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What do Ukip’s voters think about key political issues? What do Ukip’s voters think about key political issues?
(4 months later)
How much momentum does Ukip really have? The three major parties insist Ukip's growing support is a short-lived protest vote, which will fade long before the general election. Ukip itself insists it's a viable political party with a broad policy platform.But how united are the people who plan to vote for the party? Over the last few weeks, academics across Europe have been running and promoting a website called euvox.eu, which compares people's voting intentions with political parties.Using that data, we can look at what unites – and divides – people who intend to vote for each political party. For Ukip voters, the results so far are well worth a look.How much momentum does Ukip really have? The three major parties insist Ukip's growing support is a short-lived protest vote, which will fade long before the general election. Ukip itself insists it's a viable political party with a broad policy platform.But how united are the people who plan to vote for the party? Over the last few weeks, academics across Europe have been running and promoting a website called euvox.eu, which compares people's voting intentions with political parties.Using that data, we can look at what unites – and divides – people who intend to vote for each political party. For Ukip voters, the results so far are well worth a look.
United on Europe...United on Europe...
Because they are leading in most opinion Because they are leading in most opinion polls (and are the favourites at most bookies’ counters), Ukip are a particularly interesting case to take on. Their electorate is not well understood either academically or in the media – partly because of the relative novelty of their recent success.
polls (and are the favourites at most bookies’ counters), Ukip are a The party has an interesting relationship with policy generally, having sought to expunge its 2010 manifesto from history. Ukip’s election literature in 2014 is pretty light on some of the major policy issues, but one thing is very clear: they want the UK out of Europe. This is written front and centre in their campaign – for example, on their party website ‘Where we stand’ page, Ukip states that ‘A vote for Ukip is a vote to leave the EU and recover power over our national life’.
particularly interesting case to take on. Their electorate is not well This meant that Ukip was relatively easy to code as ‘Strongly Disagree’ for our statement that ‘Overall, EU membership has been a good thing for the UK’. Similarly, Ukip as a party were a clear ‘Strongly Disagree’ for a statement that ‘The UK should remain within the European Union’.
understood either academically or in the media – partly because of the relative But how do their voters feel about these issues? Based on the 6,322 number of visitors to our UK website who indicated that they will support Ukip on May 22, we can provide some insights.
novelty of their recent success. Predictably enough – Ukip voters are generally eurosceptic. For instance on the ‘Overall, EU membership has been a bad thing for the EU’ statement – only 5.4 % of voters were either ‘Disagree’ or ‘Strongly Disagree’. Similarly, a sizeable majority of those intending to vote Ukip feel that the UK should leave the EU altogether. When presented with the statement: ‘The UK should remain within the European Union’ only 8% of Ukip respondents either agreed or strongly agreed. We can see from the charts below that Ukip’s electorate is considerably more eurosceptic than non-Ukip voters.
The party has an interesting relationship
with policy generally, having sought
to expunge its 2010 manifesto from history. Ukip’s election literature in
2014 is pretty light on some of the major policy issues, but one thing is very
clear: they want the UK out of Europe. This is written front and centre in
their campaign – for example, on their party website ‘Where we stand’ page, Ukip states that ‘A
vote for Ukip is a vote to leave the EU and recover power over our national
life’.
This meant that Ukip was relatively easy to
code as ‘Strongly Disagree’ for our statement that ‘Overall, EU membership has
been a good thing for the UK’. Similarly, Ukip as a party were a clear
‘Strongly Disagree’ for a statement that ‘The UK should remain within the
European Union’.
But how do their voters feel about these
issues? Based on the 6,322 number of visitors to our UK website who indicated
that they will support Ukip on May 22, we can provide some
insights.
Predictably enough – Ukip voters are
generally eurosceptic. For instance on the ‘Overall, EU membership has been a bad
thing for the EU’ statement – only 5.4 % of voters were either ‘Disagree’ or
‘Strongly Disagree’. Similarly, a sizeable majority of those intending to vote
Ukip feel that the UK should leave the EU altogether. When presented with the
statement: ‘The UK should remain within the European Union’ only 8% of Ukip respondents either agreed or strongly agreed. We can see from the charts below
that Ukip’s electorate is considerably more eurosceptic than non-Ukip voters.
Divided on everything else...Divided on everything else...
