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International Observers Expect Tight Presidential Race in Panama Panama Rejects Incumbent’s Party in Presidential Vote
(about 11 hours later)
MEXICO CITY — A new subway system in Panama City, the first in Central America. A new, if controversial, highway bypassing the old quarter. A skyscraper forest in the capital, testimony to the influx of corporations and well-heeled immigrants. And an economy that, while slowing somewhat, is among the fastest-growing in the Western Hemisphere as the Panama Canal undergoes a $5.2 billion expansion. MEXICO CITY — Panamanians, enjoying one of the fastest growing economies in the hemisphere, nevertheless rejected the incumbent party’s presidential candidate — and the president’s wife for vice president — and hewed to tradition on Sunday by choosing an opposition candidate as its next president, according to preliminary results.
It would seem that the party of President Ricardo Martinelli of Panama, with approval ratings of around 60 percent, has much to give it a sharp advantage in the presidential election on Sunday. But the final round of public opinion polls showed his party’s candidate in a close race with two other major candidates who vowed to continue the big spending but without the iron fist and cronyism they say Mr. Martinelli has wielded. Panama’s election commission declared Juan Carlos Varela, who is vice president but broke with the governing party in a rancorous falling out and was stripped of many of his duties, the president-elect based on his capturing 39 percent of the vote, with more than 60 percent of the ballots counted.
Political analysts say Sunday’s election will be the closest of the four presidential contests since the United States invasion in 1989 toppled the Noriega dictatorship and ushered in a new era of democracy. Mr. Varela, a well-known politico whose family owns the country’s biggest liquor producer, was seven points ahead of the 32 percent won by the governing party candidate, Jose Domingo Arias, the former housing minister and a political newcomer. A third major candidate, Juan Carlos Navarro, a former two-time mayor of Panama City, had 28 percent.
Now, opponents of the incumbent party, the right-leaning Democratic Change, which Mr. Martinelli, 62, founded five years ago, warn that democracy could be under threat. Mr. Varela’s victory was a rebuke to President Ricardo Martinelli, who oversaw years of rapid growth and campaigned openly for Mr. Arias. Opponents seized on the choice of his wife as the vice presidential candidate as a thinly veiled attempt to hold on to and concentrate power. Mr. Varela campaigned against growing corruption and promises for a more transparent government.
Mr. Martinelli, a quick-tempered supermarket magnate who shook up the political establishment five years ago as an outsider with a commanding victory, is prohibited from seeking another term. But his wife, Marta Linares de Martinelli, is his party’s vice-presidential candidate, while a political neophyte, José Domingo Arias, 50, the former housing minister, is at the top of the ticket, leading opponents to doubt that Mr. Martinelli will give up power if the pair wins. It seemed Mr. Martinelli’s party had much to give it a sharp advantage: a newly opened subway line in Panama City, the first in Central America, and plans for an expansion. A new, if controversial, highway bypassing the city’s old quarter. A skyscraper forest there reflecting the cash pouring in from corporations and wealthy immigrants. And a growing economy, as the Panama Canal undergoes a $5.2 billion expansion that could accelerate it more.
Supporters of both Juan Carlos Navarro, 52, a former two-term mayor of Panama City representing the center-left Democratic Revolutionary Party, and Juan Carlos Varela, 50, of the center-right Panameñista Party, have accused Mr. Martinelli of corruption, opaque governing and illegally participating in the campaign with a spate of ribbon cuttings and warnings that the economy could falter if his party loses. But while Mr. Martinelli has approval ratings around 60 percent, the final round of polls showed the candidate of his right-leaning party, Democratic Change, in a close race. His two main rivals had vowed to continue the big spending but without the iron fist and cronyism they say Mr. Martinelli wielded.
His wife’s presence on the ticket also has been questioned, as Panamanian law forbids the sitting president’s blood relatives from seeking the country’s top two offices, though it is unclear if spouses fall into that category. Voters formed long lines all day, and there were few irregularities, said Jennifer L. McCoy, Americas director of the Carter Center, who observed the balloting. In one last-minute dirty trick she cited, fake editions of a major newspaper claimed that two candidates had withdrawn.
“Her nomination evidences a desire by Martinelli to remain powerful after the elections,” said Orlando J. Pérez, a political scientist at Central Michigan University who studies Panamanian politics and is in Panama City for the election. It was typical of the mudslinging in what political analysts said could be the closest of the four presidential contests since the United States invasion in 1989 toppled Manuel Noriega’s dictatorship — the newspaper Panama America reported even he had voted in the Panamanian prison where he has been since returning in 2012 — and ushered in a new era of democracy.
Mr. Pérez said her candidacy could backfire, as Panamanian voters tend to fret over concentrations of power. The opposition has run strongly despite Mr. Martinelli’s improvements — including social programs aimed at the poor, elderly and schoolchildren — because “the historic tendency in Panama is to vote for the opposition.” Opponents of the incumbent party, which Mr. Martinelli, 62, founded five years ago, warned that democracy could be under threat.
“Every one of the previous four presidential elections since 1990 has been won by the opposition,” he said. Mr. Martinelli, a quick-tempered supermarket magnate who shook up the political establishment five years ago as an outsider with a commanding win, could not seek another term. Alongside his wife, Marta Linares de Martinelli, as his party’s vice-presidential candidate, a political neophyte, José Domingo Arias, led the ticket. The choice of Mr. Arias, 50, a former housing minister, led opponents to doubt that Mr. Martinelli would have really given up power if his party had won.
