Tory Eurosceptics to support David Cameron until after general election

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/19/tory-eurosceptics-david-cameron-rightwing-europe-eu

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Tory Eurosceptics are planning to stand by David Cameron even if the party performs poorly in the European elections, as the right keeps its powder dry for a battle over Europe after the general election.

One senior figure said that the "wagons are beginning to circle" protectively around the prime minister as rightwing Eurosceptics acknowledge that the Conservatives need to unite in the runup to May 2015.

But the right is preparing for a battle over Europe before the prime minister's planned referendum on EU membership in 2017, amid warnings from insiders that it could lead to a Tory split as epic as the divisions over the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846.

That fissure, which pitted the former and future Tory prime ministers Sir Robert Peel and Benjamin Disraeli against each other, helped to deprive the party of a parliamentary majority for the best part of three decades.

One leading figure on the right raised the prospect of a generational split if, as they fear, Cameron tables modest demands in any EU negotiations. "That means the reckoning moment will be bigger when it eventually comes," the Tory told the Guardian.

The warnings from the right come as the final polls before Thursday's European election point to a victory for Ukip leader Nigel Farage. A ComRes /ITV News poll put Ukip on 33% among those certain to vote, ahead of Labour on 27%, the Conservatives on 20% and the Liberal Democrats on 7%. But the six-point Ukip lead was almost half the 11-point lead it enjoyed in another ComRes poll at the weekend.

The Tory right has long expected that Ukip would win on Thursday, which helps explain why the party is likely to avoid one of its periodic meltdowns. One senior figure said: "My impression is that the wagons are beginning to circle. I can't see what would beat that. But we will have to see."

Rightwingers are also happy that Cameron has offered to hold an in-out referendum on Britain's EU membership by the end of 2017. But leading figures believe the prime minister is tabling modest demands to ensure he can secure the support of Britain's 27 EU partners before the referendum in which he would campaign for a yes vote. This could lead to a rupture in the Conservative party as it is expected senior figures will defy the prime minister to campaign for a no vote.

One Eurosceptic said Cameron was storing up trouble by lowering his ambitions in the negotiations – pressing for benefit reforms and an opt out from the ambition to create an "ever closer union" among the people of Europe. "We won't get away from the problem of people feeling their views are not being represented. We failed to gain a majority in 2010 and so we could not negotiate a change in our relationship with the EU. That helps explain why so many people are supporting Ukip," the Eurosceptic added.

The right is divided on how to respond to what they regard as Cameron's modest negotiating plans. Some are arguing that Eurosceptics should use a Ukip victory in the European parliamentary elections to put pressure on the prime minister to table more ambitious demands in his negotiations with Britain's 27 EU partners if the Tories win the next election.

Others on the right say it is pointless to try to persuade such an establishment figure as Cameron to adopt a confrontational approach with the likes of the German chancellor Angela Merkel.

Meanwhile, the party is showing rare signs of unity. One minister with close links to No 10 believes the Ukip threat is exaggerated on the grounds of what he calls the "three Ukip myths" – its supposed Teflon reputation, its poor ground operation and its unwise management of expectations.

The minister told the Guardian: "I do not go along with this idea that Ukip is the Teflon party. There has been a drip-drip of allegations showing many of their members to be racist that will damage Ukip.

"There are many examples, but the totemic moment was the attack on Lenny Henry who is as English as Shakespeare – he was born in Dudley and made his name on Tiswas for goodness sake. That really showed how unpleasant they are.

"Then there is all the financial stuff about their expenses claims in Brussels. They say they are untarnished so when they are tarnished it is more damaging."

The minister described the Ukip ground operation as "pitiful" because they do not have the councillor base that took the Liberals and then the Liberal Democrats years to build up.

The final Ukip myth is the party's management of expectations in the runup to the European elections. Farage has said he expects to win and will shatter the political establishment. Cameron, by contrast, is shrugging his shoulders and is accepting that Ukip may well win and the Tories will struggle. "We have played that well, they have played that badly," the minister said, reflecting the view that a poor Tory result has been priced into the prime minister's political share price.