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| Are the Conservatives going to win the next general election outright? | |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| The fish and chip kiosks are doing brisk business and the beach huts along Paignton seafront have been spruced up with a lick of paint. On this stretch of Devon coast – known as the English Riviera – things are beginning, tentatively, to look up. Just along the coast in Torquay the faded grandeur is being slowly reclaimed as tourists arrive and the high summer season approaches. A five-star hotel resort is about to be developed in the town that inspired Fawlty Towers. | The fish and chip kiosks are doing brisk business and the beach huts along Paignton seafront have been spruced up with a lick of paint. On this stretch of Devon coast – known as the English Riviera – things are beginning, tentatively, to look up. Just along the coast in Torquay the faded grandeur is being slowly reclaimed as tourists arrive and the high summer season approaches. A five-star hotel resort is about to be developed in the town that inspired Fawlty Towers. |
| At the last general election Torbay constituency, which takes in Torquay and Paignton, went to the Liberal Democrats with a majority over the Conservatives of more than 4,000. Now, with the economy improving, the Tories have this seat, like many other marginals held by the Lib Dems and Labour, firmly in their sights. | At the last general election Torbay constituency, which takes in Torquay and Paignton, went to the Liberal Democrats with a majority over the Conservatives of more than 4,000. Now, with the economy improving, the Tories have this seat, like many other marginals held by the Lib Dems and Labour, firmly in their sights. |
| Maria Savva, 35, and her fiance Andy Carlton, 41, own a high-street cafe and used to vote Labour but will go for the Tories next May. They give credit to the Tory leader David Cameron, rather than the Lib Dems' Nick Clegg, for raising tax thresholds (although it was a Lib Dem idea) and are grateful that the Help to Buy scheme allowed them to get on the housing ladder. | Maria Savva, 35, and her fiance Andy Carlton, 41, own a high-street cafe and used to vote Labour but will go for the Tories next May. They give credit to the Tory leader David Cameron, rather than the Lib Dems' Nick Clegg, for raising tax thresholds (although it was a Lib Dem idea) and are grateful that the Help to Buy scheme allowed them to get on the housing ladder. |
| "The Conservatives are helping to raise the tax thresholds and sort out business rates – as a small shop, we are now exempt, which is obviously helpful for us," Savva said. Carlton added: "They have also helped us buy our first property. The way the country's being run has worked in our favour." | "The Conservatives are helping to raise the tax thresholds and sort out business rates – as a small shop, we are now exempt, which is obviously helpful for us," Savva said. Carlton added: "They have also helped us buy our first property. The way the country's being run has worked in our favour." |
| It is by no means all plain sailing for the Tories in Torbay, however. Shop manager Simon Radmore, 35, thinks that Ukip could still split the Tory vote and let the Lib Dems back in. "I've always voted Conservative, but I think they're going to find it difficult. Ukip have got their claws in here and will steal votes from the Conservatives because of immigration." | It is by no means all plain sailing for the Tories in Torbay, however. Shop manager Simon Radmore, 35, thinks that Ukip could still split the Tory vote and let the Lib Dems back in. "I've always voted Conservative, but I think they're going to find it difficult. Ukip have got their claws in here and will steal votes from the Conservatives because of immigration." |
| But, after months in which Tory strategists have fretted about when, and if, the economic recovery would register with the public, there are signs that at last it may be doing so in some pockets of the country, and that the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems are getting the credit. Certainly Tory MPs at Westminster were in far better spirits last week. | But, after months in which Tory strategists have fretted about when, and if, the economic recovery would register with the public, there are signs that at last it may be doing so in some pockets of the country, and that the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems are getting the credit. Certainly Tory MPs at Westminster were in far better spirits last week. |
| "The mood is miles better than a few weeks ago," said a senior backbencher as he prepared to head off on to the local and European election campaign trail. "Nothing like a couple of good opinion polls and good economic news to turn things round!" | "The mood is miles better than a few weeks ago," said a senior backbencher as he prepared to head off on to the local and European election campaign trail. "Nothing like a couple of good opinion polls and good economic news to turn things round!" |
