison hoodoo has lingered: they have lost on their last four trips. Since 2010, City have been permanently in the Champions League shake-up, had significant upgrades to their squad, gone to Old Trafford, Bayern Munich and Chelsea and emerged victorious, and finished above Everton in the league on every occasion. Yet their Goodison hoodoo has lingered: they have lost on their last four trips.
Why should that be? Some Everton supporters believe the fractious transfer of Joleon Lescott to City in the summer of 2009, along with the steaming touchline brouhaha between David Moyes and Roberto Mancini in March 2010, made Everton more determined to beat their newly-moneyed rivals.Why should that be? Some Everton supporters believe the fractious transfer of Joleon Lescott to City in the summer of 2009, along with the steaming touchline brouhaha between David Moyes and Roberto Mancini in March 2010, made Everton more determined to beat their newly-moneyed rivals.
As Everton fan James Topping explains: "Moyes was outraged at the way Mark Hughes courted Lescott, and the following game at Goodison felt much more like a derby. Whilst most Blues had some lingering respect for City – we could all relate to being a northern city's 'second club' – it felt like a new era. Although, of course, secretly most Blues wished it was us enjoying the spending spree rather than them."As Everton fan James Topping explains: "Moyes was outraged at the way Mark Hughes courted Lescott, and the following game at Goodison felt much more like a derby. Whilst most Blues had some lingering respect for City – we could all relate to being a northern city's 'second club' – it felt like a new era. Although, of course, secretly most Blues wished it was us enjoying the spending spree rather than them."
There may be a more prosaic reason too: luck. In their last four visits to Everton, City have had 18 shots on target and scored just once. In their last four Premier League trips to Old Trafford, City's 17 shots on target have led to 12 goals and three victories. There may be a more prosaic reason too: luck. In their last four visits to Everton, City have had 18 shots on target and scored once. In their last four Premier League trips to Old Trafford, City's 17 shots on target have led to 12 goals and three victories.
This time the odds – like the title momentum – are firmly pointing Manchester City's way. But a trip to Everton is almost as tough as it gets: Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United have lost at Goodison this season while only Liverpool, Chelsea and City have won more league matches at home. Indeed, Everton's average home points tally of 2.33 – from 13 wins, three draws and two defeats – is their best since they won the title in 1987. This time the odds – like the title momentum – are firmly pointing Manchester City's way but a trip to Everton is almost as tough as it gets: Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United have lost at Goodison this season while only Liverpool, Chelsea and City have won more league matches at home. Everton's average home points tally of 2.33 – from 13 wins, three draws and two defeats – is their best since they won the title in 1987.
Yet some Everton fans, having seen their chances of a Champions League spot sunk at Southampton, are happy to lose. The last thing they want is to help their frenemies across Stanley Park win the title.Yet some Everton fans, having seen their chances of a Champions League spot sunk at Southampton, are happy to lose. The last thing they want is to help their frenemies across Stanley Park win the title.
As one poster on the Grand Old Team website, an Everton supporters' forum, puts it: "If we beat City do you really think [Liverpool] will be pally and appreciative? I know for a fact if they win it every single Red I know will say 'You can come and look at our trophy' [and] 'when did you last win something?' And it won't stop for years!"As one poster on the Grand Old Team website, an Everton supporters' forum, puts it: "If we beat City do you really think [Liverpool] will be pally and appreciative? I know for a fact if they win it every single Red I know will say 'You can come and look at our trophy' [and] 'when did you last win something?' And it won't stop for years!"
Another fan warns that Liverpool winning the title would "marginalise Everton even further as the perceived second club in the city, further reducing our chances of proper investment, attracting better players. This is why it is not wrong to prefer a City win. Bigger picture." Another fan warns that Liverpool winning the title would "marginalise Everton even further as the perceived second club in the city, further reducing our chances of proper investment, attracting better players. This is why it is not wrong to prefer a City win. Bigger picture".
But the Everton manager, Roberto Martínez, is clear: his team will not lie down for anyone. "Helping other teams is not the way we do our work," he insists. The Everton manager, Roberto Martínez, is clear: his team will not lie down for anyone. "Helping other teams is not the way we do our work," he says.
Martínez is without Gareth Barry, who is unable to play under the terms of his loan agreement with City, and so Leon Osman is likely to be his deep-lying protector. However, Leighton Baines should return after limping off against Southampton with a knee injury along with their ageless defensive linchpin Sylvain Distin. Martínez is without Gareth Barry, who is unable to play under the terms of his loan agreement with City, and so Leon Osman is likely to be Everton's deep-lying protector. Leighton Baines should return after limping off against Southampton with a knee injury along with their ageless defensive linchpin Sylvain Distin.
Meanwhile as City travel along the M62, much is being made of their indifferent away record. But while it is not particularly impressive against the top sides – a 2-1 defeat to Chelsea, a 3-2 loss at Liverpool, a middling 1-1 draw against an Arsenal side that had been humbled 6-0 at Chelsea the previous week – it is improving. In fact, after taking just eight points from their opening eight away games, City have taken more points away from home – 27 – than any other team since the start of December. Meanwhile as City travel along the M62, much is being made of their indifferent away record. It is not particularly impressive against the top sides – a 2-1 defeat to Chelsea, a 3-2 loss at Liverpool, a middling 1-1 draw against an Arsenal side who had been humbled 6-0 at Chelsea the previous week – but it is improving. After taking only eight points from their opening eight away games, City have taken more points away from home – 27 – than any other team since the start of December.
