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Narendra Modi Prevails in Election Narendra Modi Prevails in Election
(about 5 hours later)
NEW DELHI — India’s opposition leader, Narendra Modi, swept into power as prime minister-elect on Friday, as voters delivered a crushing verdict on the corruption scandals and flagging economic growth that have plagued their country in recent years. NEW DELHI — Addressing a euphoric crowd Friday afternoon, Narendra Modi rallied the public to join him in taking on challenges of a vast scale. He has floated the idea of building “a hundred new cities,” of extending a high-speed rail network across the subcontinent and undertaking the herculean task of cleaning the Ganges River.
In a victory speech in Vadodara, the city in Gujarat state where he won his own parliamentary seat in a landslide, Mr. Modi addressed a wild, chanting crowd shortly after the Indian National Congress, which has controlled India’s government for nearly all of its postcolonial history, conceded defeat. He has been inspired by China’s model of high-growth, top-down development. But the country he will govern is India: messy, diffuse, and democratic.
“Brothers and sisters, you have faith in me, and I have faith in you,” Mr. Modi said, in remarks that were interrupted several times by the crowd chanting his name. “We have the capacity to fulfill the common man’s aspirations.” Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party won a historic mandate in the country’s general election on Friday, emerging with 282 of 543 parliamentary seats, more than enough to form a government without having to broker a post-election coalition.
The contours of the victory by Mr. Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and the defeat of the Congress party became clear even before election officials finished counting the 550 million votes cast in the five-week general elections. For months, Mr. Modi’s advisers had focused on crossing such a threshold, which they regarded as a signal that the country was behind an agenda of radical change.
After midnight in Delhi the Election Commission declared that the B.J.P. had won 275 seats and was leading in seven more, enough support to form a government without brokering a coalition deal with any of India’s fractious regional leaders. That would give Mr. Modi the strongest mandate of any Indian leader since Rajiv Gandhi took office in 1984, riding the wave of sympathy that followed the assassination of his mother, Indira Gandhi. The nature of that change has never been clear, though. Voters are seeking immediate economic opportunities. The party has proposed pro-business legislation like the easing of labor or land-acquisition laws. Mr. Modi is drawn to large-scale building and infrastructure projects, which he pursues with a single-minded critics say dictatorial style.
The celebrations of Mr. Modi’s triumph began while the counting was still underway. Drummers, stilt-walkers and women in colorful saris converged at B.J.P. headquarters in Delhi, where party workers had laid out 100,000 laddoos, the ball-shaped sweets that are ubiquitous at Indian celebrations. “He has a fairly clear idea of what he wants to accomplish, and he does not look for ratification from the market,” said Eswar S. Prasad, a Cornell University economist who has consulted informally with Mr. Modi’s economic team. “One could argue that in a country where there are far more words than actions thrown around, that this is far more preferable: A man who acts.”
Surinder Singh Tiwana, a 40-year-old lawyer, was among the revelers. “I can equate my jubilation today, probably, to my mother’s on the day I was born,” Mr. Tiwana said. “This is a huge change for our country, a change of guard. A billion-plus people have announced their mandate in no uncertain terms. They have voted for a progressive, stable government.” Mr. Modi’s planned economic reforms are certain to encounter obstacles once he takes power, among them a federal system that puts essential functions like land acquisition in the hands of state leaders.
Rahul Gandhi, the heir apparent to the political dynasty that has formed the Congress party’s backbone, appeared to have only narrowly won re-election on Friday in his home constituency, a stronghold that he carried by more than 300,000 votes in 2009. In a humiliation for Mr. Gandhi, 43, a group of workers gathered around party headquarters in the capital city, chanting “Bring Priyanka, Save Congress,” a reference to his younger sister, who is seen as a more charismatic politician. Entrenched national-level functionaries will resist efforts to strip their authority by eliminating red tape, a goal that was central to Mr. Modi’s plan to attract investors to the state of Gujarat. Changing tax policy or labor and land laws would require the support of the upper house of Parliament, which the Bharatiya Janata Party does not control. Meanwhile, voters’ expectations of immediate economic improvement are perilously high, setting the stage for rapid disappointment if Mr. Modi is seen as not delivering.