| It is very early days to talk of a sustained Tory surge, particularly ahead of this week's European and local elections. The Conservatives are resigned to coming third behind Nigel Farage's Ukip and Labour in the European poll, and could lose as many as 10 or 11 of their 26 seats in the EU parliament if their share of the vote drops below 20% from the 27.7% the party polled in 2009. | It is very early days to talk of a sustained Tory surge, particularly ahead of this week's European and local elections. The Conservatives are resigned to coming third behind Nigel Farage's Ukip and Labour in the European poll, and could lose as many as 10 or 11 of their 26 seats in the EU parliament if their share of the vote drops below 20% from the 27.7% the party polled in 2009. |
| Ukip, meanwhile, could more than double its number of seats, from 13 in 2009 to 27. The Tories are also expected to lose somewhere between 100 and 250 council seats, with Labour making solid gains. | Ukip, meanwhile, could more than double its number of seats, from 13 in 2009 to 27. The Tories are also expected to lose somewhere between 100 and 250 council seats, with Labour making solid gains. |
| But most Conservatives have factored in this week's setbacks and are looking ahead. "We will take a big hit, sure," says another Tory MP. "These elections will not tell us much about what will happen next May. This will be Ukip's high water mark. From now on it will be about the economy and leadership: Cameron versus Miliband." | But most Conservatives have factored in this week's setbacks and are looking ahead. "We will take a big hit, sure," says another Tory MP. "These elections will not tell us much about what will happen next May. This will be Ukip's high water mark. From now on it will be about the economy and leadership: Cameron versus Miliband." |
| Tory confidence is growing. Last week two opinion polls put the Conservatives ahead of Labour, the first time this had happened for two years. A survey for the billionaire Tory peer Lord Ashcroft showed the Conservatives on 34%, Labour on 32%, Ukip on 15% and the Lib Dems on 9%, while a Guardian/ICM poll had the Tories on 33%, Labour on 31%, Ukip on 15% and the Lib Dems on 13%. | Tory confidence is growing. Last week two opinion polls put the Conservatives ahead of Labour, the first time this had happened for two years. A survey for the billionaire Tory peer Lord Ashcroft showed the Conservatives on 34%, Labour on 32%, Ukip on 15% and the Lib Dems on 9%, while a Guardian/ICM poll had the Tories on 33%, Labour on 31%, Ukip on 15% and the Lib Dems on 13%. |
| The latest employment and economic figures also stoked rediscovered Tory self-belief. The number of people out of work in the UK fell by 133,000 to a five-year low of 2.2 million in the three months to March. And the Office for National Statistics announced the jobless rate had fallen to a five-year low of 6.8%. Although much of the rise in employment was accounted for by a rise in self-employment, the number claiming jobseeker's allowance in April fell by 25,100 to 1.12 million, and the total of unemployed 16- to 24-year-olds was down by 48,000 to 868,000. | The latest employment and economic figures also stoked rediscovered Tory self-belief. The number of people out of work in the UK fell by 133,000 to a five-year low of 2.2 million in the three months to March. And the Office for National Statistics announced the jobless rate had fallen to a five-year low of 6.8%. Although much of the rise in employment was accounted for by a rise in self-employment, the number claiming jobseeker's allowance in April fell by 25,100 to 1.12 million, and the total of unemployed 16- to 24-year-olds was down by 48,000 to 868,000. |
| At prime minister's questions on Wednesday, the sheer relief at the poll movement and abundance of good economic news fostered a mood of such elation on the Tory benches that, afterwards, it worried some Conservative MPs. "We do have to be really careful that we don't look like we have already won," said one. | At prime minister's questions on Wednesday, the sheer relief at the poll movement and abundance of good economic news fostered a mood of such elation on the Tory benches that, afterwards, it worried some Conservative MPs. "We do have to be really careful that we don't look like we have already won," said one. |
| In marginal seats across the country, there is progress for the Tories, but it is still uncertain. In another of their target seats, Birmingham Northfield, Labour MP Richard Burden has seen his majority decline since 2001. He won a majority of just over 2,700 votes in 2010 and the Conservatives hope to take it next year. | In marginal seats across the country, there is progress for the Tories, but it is still uncertain. In another of their target seats, Birmingham Northfield, Labour MP Richard Burden has seen his majority decline since 2001. He won a majority of just over 2,700 votes in 2010 and the Conservatives hope to take it next year. |