How can we explain the change? Partly it is because they have stopped the early-season bloopers: Joe Hart pawing and missing at a corner allowing Frazier Campbell to score during a 3-2 defeat at Cardiff City; Hart unnecessarily charging out of his goal against Chelsea, missing Matija Nastasic's header before Fernando Torres slotted home a late winner; the City defence being confused by Brad Guzan's route-one delivery against Aston Villa, leaving Andrea Weimann to seal a shock upset.How can we explain the change? Partly it is because they have stopped the early-season bloopers: Joe Hart pawing and missing at a corner allowing Frazier Campbell to score during a 3-2 defeat at Cardiff City; Hart unnecessarily charging out of his goal against Chelsea, missing Matija Nastasic's header before Fernando Torres slotted home a late winner; the City defence being confused by Brad Guzan's route-one delivery against Aston Villa, leaving Andrea Weimann to seal a shock upset.
Opta's data shows that City made 10 defensive errors leading to a shot on goal in their opening eight matches – and six of them went in. In the last 10 games they have made just seven errors, conceding three times. At the other end they have become more deadly: in their first eight away games their percentage of shots to goals ratio was 11.7%. In the last 10 matches it has been 20.69%. Opta's data shows that City made 10 defensive errors leading to a shot on goal in their opening eight matches – and six went in. In the last 10 games they have made only seven errors, conceding three times. At the other end they have become more deadly: in their first eight away games their percentage of shots to goals ratio was 11.7%. In the last 10 matches it has been 20.69%.
Fewer errors, more clinical finishing, better results: it is hardly rocket scienceFewer errors, more clinical finishing, better results: it is hardly rocket science
But Ben Pugsley, the co-editor of analytics website Statsbomb.com, points out the underlying reason. After the first eight games of the season, Pellegrini was able to use David Silva more regularly and settled on a centre-back pairing of Kompany and Martín Demichelis. The Argentinian is often derided for having the pace of a JCB, and a turning circle to match, but Pellegrini has been rewarded for his faith. Ben Pugsley, the co-editor of analytics website Statsbomb.com, points out the underlying reason. After the first eight games, Pellegrini was able to use the midfielder David Silva more regularly and settled on a centre-back pairing of Kompany and Martín Demichelis. The Argentinian is often derided for having the pace of a JCB, and a turning circle to match, but Pellegrini has been rewarded for his faith.
"Did injuries and Peligrini not knowing his best team hurt City early in the season away from home?" asks Pugsley. "Kompany played just 270 minutes in their first eight games but has played 820 minutes since. With Demichelis those numbers are 360 and 810 minutes. Meanwhile Silva, who played in just three of City's away games has played 703 in 10 games since, sometimes as a second striker in Sergio Agüero's absence." "Did injuries and Pellegrini not knowing his best team hurt City early in the season away from home?" asks Pugsley. "Kompany played only 270 minutes in their first eight games but has played 820 minutes since. With Demichelis those numbers are 360 and 810 minutes. Meanwhile Silva, who played in just three of City's away games has played 703 in 10 games since, sometimes as a second striker in Sergio Agüero's absence."
No midfielder has scored more goals this season than Yaya Touré, who has 19 in the Premier League. And no striker has scored more frequently based on time on the pitch than Agüero, whose 16 goals have come at a rate of one every 89 minutes – better even than Luis Suárez, who has managed one every 93 minutes. No midfielder has scored more goals this season than Yaya Touré, who has 19 in the Premier League. And no striker has scored more frequently based on time on the pitch than Agüero, whose 16 goals have come at a rate of one every 89 minutes – better than Luis Suárez, who has managed one every 93 minutes.
All this explains why City are rightful favourites against Everton. But only one man in their team on Saturday evening – Vincent Kompany – has tasted victory in their colours at Goodison Park: a 2-1 win, courtesy of goals from Stephen Ireland and Robinho, back in April 2009. Their teamsheet that day shows a squad in chrysalis – their defence included Shay Given, Richard Dunne and Wayne Bridge – and they finished the season in 10th, 40 points behind champions Manchester United. All this explains why City are rightful favourites against Everton but only one man in their team on Saturday evening – Vincent Kompany – has tasted victory in their colours at Goodison Park: a 2-1 win, courtesy of goals from Stephen Ireland and Robinho, in April 2009. Their team sheet that day shows a squad in chrysalis – their defence included Shay Given, Richard Dunne and Wayne Bridge – and they finished the season in 10th, 40 points behind champions Manchester United.
This time, though, victory would be worth so much more. Three points and Kompany will expect to thrust the 10kg Premier League trophy above his head at the Etihad in a week's time, amid the streamers and ticker tape and discordant cries of "Campeones, campeones, ole ole!" A draw or defeat and it will almost certainly be Steven Gerrard revelling down the road at Anfield. This time, though, victory would be worth so much more. Three points and Kompany will expect to thrust the 10kg Premier League trophy above his head at the Etihad in a week's time, amid the streamers and ticker tape and discordant cries of "Campeones, campeones, olé olé!"
A draw or defeat and it will almost certainly be Steven Gerrard revelling down the road at Anfield.
It feels like we are about to see the 2013-14 title race's final sliding-doors moment. And at least one half of Liverpool will be praying that the curse of Goodison strikes again.It feels like we are about to see the 2013-14 title race's final sliding-doors moment. And at least one half of Liverpool will be praying that the curse of Goodison strikes again.