On economic and social issues, Ukip’s On economic and social issues, Ukip’s stance going into May’s European election is far less clear. Some of the policies from their now renounced manifesto would put them on the far right of the economic spectrum (for instance, their flat tax proposal), but they are now quite ambiguous about economic issues. Similarly on potentially divisive social issues such as gay marriage and the legalisation of cannabis, the party has sustained a (sometimes strained) silence.
stance going into May’s European election is far less clear. Some of the Ukip voters display significantly greater internal diversity on economic and social policy than they do regarding Europe. For example, on a general question about whether wealth should be redistributed from the richest to the poorest, there is a reasonable spread of opinion within UKIP’s electorate, although they are, on average, to the right of non-UKIP voters on the issue.
policies from their now renounced manifesto would put them on the far right of When we look at the question of gay marriage, we again see a divided Ukip electorate – over a third of whom either ‘strongly agree’ or ‘agree’ with gay marriage, while 50.1% are opposed. On average, Ukip voters are more opposed to gay marriage than voters from other parties, however there is considerable diversity of opinion within the party electorate on this issue.
the economic spectrum (for instance, their flat tax proposal), but they are now
quite ambiguous about economic issues. Similarly on potentially divisive social
issues such as gay marriage and the legalisation of cannabis, the party has sustained
a (sometimes strained) silence.
Ukip voters display significantly greater
internal diversity on economic and social policy than they do regarding Europe.
For example, on a general question about whether wealth should be redistributed
from the richest to the poorest, there is a reasonable spread of opinion within
UKIP’s electorate, although they are, on average, to the right of non-UKIP
voters on the issue.
When we look at the question of gay
marriage, we again see a divided Ukip electorate – over a third of whom either
‘strongly agree’ or ‘agree’ with gay marriage, while 50.1% are opposed. On
average, Ukip voters are more opposed to gay marriage than voters from other
parties, however there is considerable diversity of opinion within the party
electorate on this issue.
Does the party have any depth?Does the party have any depth?
All of these data help to explain Ukip’s All of these data help to explain Ukip’s studious avoidance of non-EU policy matters during the campaign. They have a ‘winning’ stance on the EU issue with their electorate – who generally support their strong anti-EU policies. On other issues, they face an internally-divided electorate, and a clear position may cost them votes. What this says about British democracy is anyone’s guess, but one must acknowledge the astute campaign messaging that Ukip have deployed in this campaign.
studious avoidance of non-EU policy matters during the campaign. They have a
‘winning’ stance on the EU issue with their electorate – who generally support
their strong anti-EU policies. On other issues, they face an internally-divided
electorate, and a clear position may cost them votes. What this says about
British democracy is anyone’s guess, but one must acknowledge the astute
campaign messaging that Ukip have deployed in this campaign.
The euvox.eu site asks users a series of 30 policy questions – covering attitudes towards Europe, ideas about the economy and social values. After answering these questions, users are shown a ‘match’ statistic – explaining how well their opinions align with each of the major parties’ policy packages. You can look into this match in greater detail by seeing how you fit into a political map with the other parties or by checking how you line up with them on an issue-by-issue basis.The euvox.eu site asks users a series of 30 policy questions – covering attitudes towards Europe, ideas about the economy and social values. After answering these questions, users are shown a ‘match’ statistic – explaining how well their opinions align with each of the major parties’ policy packages. You can look into this match in greater detail by seeing how you fit into a political map with the other parties or by checking how you line up with them on an issue-by-issue basis.
For interested readers, the site will For interested readers, the site will remain live until the election on May 22 here in the UK, so do feel free to give it a try and find out how your ideas on the issues match up with those of the parties.
remain live until the election on May 22 here in the UK, so do feel free to
give it a try and find out how your ideas on the issues match up with those of
the parties.
Dr Matt Wall is a lecturer in politics at Swansea University. His research interests include Vote Advice Application (VAA) websites; online politics; electoral campaigns; and electoral system effects. Dr Wall has published research articles in journals including Electoral Studies, Party Politics, and The British Journal of Political Science.Dr Matt Wall is a lecturer in politics at Swansea University. His research interests include Vote Advice Application (VAA) websites; online politics; electoral campaigns; and electoral system effects. Dr Wall has published research articles in journals including Electoral Studies, Party Politics, and The British Journal of Political Science.