Abhishek Manu Singhvi, a Congress spokesman, conceded that his party had been defeated. “If the leads are correct, the results are conclusive,” he said in a telephone interview. But Friday’s enormous victory will give Mr. Modi “a much freer hand than the typical leader of such a large democracy,” Mr. Prasad said. The reasons Mr. Modi’s party succeeded in defeating the Indian National Congress, which has controlled India’s government for nearly all of its postcolonial history, will be studied for years. But they clearly reflect a rapid change in Indian society as urbanization and economic growth break down old voting patterns.
Another party spokesman, Randeep Singh Surjewala, also confirmed the loss. “We humbly accept the verdict of the people of India,” he said. “We shall continue to play with rigor the role of a constructive and meaningful opposition the role that the people of India have assigned to us.” For decades, the Congress party’s trademark initiatives have been redistributive, and the party introduced a package of major subsidies for the poor before the election. Voters, however, proved to be more captivated by Mr. Modi’s promise to create manufacturing jobs, which he has done quite successfully in Gujarat, the state he has governed since 2001.
The elections came during a period of rapid transition in Indian society, as urbanization and economic growth break down generations-old voting patterns. With his conservative ideology and steely style of leadership, Mr. Modi, who came from a humble background and rose through the ranks of a Hindu nationalist group, will prove a stark departure from his predecessors in that office. Mr. Modi, 63, the son of a provincial tea-seller, prides himself on being an outsider amid New Delhi’s elite, and he recently promised in an interview with Open magazine that he would “break the status quo.” He was profoundly imprinted by his years as a full-time activist for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a right-wing Hindu organization, and his earliest and most frequent trips as an elected official were to other countries in Asia, which shaped his vision of India as a manufacturing power.
During the victory rally, Mr. Modi referred to people born after British rule ended in 1947, saying they never had the “opportunity” to die or to go to jail to fight colonialism. “We did not die for independence, but we will live for good governance.” A cultural conservative, he is no admirer of the liberal intellectuals who traditionally support the Congress party. Swapan Dasgupta, a journalist who supports Mr. Modi, said Delhi elites were worried justifiably that the space for their work would shrink when the new government settles in.
“This is the first time people who were born in independent India have played a decisive role in the election,” Mr. Modi said. “I cannot say what the contours of the future political elite or political class will look like,” he said. “He has brought in lots of people who have risen from local politics, less of those people who are traditional dynasts. A new sort of people, perhaps a little technocratic. People not from the Anglophone elite, maybe.”
In his speech, Mr. Modi hinted at expectations of political longevity, saying that he had heard even small children using the slogan from his campaign that meant it was his turn to govern. “They will be coming to take part in elections after 15-16 years,” he said. “We are preparing the new generation also.” The mood at Congress headquarters on Friday was funereal. Top officials had prepared for a loss, but not for the crushing defeat they faced; according to final results from the Election Commission, the party had secured only 44 seats, a surprisingly low number for the party that was integral to India’s founding narrative.
Mr. Modi is a regional leader only the second ever to take the prime minister’s seat known for maintaining tight control over the bureaucracy and political system in Gujarat, the state he has led for 13 years. His image as a stern, disciplined leader attracted throngs of voters who hope that he will crack down on corruption, jump-start India’s flagging economy and create manufacturing jobs. The president of the Congress party, Sonia Gandhi, and her son, Rahul, made a brief appearance at the headquarters late in the afternoon, when celebratory firecrackers could be heard from B.J.P. headquarters nearby. Mr. Gandhi, who has never appeared comfortable in his role as the party’s standard-bearer, kept an odd, fixed smile on his face, acknowledging that the party had “done pretty badly.” His mother, who reinvigorated the party after her husband, Rajiv, was killed by a suicide bomber in 1991, conceded defeat without mentioning Mr. Modi or the B.J.P.
But his reputation also worries many people. He is blamed by many of India’s Muslims for failing to stop bloody religious riots that raged through his home state in 2002, leaving more than 1,000 people dead. Others fear he will try to quash dissent and centralize authority in a capital that has long been dominated by the Indian National Congress and the liberal internationalists who support it. “We believe that in a democracy winning and losing is part of the game,” Mrs. Gandhi said. “This time the mandate is clearly against us. I accept the mandate with humility. I hope that the incoming government will not compromise with the interests of society.”
