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European polls herald 'titanic clash' to be next head of European commission European polls herald clash of Europe's inflated titans
(about 14 hours later)
It is a paradox about the European parliament that may escape many of Europe's 375 million voters as they start going to the polls on Thursday: the less people vote for it, the more powers it gets. At every European election since the first in 1979, turnout has shrunk – but over the same period the European parliament's powers have grown vastly.It is a paradox about the European parliament that may escape many of Europe's 375 million voters as they start going to the polls on Thursday: the less people vote for it, the more powers it gets. At every European election since the first in 1979, turnout has shrunk – but over the same period the European parliament's powers have grown vastly.
Once a bypassed talking shop with no real power, the Strasbourg parliament, which will be elected over the next four days, has gained greatly expanded powers of "co-decision" with the commission and the national governments represented in the European council. It now has a strong say in almost all EU legislation.Once a bypassed talking shop with no real power, the Strasbourg parliament, which will be elected over the next four days, has gained greatly expanded powers of "co-decision" with the commission and the national governments represented in the European council. It now has a strong say in almost all EU legislation.
So important has it become that the incoming US ambassador to the EU, Anthony Gardner, says his staff will be devoting much more time than previously to the parliament, reflecting the steady accretion of power by the Strasbourg-based chamber.So important has it become that the incoming US ambassador to the EU, Anthony Gardner, says his staff will be devoting much more time than previously to the parliament, reflecting the steady accretion of power by the Strasbourg-based chamber.
At face value, this might seem a good thing – the one bit of democratically elected Brussels finally gets more influence.At face value, this might seem a good thing – the one bit of democratically elected Brussels finally gets more influence.
But power in Brussels is a precious commodity, and the new parliament can expect an immediate power struggle with Europe's national leaders over the first signature decision of its five-year term: who will be the head of the EU executive, the European commission.But power in Brussels is a precious commodity, and the new parliament can expect an immediate power struggle with Europe's national leaders over the first signature decision of its five-year term: who will be the head of the EU executive, the European commission.
The post has always been in the gift of the heads of government who are to dine in Brussels next Tuesday to digest the election outcome and plot their strategy.The post has always been in the gift of the heads of government who are to dine in Brussels next Tuesday to digest the election outcome and plot their strategy.
But parliamentary leaders insist that the job will have to go to either Jean-Claude Juncker, the former prime minister of Luxembourg running for the commission post for Europe's centre-right Christian democrats, or Martin Schulz, the German parliamentary speaker who leads Europe's social democrats in the campaign.But parliamentary leaders insist that the job will have to go to either Jean-Claude Juncker, the former prime minister of Luxembourg running for the commission post for Europe's centre-right Christian democrats, or Martin Schulz, the German parliamentary speaker who leads Europe's social democrats in the campaign.
The talk in Brussels is of a looming "bloodbath" and a a "titanic battle" over who calls the shots for the commission post, with the parliament flexing its muscles under new powers conferred by the Lisbon treaty.The talk in Brussels is of a looming "bloodbath" and a a "titanic battle" over who calls the shots for the commission post, with the parliament flexing its muscles under new powers conferred by the Lisbon treaty.
National governments are deeply reluctant to surrender their prerogatives over deciding who gets what.National governments are deeply reluctant to surrender their prerogatives over deciding who gets what.
The power struggle is less about party politics than about European institutions, with senior parliamentary figures arguing that they have the right to a greater say since it is the only EU body that is directly elected.The power struggle is less about party politics than about European institutions, with senior parliamentary figures arguing that they have the right to a greater say since it is the only EU body that is directly elected.
The leaders reject this, arguing that the greater legitimacy lies with elected national governments.The leaders reject this, arguing that the greater legitimacy lies with elected national governments.
"We are very clear," said Hannes Swoboda, head of the social democrats in the outgoing parliament. "We will not vote for any other candidate. We will not accept any other candidates except those standing [Juncker and Schulz].""We are very clear," said Hannes Swoboda, head of the social democrats in the outgoing parliament. "We will not vote for any other candidate. We will not accept any other candidates except those standing [Juncker and Schulz]."