| Rebecca Fothergill, 35, a communications manager, recently bought a new-build house on the Rednal estate. A swing voter, she was warming to the Tories: "There have been fantastic changes since the coalition came in, in terms of benefits changes and in terms of tax – positive changes to recognise parents working and childcare. There also seem more jobs for students leaving university than there were a few years ago. Around here, in terms of regeneration, it does feel like things are prospering." But Harjimder Sandhu, 50, a first-generation immigrant from Punjab, India, who owns a fish and chip shop, said: "I can feel the economy is rising this year, more people are coming into the shop. But the economy of living is still very hard. I haven't raised prices in two years, and my profit is going down as food, especially, is more expensive. My staff are struggling to pay their bills. People can't afford to do a weekly shop at the supermarket. I will continue to vote Labour." | Rebecca Fothergill, 35, a communications manager, recently bought a new-build house on the Rednal estate. A swing voter, she was warming to the Tories: "There have been fantastic changes since the coalition came in, in terms of benefits changes and in terms of tax – positive changes to recognise parents working and childcare. There also seem more jobs for students leaving university than there were a few years ago. Around here, in terms of regeneration, it does feel like things are prospering." But Harjimder Sandhu, 50, a first-generation immigrant from Punjab, India, who owns a fish and chip shop, said: "I can feel the economy is rising this year, more people are coming into the shop. But the economy of living is still very hard. I haven't raised prices in two years, and my profit is going down as food, especially, is more expensive. My staff are struggling to pay their bills. People can't afford to do a weekly shop at the supermarket. I will continue to vote Labour." |
| For Cameron's party the signs are good, but they have by no means sealed the deal with the electorate. Tory strategists know that the economy is vital, but discipline will also be key. The cohesion of the coalition will be difficult to maintain but will, to some extent, be beyond their control. The year-long run to the general election, with little legislation in the pipeline to occupy the governing parties, will create a void in which Conservatives and Lib Dems will go their own ways in the name of "differentiation". There is talk of the Lib Dems pondering not just "aggressive de-coupling" but a "nuclear option" well before next May, in which they would break the coalition over a particular issue, to assert their identity and independence. The kind of ugly argument that broke out again last week between the Tories and Lib Dems over free schools, if repeated on other fronts, could test voters' patience. | For Cameron's party the signs are good, but they have by no means sealed the deal with the electorate. Tory strategists know that the economy is vital, but discipline will also be key. The cohesion of the coalition will be difficult to maintain but will, to some extent, be beyond their control. The year-long run to the general election, with little legislation in the pipeline to occupy the governing parties, will create a void in which Conservatives and Lib Dems will go their own ways in the name of "differentiation". There is talk of the Lib Dems pondering not just "aggressive de-coupling" but a "nuclear option" well before next May, in which they would break the coalition over a particular issue, to assert their identity and independence. The kind of ugly argument that broke out again last week between the Tories and Lib Dems over free schools, if repeated on other fronts, could test voters' patience. |
| The big question now is whether the Tories can continue to make sufficient progress in the polls to a point where they can win more seats than Labour at the general election or even win an overall majority. It remains a giant task, one that most experts believe is beyond them. Tony Travers of the London School of Economics, like many experts, doubts that the Conservatives will increase their share of the vote by a sufficient amount to be able to rule on their own, even if the economy continues upwards. "The Tories are unlikely to better the 36% vote share they achieved in 2010," he says. "Labour would have to drop to 30% or below to make a Conservative majority possible." | The big question now is whether the Tories can continue to make sufficient progress in the polls to a point where they can win more seats than Labour at the general election or even win an overall majority. It remains a giant task, one that most experts believe is beyond them. Tony Travers of the London School of Economics, like many experts, doubts that the Conservatives will increase their share of the vote by a sufficient amount to be able to rule on their own, even if the economy continues upwards. "The Tories are unlikely to better the 36% vote share they achieved in 2010," he says. "Labour would have to drop to 30% or below to make a Conservative majority possible." |
| In 2010, positioned on the centre ground under Cameron the moderniser, they were fighting a discredited post-crash Labour government led by a very unpopular Gordon Brown and still failed to do well enough to rule on their own. The way the electoral system favours Labour means a tie in the vote share would leave Ed Miliband's party well ahead in the tally of seats and in a good position to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. Hence the enthusiasm of some in the opposition for a core vote strategy aimed at winning just 35% of the vote. A 35:35 tie with the Tories would almost certainly put Miliband in Downing Street. If analysts agree the Tories have a mountain to climb, they also agree that general predictions this time around are riddled with uncertainty. The rise of Ukip, the fall in support for the Lib Dems, and September's referendum on Scottish independence have built in huge unknowns. Even if the economy keeps growing and house prices continue to soar, danger lurks. Some economists are already saying that the Bank of England should be preparing people for a rise in rates sooner