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Q&A: Indian election results Q&A: Indian election results
(35 minutes later)
Who is the winner?Who is the winner?
Technically it is the Bharatiya Janata party which has won a landslide victrory in the powerful lower house of the Indian parliament, and will now almost certainly be able to form a government by the deadline of 1 June. In reality, however, the victor is the avowed Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, who has gone from being an unknown party official to prime minister in less than a decade and could now be set to radically transform the country. Technically it is the Bharatiya Janata party that has won a landslide victory in the powerful lower house of the Indian parliament, and will now almost certainly be able to form a government by the deadline of 1 June. In reality, however, the victor is the avowed Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, who has gone from being an unknown party official to prime minister in less than a decade and could now be set to radically transform the country.
How might Modi transform India?How might Modi transform India?
Firstly by getting the economy moving again, supporters say. The shine has seriously come off "Shining India" in recent years as growth has slumped from around 9% to less than 5%, threatening the employment prospects of the 10 million or so young people who enter the job market each year. Secondly, Modi may pare down, clean out and speed up a swollen, inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy, relaunch stalled infrastructure projects and bring in much-needed foreign investment. Firstly, by getting the economy moving again, supporters say. The shine has seriously come off "Shining India" in recent years as growth has slumped from around 9% to less than 5%, threatening the employment prospects of the 10 million or so young people who enter the job market each year. Secondly, Modi may pare down, clean out and speed up a swollen, inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy, relaunch stalled infrastructure projects and bring in much-needed foreign investment.
Why are some people concerned?Why are some people concerned?
Primarily because of Modi's alleged role in violence in 2002 in Gujarat, the state he has run since 2001. He is accused of allowing, or even encouraging, mobs to take revenge on Muslims after 59 people were killed in an attack on a train full of Hindu pilgrims. At least 1,000 people died in the riots, largely Muslims. Modi has denied any wrongdoing and a supreme court inquiry has found insufficient evidence to support the charges against him, but an aide was sent to prison for handing out swords to rioters. Modi's subsequent failure to reach out to India's 150 million Muslims and some of his and his associates' rhetoric during the campaign have raised fears that sectarian prejudices may be ingrained. Primarily because of Modi's alleged role in violence in 2002 in Gujarat, the state he has run since 2001. He is accused of allowing, or even encouraging, mobs to take revenge on Muslims after 59 people were killed in an attack on a train full of Hindu pilgrims. At least 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, died in the riots. Modi has denied any wrongdoing and a supreme court inquiry has found insufficient evidence to support the charges against him, but an aide was sent to prison for handing out swords to rioters. Modi's subsequent failure to reach out to India's 150 million Muslims and some of his and his associates' rhetoric during the campaign have raised fears that sectarian prejudices may be ingrained.
What about the charge that Modi has authoritarian, even dictatorial, tendencies?What about the charge that Modi has authoritarian, even dictatorial, tendencies?
Modi has a reputation for putting pressure on journalists and critics in Gujarat, moving or firing difficult bureaucrats and not tolerating contradiction or opposition. Some in the state talk of a "climate of fear". But he's also described as an intense listener, who is pragmatic and open to new ideas – if they can help him.Modi has a reputation for putting pressure on journalists and critics in Gujarat, moving or firing difficult bureaucrats and not tolerating contradiction or opposition. Some in the state talk of a "climate of fear". But he's also described as an intense listener, who is pragmatic and open to new ideas – if they can help him.
Why has he won?Why has he won?
There are several reasons but primarily it is because Modi offered a package which was immensely attractive to many people. He emphasised development throughout the campaign, promising jobs and opportunities to those who wanted a hand-up rather than the traditional handout. His unapologetic nationalism, and sometimes crude rhetoric, promises a power, security and respect to an anxious country which, despite its size, is hyper-sensitive to any slight. His reputation for effective administration promises order and efficiency – qualities rarely associated with Indian governance. He is supposed to have got Gujarat booming, which is something all those hit by price rises and power shortages around the country admire. And then there's his own humble background. Modi is an OBC. There are several reasons but primarily it is because Modi offered a package that was immensely attractive to many people. He emphasised development throughout the campaign, promising jobs and opportunities to those who wanted a hand up rather than the traditional handout. His unapologetic nationalism, and sometimes crude rhetoric, promises power, security and respect for an anxious country which, despite its size, is hyper-sensitive to any slight. His reputation for effective administration promises order and efficiency – qualities rarely associated with Indian governance. He is supposed to have got Gujarat booming, which is something all those hit by price rises and power shortages around the country admire. And then there's his own humble background. Modi is an OBC.