The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, a liberal, roundly rejected that argument. "That will probably lead to fierce discussions between the council [national leaders] and the parliament. We aren't afraid of that," he told a Dutch website. "The European council has never committed itself to these candidates. The whole election is invented by European political groups … The European parliament doesn't nominate, the council does that. The parliament can then say yes or no."The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, a liberal, roundly rejected that argument. "That will probably lead to fierce discussions between the council [national leaders] and the parliament. We aren't afraid of that," he told a Dutch website. "The European council has never committed itself to these candidates. The whole election is invented by European political groups … The European parliament doesn't nominate, the council does that. The parliament can then say yes or no."
Diplomats in Brussels, while dismissing some of the parliamentary leaders were engaged in a blatant power grab by deliberately misreading the Lisbon treaty, nonetheless concede that the parliament has made the running in the contest, creating momentum and a dynamic that could see the commission job go to Juncker or Schulz in October.Diplomats in Brussels, while dismissing some of the parliamentary leaders were engaged in a blatant power grab by deliberately misreading the Lisbon treaty, nonetheless concede that the parliament has made the running in the contest, creating momentum and a dynamic that could see the commission job go to Juncker or Schulz in October.
They say that neither man would have made it on to a shortlist drawn up, as previously, by national leaders.They say that neither man would have made it on to a shortlist drawn up, as previously, by national leaders.
National leaders still have the right to nominate a commission president. But for the first time, under the Lisbon treaty, they have to take account of the election outcome and consult the parliament on their choice. The nominee has to be supported also by an absolute majority in the parliament.National leaders still have the right to nominate a commission president. But for the first time, under the Lisbon treaty, they have to take account of the election outcome and consult the parliament on their choice. The nominee has to be supported also by an absolute majority in the parliament.
Parliamentary leaders are making it clear that if the named candidates for the commission are ignored, the council's nominee will struggle to find a parliamentary majority.Parliamentary leaders are making it clear that if the named candidates for the commission are ignored, the council's nominee will struggle to find a parliamentary majority.
"If there is a clear winner in the election, it will be extremely difficult – if not politically impossible – for the council to appoint someone else," a commission figure said. "You will have a real clash.""If there is a clear winner in the election, it will be extremely difficult – if not politically impossible – for the council to appoint someone else," a commission figure said. "You will have a real clash."
Both candidates are anathema to David Cameron, who will be in a weak position in the politicking.Both candidates are anathema to David Cameron, who will be in a weak position in the politicking.
Parliamentary leaders are to gather next Tuesday to consider their options in the light of the election results, with most betting on a pact being struck between the two big blocs of centre-right and centre-left.Parliamentary leaders are to gather next Tuesday to consider their options in the light of the election results, with most betting on a pact being struck between the two big blocs of centre-right and centre-left.
While Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, François Hollande, will in effect be present through their parties in their respective blocs, there will be no UK Conservative voice since Cameron withdrew the Tories from the main centre-right European People's party.While Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, François Hollande, will in effect be present through their parties in their respective blocs, there will be no UK Conservative voice since Cameron withdrew the Tories from the main centre-right European People's party.
The opinion polls also predict steep losses for both the British Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, diminishing the presence of the British government in the new parliament, while Merkel's Christian Democrats will be the biggest single party represented.The opinion polls also predict steep losses for both the British Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, diminishing the presence of the British government in the new parliament, while Merkel's Christian Democrats will be the biggest single party represented.
As has become the habit in recent years, Merkel will be the pivotal figure. She opposed the idea of parliamentary candidates for the commission post, but was out-manoeuvred and in March threw her weight behind Juncker.As has become the habit in recent years, Merkel will be the pivotal figure. She opposed the idea of parliamentary candidates for the commission post, but was out-manoeuvred and in March threw her weight behind Juncker.
She is unlikely to support Schulz for the post if the social democrats win the election, but will be put on the spot over Juncker if the Christian democrats win.She is unlikely to support Schulz for the post if the social democrats win the election, but will be put on the spot over Juncker if the Christian democrats win.
And rejecting Schulz will also cause her trouble from her coalition partner in Germany, the Social Democrats (SPD) who strongly support Schulz.And rejecting Schulz will also cause her trouble from her coalition partner in Germany, the Social Democrats (SPD) who strongly support Schulz.
The SPD's leader and German vice-chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, said that ditching the two candidates would mean "destroying democracy" in Europe.The SPD's leader and German vice-chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, said that ditching the two candidates would mean "destroying democracy" in Europe.