“He is very much the man who came from nowhere,” said Swapan Dasgupta, a journalist who supports Mr. Modi. “There is a great deal of nervousness that the old establishment which ruled, that it will somehow be threatened. That may not be a bad idea, in terms of encouraging a greater deal of social mobility.” A Congress-led coalition won a solid majority of seats in 2009 parliamentary elections, but the term was tarnished by corruption scandals and a slowing economy. Party workers, dully flipping through television news channels in a room with portraits of four generations of Nehru-Gandhi politicians on Friday, complained that the party’s grass-roots workers no longer had contact with Mr. Gandhi and his advisers, and had failed to identify shifts among young voters.
“I think over all we are going to see a churning process,” he added. Rajendra Pal Singh, a clerk with the party for more than 30 years, sadly recalled a time when the party faithful streamed in and out of the party’s bungalow as if it were “a place of worship.”
Last summer, when Mr. Modi’s campaigners insisted that the B.J.P. could win the 272 seats necessary to form a government, the ambition seemed far-fetched. “Gone are the days of the Gandhis,” Mr. Singh said. “We have not seen people coming here to hug Rahul for the past decade on any of those festivals. That culture is dead and long gone, like the Congress party now.”
After a decade in power, Congress had succeeded in introducing a package of generous new welfare programs for poor and rural Indians, who still make up the majority of the electorate. Congress and its allies had a proven track record of campaigning in India’s villages, in contrast to the B.J.P., which has long been seen as a party of urban traders. Addressing a euphoric throng in the city of Vadodara after votes were counted on Friday, Mr. Modi was forced to pause repeatedly as he waited for the audience to stop chanting his name. Mr. Modi, normally an intensely solitary man, draws visible pleasure from his interactions with crowds, and he seemed on Friday to enlist their support for vast undertakings.
But Mr. Modi seemed to benefit from changes in the electorate. Nearly 100 million new voters were registered ahead of this vote, including an influx of young people, and turnout broke previous records, hitting 66.4 percent. “Brothers and sisters, you have faith in me, and I have faith in you,” Mr. Modi said. “This is the strength of our confidence that we have the capacity to fulfill the common man’s aspirations. The citizens of this country have done three centuries of work today.”
Compared with their elders, these young voters were unmoved by the memory of the Gujarat riots, which had prompted many Western governments, including the United States, to impose visa bans on Mr. Modi. They also proved far less emotionally bound to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, which has dominated the Congress party since independence. His supporters celebrated. Drummers, stilt-walkers and women in colorful saris converged at B.J.P. headquarters in New Delhi, where party workers had laid out 100,000 laddoos, the ball-shaped sweets that are ubiquitous at Indian celebrations. Among the revelers was Surinder Singh Tiwana, 40, a lawyer.
Shekhar Gupta, editor of The Indian Express, a daily newspaper, called them “post-ideological Indians.” “I can equate my jubilation today, probably, to my mother’s on the day I was born,” Mr. Tiwana said. “This is a huge change for our country, a change of guard. A billion plus people have announced their mandate in no uncertain terms.”
“These people are born after Indira Gandhi’s assassination,” he said. “For a lot of them, the 2002 riots are not even a faint blur. What is imprinted on their memory is five years of nongovernance, and a massive loss of white-collar jobs. Once you have gotten used to 7 percent growth, to go down to 4.5 is a real recession.”
The Congress-led government has often seemed rudderless in its second term.
Its prime minister, Manmohan Singh, a distinguished economist, was a barely audible figure on the national stage, and often appeared subordinated to the party’s president, Sonia Gandhi, who was setting the stage for her son, Rahul, to take over.
The party’s leaders responded slowly, if at all, to bursts of social media-driven street activism that coalesced around the issue of corruption, and after a brutal gang rape that shook Delhi in 2012. The party’s presumed prime ministerial candidate, Mr. Gandhi, was a stilted campaigner who always appeared a reluctant leader. In the final stage of the campaign, he ceded the spotlight to his sister, Priyanka.
In the end, Mr. Modi’s victory will be seen largely as a function of his opponents’ weakness, said the historian Ramachandra Guha.
“The context here is the opposition: His rival is an heir apparent who is a bad orator, unwilling to take administrative responsibility,” he said. Though Congress has, in the past, regularly returned to power after being voted out, Mr. Guha said he thought the dynasty’s younger generation might have trouble regrouping.
“The larger sociological shift is that Indian society is becoming more democratic and less feudal, less deferential to family privilege,” he said. “It’s possible that Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi cannot revive Congress, because India has moved on.”