What is an OBC?What is an OBC?
This is a member of an "Other Backward Caste", as administratively defined. The caste system is a social hierarchy, grouped by occupation, and now made solid by successive decades, indeed centuries, of bureaucratic categorisation. The OBCs are low down the ladder and get various privileges as part of a vast affirmative action scheme. It is often said caste is only important at weddings and elections. But while it is stronger in the northern part of the country, it still determines status and thus opportunities throughout India. Those at the very bottom traditionally vote Congress, but up to a third of the population of 1.25 billion may fall into the OBC category – including Modi – and many of these voted BJP. This is a member of an "other backward caste", as administratively defined. The caste system is a social hierarchy, grouped by occupation, and now made solid by successive decades, indeed centuries, of bureaucratic categorisation. The OBCs are low down the ladder and get various privileges as part of a vast affirmative action scheme. It is often said that caste is only important at weddings and elections. But while it is stronger in the northern part of the country, it still determines status and thus opportunities throughout India. Those at the very bottom traditionally vote Congress, but up to a third of the population of 1.25 billion may fall into the OBC category – including Modi – and many of these voted BJP.
Why has the Congress Party done so badly?Why has the Congress Party done so badly?
Partly because it is led by a distant and uncharismatic candidate – Rahul Gandhi, the son, grandson and great-grandson of former prime ministers and a living example of dynastic power. Also because his efforts were hamstrung by chaotic organisation, a poor communications strategy and a message that basically consisted of telling voters that the last 10 years had not been as bad as they seemed to think and that Modi must be stopped. The party's popularity was seriously dented by corruption scandals, inflation and a lack of jobs, and there is a profound failure within the upper ranks of the party to understand the changes in Indian society. Partly because it is led by a distant and uncharismatic candidate – Rahul Gandhi, the son, grandson and great-grandson of former prime ministers and a living example of dynastic power. Also because his efforts were hamstrung by chaotic organisation, a poor communications strategy and a message that basically consisted of telling voters that the last 10 years had not been as bad as they seemed to think and that Modi must be stopped. The party's popularity was seriously dented by corruption scandals, inflation and a lack of jobs, and there was a profound failure within the upper ranks of the party to understand the changes in Indian society.
Is Modi hand in glove with big business?Is Modi hand in glove with big business?
He's certainly the favourite of India's biggest tycoons. Critics accuse of him granting huge concessions to win investment in Gujarat. Supporters say he has created a pro-business, pro-growth environment, not least by doing things like ensuring round-the-clock power supply.He's certainly the favourite of India's biggest tycoons. Critics accuse of him granting huge concessions to win investment in Gujarat. Supporters say he has created a pro-business, pro-growth environment, not least by doing things like ensuring round-the-clock power supply.
So how powerful will Modi be?So how powerful will Modi be?
A lot depends on the size of the coalition he puts together and its composition. Many argue that Modi's actual executive power will be limited by the BJP's relative weakness in the Upper House, the checks and balances within the system, the power of the 28 states and other factors. But then, Modi is known for achieving goals whatever the obstacles … such as being prime minister, for example. A lot depends on the size of the coalition he puts together and its composition. Many argue that Modi's executive power will be limited by the BJP's relative weakness in the upper house, the checks and balances within the system, the power of the 28 states and other factors. But then, Modi is known for achieving goals whatever the obstacles … such as becoming prime minister, for example.
Where will he go on his first foreign visit?Where will he go on his first foreign visit?
No one is very sure. Not the US, from where he is still theoretically banned for his actions in 2002. A destination in east Asia is most likely, perhaps even China.No one is very sure. Not the US, from where he is still theoretically banned for his actions in 2002. A destination in east Asia is most likely, perhaps even China.