Orlando Goncalves, a veteran political consultant in Panama City who is not working on the campaigns, said Mr. Arias was not well known and lacked Mr. Martinelli’s charisma and outspoken manner, which has thrilled supporters and irritated opponents. Mr. Arias had sought to ride Mr. Martinelli’s popularity with promises to continue big public works and social programs, but he lacked the president’s flair for the dramatic and blunt talk that endeared supporters and turned off opponents.
He said the polls suggested the electorate, nearly 2.5 million voters, was almost evenly split among the top three candidates, leaving the deciding votes to about 10 percent of the voters. Supporters of two other candidates — Juan Carlos Navarro, 52, a former two-term mayor of Panama City representing the left-of-center Democratic Revolutionary Party, and Varela, 50, of the right-of-center Panameñista Party — have accused Mr. Martinelli of corruption, lacking transparency in governing and illegally participating in the campaign with a spate of ribbon cuttings and warnings that the economy could falter if his party lost.
“It’s not so much that Navarro and Varela are close as much as it is that Arias has not gone up more,” Mr. Goncalves said. “Martinelli was impulsive, outspoken, traveled all over the country and ran against traditional parties. Now his party is just another one of the traditional parties and for all three there is ceiling of support, leaving about 10 percent of the electorate in play.” His wife’s presence on the ticket also was questioned, as Panamanian law forbids the sitting president’s blood relatives from seeking the country’s top two offices. It is unclear if spouses would violate the spirit of the prohibition.
He said signs that the economy was slowing — it grew 8.4 percent last year after two consecutive years of double-digit expansion — could sway voters, who also are paying more for basic goods as inflation rises. Panama has a wide economic gap, with more than a quarter of the population of four million in poverty. Crime remains serious. Infrastructure problems, including traffic, chronic urban flooding and power shortages, could also play against Mr. Arias. “Her nomination evidences a desire by Martinelli to remain powerful after the elections,” said Orlando J. Pérez, a political scientist at Central Michigan University who studies Panamanian politics and was in Panama City for the election.
said.
Analysts said that signs the economy’s surge is slowing — it grew 8.4 percent last year after consecutive years of double-digit expansion — could worry voters, who also are paying more for basic goods as inflation rises. Panama has a wide inequality gap, with more than a quarter of the population of four million in poverty. Crime remains serious. Infrastructure problems, including traffic, chronic urban flooding and power shortages, could also play against Mr. Arias.
Mr. Arias’s opponents have thrown sharp elbows — mainly at Mr. Martinelli.Mr. Arias’s opponents have thrown sharp elbows — mainly at Mr. Martinelli.
Rubén Blades, the Panamanian salsa star and actor who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1994 and served as tourism minister in the mid-2000s, posted a statement on his website declining to endorse any candidate but warning that electing Mr. Arias would constitute a re-election of Mr. Martinelli and be a “dangerous risk for Panamanian democracy.” Ruben Blades, the Panamanian salsa star and actor who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1994 and served as tourism minister in the mid-2000s, posted a statement on his website declining to endorse any candidate but warning that electing Mr. Arias would constitute a re-election of Mr. Martinelli. He called that a “dangerous risk for Panamanian democracy.”
“I state clearly that I reject any attempt to impose a re-election, be it openly or underhanded,” he said.“I state clearly that I reject any attempt to impose a re-election, be it openly or underhanded,” he said.
Mr. Varela has accused Mr. Martinelli and his sons of taking kickbacks in exchange for government contracts. Italian prosecutors are investigating whether the Italian defense company Finmeccanica paid bribes to foreign governments, including Panama’s, but no Panamanian officials have been charged and Mr. Varela’s supporters suggested that Mr. Martinelli put his wife up to running, in part, to ensure that an Arias cabinet would not pursue any case against him. Mr. Varela has accused Mr. Martinelli and his sons of taking kickbacks in exchange for government contracts. Italian prosecutors are investigating whether the Italian defense firm Finmeccanica paid bribes to foreign governments, including Panama’s, but no Panamanian officials have been charged. Mr. Varela’s supporters suggest Mr. Martinelli put his wife up to running in part to ensure an Arias cabinet would not pursue any case against him.
Mr. Arias in turn has accused Mr. Varela of being close to drug traffickers, a provocative claim in a country where Gen. Manuel Noriega was deposed to face drug trafficking and money-laundering charges in the United States. On Saturday, Mr. Varela found himself denying rumors that his American visa had been suspended, with a statement by the American Embassy backing him up. Mr. Arias, in turn, accused Mr. Varela of being close to drug traffickers, a provocative charge in a country where Mr. Noriega was deposed to face charges in the United States of drug trafficking and money laundering. On Saturday, Mr. Varela found himself denying rumors that his American visa had been suspended, with a statement by the American Embassy backing him up.
International election , who met over the weekend with Mr. Martinelli and the candidates, expected clean balloting, but a close result could tax the electoral commission’s ballot counting and woul be likely to generate a round of challenges.
“The big question is whether the losers will accept their defeat, and whether the contest will be so close as to strain the electoral infrastructure,” Mr. Pérez said. “There are safeguards, but I do wonder if they are sufficient in the context of an election that might be decided by less than one vote per polling booth.”