rather than later. | In 2010, positioned on the centre ground under Cameron the moderniser, they were fighting a discredited post-crash Labour government led by a very unpopular Gordon Brown and still failed to do well enough to rule on their own. The way the electoral system favours Labour means a tie in the vote share would leave Ed Miliband's party well ahead in the tally of seats and in a good position to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. Hence the enthusiasm of some in the opposition for a core vote strategy aimed at winning just 35% of the vote. A 35:35 tie with the Tories would almost certainly put Miliband in Downing Street. If analysts agree the Tories have a mountain to climb, they also agree that general predictions this time around are riddled with uncertainty. The rise of Ukip, the fall in support for the Lib Dems, and September's referendum on Scottish independence have built in huge unknowns. Even if the economy keeps growing and house prices continue to soar, danger lurks. Some economists are already saying that the Bank of England should be preparing people for a rise in rates sooner rather than later. |
| "A sudden and unexpected slowdown in the UK economy could be a problem for David Cameron," says Travers. "No one knows how well grounded the recovery is. Uncertainty is the only certainty." Labour is certainly unnerved by signs that the polls are narrowing and is consumed by indecision over policy. MPs complain there is not enough to talk about on the doorsteps, and that what policy there is can be too technical to explain simply. | "A sudden and unexpected slowdown in the UK economy could be a problem for David Cameron," says Travers. "No one knows how well grounded the recovery is. Uncertainty is the only certainty." Labour is certainly unnerved by signs that the polls are narrowing and is consumed by indecision over policy. MPs complain there is not enough to talk about on the doorsteps, and that what policy there is can be too technical to explain simply. |
| One former Labour minister said: "It is fine saying we will freeze energy prices, but voters are not stupid. They want to know how that would happen, and it is difficult to convince them how we will actually do it." | One former Labour minister said: "It is fine saying we will freeze energy prices, but voters are not stupid. They want to know how that would happen, and it is difficult to convince them how we will actually do it." |
| European polls on Saturday night showed contrasting intentions. An ICM poll showed Labour in first place on 29%, down one point from last month, with the Tories up four points to 26% and Ukip dropping two to 25%. However, a ComRes survey put Ukip in front on 35%, up one point on last week, with Labour unchanged on 24% and the Tories down two points to 20%. | European polls on Saturday night showed contrasting intentions. An ICM poll showed Labour in first place on 29%, down one point from last month, with the Tories up four points to 26% and Ukip dropping two to 25%. However, a ComRes survey put Ukip in front on 35%, up one point on last week, with Labour unchanged on 24% and the Tories down two points to 20%. |
| Debate still rages between those senior Labour figures wanting to make bold policy announcements, such as a new tax to fund the NHS or the renationalisation of rail, and those who urge caution. Last week Labour's new signing from the US, David Axelrod, former adviser to Barack Obama, spoke to members of the shadow cabinet and party officials and had dinner with Miliband and his wife. As well as giving strategic advice, some believe his main contribution may be to lift the party out of inertia and self-doubt. | Debate still rages between those senior Labour figures wanting to make bold policy announcements, such as a new tax to fund the NHS or the renationalisation of rail, and those who urge caution. Last week Labour's new signing from the US, David Axelrod, former adviser to Barack Obama, spoke to members of the shadow cabinet and party officials and had dinner with Miliband and his wife. As well as giving strategic advice, some believe his main contribution may be to lift the party out of inertia and self-doubt. |
| Axelrod believes that the "biggest risk is taking no risk at all", and said Labour had to connect with people "who feel left out of politics and economics" with messages that voters really believe will affect their lives. | Axelrod believes that the "biggest risk is taking no risk at all", and said Labour had to connect with people "who feel left out of politics and economics" with messages that voters really believe will affect their lives. |
| Campaigning in Crawley on Saturday, Miliband took up the Axelrod theme, saying that "people wonder whether the problems aren't just too big and politics too small. I say to people today: the problems are big, but we can rise to the challenge." The mood has swung in the last week, and so have polls, but not so much that anyone serious would dare to call the outcome of the general election 2015. | Campaigning in Crawley on Saturday, Miliband took up the Axelrod theme, saying that "people wonder whether the problems aren't just too big and politics too small. I say to people today: the problems are big, but we can rise to the challenge." The mood has swung in the last week, and so have polls, but not so much that anyone serious would dare to call the outcome of the general election 2015. |