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Romanian and Bulgarian workers in the UK: the true facts Romanian and Bulgarian workers in the UK: the facts
(about 9 hours later)
More than 30,000 extra Romanians and Bulgarians are working in Britain compared with a year ago, official Labour Force Survey figures to be published on Wednesday are expected to show.More than 30,000 extra Romanians and Bulgarians are working in Britain compared with a year ago, official Labour Force Survey figures to be published on Wednesday are expected to show.
But this 25%-plus rise in their presence of the British workforce does not represent a surge in migrants from Romania and Bulgaria since the labour market restrictions on them were lifted on 1 January ; the bulk of the increase happened before then. But this 25%-plus rise in their presence of the British workforce does not represent a surge in migrants from Romania and Bulgaria since the labour market restrictions on them were lifted on 1 January; the bulk of the increase happened before then.
Such an apparent surge in the number of Romanians and Bulgarians coming to Britain is likely to prove incendiary within the current febrile political atmosphere of the European elections debate on immigration.Such an apparent surge in the number of Romanians and Bulgarians coming to Britain is likely to prove incendiary within the current febrile political atmosphere of the European elections debate on immigration.
"It is almost certain that we are going to see an increase in that number from the first quarter in 2013 to the first quarter in 2014," said Dr Carlos Vargas-Silva at the Oxford University-based Migration Observatory. "We would expect at least 30,000 more. It is difficult to predict, but that would be the minimum you would expect," he said."It is almost certain that we are going to see an increase in that number from the first quarter in 2013 to the first quarter in 2014," said Dr Carlos Vargas-Silva at the Oxford University-based Migration Observatory. "We would expect at least 30,000 more. It is difficult to predict, but that would be the minimum you would expect," he said.
It is possible for him to make that prediction because the numbers to be published by the Office of National Statistics will add a further quarter – January to March 2014 – to the previous three-quarters – from April 2013 to December 2013 – that are already published. It is possible for him to make that prediction because the numbers to be published by the Office for National Statistics will add a further quarter – January to March 2014 – to the previous three-quarters – from April 2013 to December 2013 – that are already published.
"These figures will not show how many Romanians and Bulgarians arrived to work in Britain between January and March this year," said an ONS spokesman. "They only show how many were in employment during that period. They do not show when they arrived in Britain.""These figures will not show how many Romanians and Bulgarians arrived to work in Britain between January and March this year," said an ONS spokesman. "They only show how many were in employment during that period. They do not show when they arrived in Britain."
The ONS publish the quarterly figures on employment of Romanians and Bulgarians in two separate datasets divided between those born in the two countries and those who have Romanian and Bulgarian nationality. The country of birth figures will always be higher because they people who have been in the UK a long time and become British.The ONS publish the quarterly figures on employment of Romanians and Bulgarians in two separate datasets divided between those born in the two countries and those who have Romanian and Bulgarian nationality. The country of birth figures will always be higher because they people who have been in the UK a long time and become British.
The figures by country of birth show that in January to March 2013 there were 72, 000 Romanians and 40,000 Bulgarians already working in Britain, making a total of 112,000. This rose to 141,000 between April to June last year before falling to 135,000 in July to September before rising again to 144,000 in October to December. The last three quarters will make up 75% of the latest ONS figure and so it can be confidently predicted that the number will be at least 30,000 above the 112,000 estimated in the first quarter of 2013.The figures by country of birth show that in January to March 2013 there were 72, 000 Romanians and 40,000 Bulgarians already working in Britain, making a total of 112,000. This rose to 141,000 between April to June last year before falling to 135,000 in July to September before rising again to 144,000 in October to December. The last three quarters will make up 75% of the latest ONS figure and so it can be confidently predicted that the number will be at least 30,000 above the 112,000 estimated in the first quarter of 2013.
But the real test of the impact of the abolition of labour market restrictions on these two countries would be to compare the 144,000 figure for October to December 2013 – the last quarter of 2013 – with the first quarter of 2014. This is likely to be a lower figure but a more accurate reflection of its impact.But the real test of the impact of the abolition of labour market restrictions on these two countries would be to compare the 144,000 figure for October to December 2013 – the last quarter of 2013 – with the first quarter of 2014. This is likely to be a lower figure but a more accurate reflection of its impact.
It would also be rather better to look at the figures for Romanian and Bulgarian nationals rather than those including British citizens who happened to be born in either country. These are slightly lower, with 103,000 in the workforce in January to March 2013 which rose to 125,000 by October to December 2013.It would also be rather better to look at the figures for Romanian and Bulgarian nationals rather than those including British citizens who happened to be born in either country. These are slightly lower, with 103,000 in the workforce in January to March 2013 which rose to 125,000 by October to December 2013.
It is worth noting that the number of Romanians and Bulgarians should be seen in the overall context of 1.54m EU nationals working in Britain which is similar to number of Britain living or working in other parts of the EU.It is worth noting that the number of Romanians and Bulgarians should be seen in the overall context of 1.54m EU nationals working in Britain which is similar to number of Britain living or working in other parts of the EU.
One thing the Labour Force Survey will not reveal is the main trend within EU migration which was disclosed in the last set of immigration figures : the far more significant movement of migrants from slow-growth economies of Spain, Italy and Greece to the faster growing British economy. The labour market figures do not give a southern Europe/northern Europe breakdown.One thing the Labour Force Survey will not reveal is the main trend within EU migration which was disclosed in the last set of immigration figures : the far more significant movement of migrants from slow-growth economies of Spain, Italy and Greece to the faster growing British economy. The labour market figures do not give a southern Europe/northern Europe breakdown.
The new ONS figures also only cover those in work; they do not include family members, students and others who have to live in Britain. For a more complete view, we will have to wait for the net migration statistics in August which will show what happened to migration flows from the two countries to the UK in the first three months of this year and until May 2015 when the full year net migration figures are published for 2014.The new ONS figures also only cover those in work; they do not include family members, students and others who have to live in Britain. For a more complete view, we will have to wait for the net migration statistics in August which will show what happened to migration flows from the two countries to the UK in the first three months of this year and until May 2015 when the full year net migration figures are published for 2014.