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Tea party makes its last stand in Mississippi, targeting longtime Sen. Thad Cochran Tea party makes its last stand in Mississippi, targeting longtime Sen. Thad Cochran
(about 2 hours later)
After a string of humiliating defeats in Republican primaries this spring, the tea party’s last best hope to oust an incumbent lawmaker is in Mississippi. After a string of humbling defeats in Republican primaries this spring, the tea party’s last best hope to oust an incumbent lawmaker is in Mississippi.
At first glance, the deeply conservative state’s Senate primary race seems ripe for an upset. Sen. Thad Cochran has served in Washington for as long as his 41-year-old challenger, state senator Chris McDaniel, has been alive. A proud and prolific earmarker when senators were freer to send pork to their states, Cochran personifies the kind of free-spending Beltway broker that grassroots conservative voters have often revolted against.At first glance, the deeply conservative state’s Senate primary race seems ripe for an upset. Sen. Thad Cochran has served in Washington for as long as his 41-year-old challenger, state senator Chris McDaniel, has been alive. A proud and prolific earmarker when senators were freer to send pork to their states, Cochran personifies the kind of free-spending Beltway broker that grassroots conservative voters have often revolted against.
Yet McDaniel has failed to put the contest away, even as Tea Party-aligned groups are pouring money into Mississippi to deny Cochran a seventh term. The insurgent has made a series of tactical errors, while Cochran and his establishment allies — well-funded and prepared for combat — have been eviscerating McDaniel on the airwaves. Yet McDaniel has failed to put the contest away, even as Tea Party-aligned groups are pouring money into Mississippi to deny Cochran a seventh term. The insurgent has made a series of tactical errors, while Cochran and his establishment allies — well-funded and prepared for battle — have been eviscerating McDaniel on the airwaves.
The race has also been roiled over the past week by a bizarre incident in which a pro-McDaniel blogger was arrested for taking an illicit photo of Cochran’s bedridden wife, Rose, who has dementia and lives in a nursing home.The race has also been roiled over the past week by a bizarre incident in which a pro-McDaniel blogger was arrested for taking an illicit photo of Cochran’s bedridden wife, Rose, who has dementia and lives in a nursing home.
There are few reliable public polls in Mississippi. Strategists in the state say the race has been close, with Cochran enjoying a slight advantage, although they sensed that McDaniel had been gaining steam before the nursing home episode.There are few reliable public polls in Mississippi. Strategists in the state say the race has been close, with Cochran enjoying a slight advantage, although they sensed that McDaniel had been gaining steam before the nursing home episode.
Conservative groups — still searching for their first victory in knocking off an entrenched incumbent this year — are doubling down to prop up McDaniel in the run-up to the June 3 primary.Conservative groups — still searching for their first victory in knocking off an entrenched incumbent this year — are doubling down to prop up McDaniel in the run-up to the June 3 primary.
“This is it,” said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report. “For all the early hype about the [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell primary challenge, the Cochran race has always been the best opportunity for the libertarian-slash-tea party folks.”“This is it,” said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report. “For all the early hype about the [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell primary challenge, the Cochran race has always been the best opportunity for the libertarian-slash-tea party folks.”
Citizens United and ForAmerica will soon begin advertising in Mississippi, joining an array of conservative organizations backing McDaniel. Together, Tea Party-aligned groups have spent nearly $2.4 million compared to $1.8 million invested by pro-Cochran groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by the Sunlight Foundation.Citizens United and ForAmerica will soon begin advertising in Mississippi, joining an array of conservative organizations backing McDaniel. Together, Tea Party-aligned groups have spent nearly $2.4 million compared to $1.8 million invested by pro-Cochran groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by the Sunlight Foundation.
L. Brent Bozell III said his group, ForAmerica, has “decided to get behind McDaniel this week with a six-figure buy,” focused on digital advertising.L. Brent Bozell III said his group, ForAmerica, has “decided to get behind McDaniel this week with a six-figure buy,” focused on digital advertising.
“I’m not looking for scalps, but I am looking for conservative victories, and Cochran remains a top target,” he said. “He campaigns as a conservative and governs as a moderate.”“I’m not looking for scalps, but I am looking for conservative victories, and Cochran remains a top target,” he said. “He campaigns as a conservative and governs as a moderate.”
David Bossie, president of Citizens United, whose political arm has backed McDaniel since January, plans to focus on the final stretch. Beginning Thursday, Bossie said, he will spend $175,000 for statewide cable and broadcast advertisements — a significant buy for the modestly sized tea party group. David Bossie, president of Citizens United, whose political arm has backed McDaniel since January, is ramping up his efforts. Beginning Thursday, Bossie said, he would spend $175,000 for statewide cable and broadcast advertisements — a significant buy for the modestly sized tea party group.
“This is about Mississippi voters, who want a conservative leader in Washington raising Mississippi’s voice to be with the Ted Cruz/Mike Lee part of the party, not part of the establishment and part of the problem,” Bossie said, referring to the combative senators from Texas and Utah. “This is about Mississippi voters, who want a conservative leader in Washington raising Mississippi’s voice to be with the Ted Cruz-Mike Lee part of the party, not part of the establishment and part of the problem,” Bossie said, referring to the combative senators from Texas and Utah.
The biggest spender has been Club for Growth, which has been on the air for weeks and spent more than $1.7 million. Senate Conservatives Fund has spent about $1 million, while other groups including Tea Party Patriots and the Madison Project have been active, according to the Sunlight Foundation analysis.The biggest spender has been Club for Growth, which has been on the air for weeks and spent more than $1.7 million. Senate Conservatives Fund has spent about $1 million, while other groups including Tea Party Patriots and the Madison Project have been active, according to the Sunlight Foundation analysis.
The torrent of spending drew a warning from former Delaware congressman Mike Castle, who lost the 2010 Republican Senate primary to Christine O’Donnell, a tea party-backed candidate who was crushed in the general election that year.The torrent of spending drew a warning from former Delaware congressman Mike Castle, who lost the 2010 Republican Senate primary to Christine O’Donnell, a tea party-backed candidate who was crushed in the general election that year.
Castle said Cochran “needs to be careful since these tea party groups can bring in a lot of money in a rush. . . . Even if you’re more prepared than I was, and the surprise is sort of gone, you’ve got to pay close attention to what they’re doing.”Castle said Cochran “needs to be careful since these tea party groups can bring in a lot of money in a rush. . . . Even if you’re more prepared than I was, and the surprise is sort of gone, you’ve got to pay close attention to what they’re doing.”
Cochran’s advisers and advocates insist the money is all for naught. Although they acknowledge the race is tightening, they also argue that Mississippians will not turn out a senator who, as a longtime member and former chairman of the Appropriations Committee, has delivered time and again for his poor and rural state, such as after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast.Cochran’s advisers and advocates insist the money is all for naught. Although they acknowledge the race is tightening, they also argue that Mississippians will not turn out a senator who, as a longtime member and former chairman of the Appropriations Committee, has delivered time and again for his poor and rural state, such as after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast.
“He can just accomplish so much more than Chris McDaniel, and I think people see a contrast in that we know we can count on Senator Cochran,” said Henry Barbour, a nephew of former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour (R), who is running Mississippi Conservatives, a pro-Cochran super PAC.“He can just accomplish so much more than Chris McDaniel, and I think people see a contrast in that we know we can count on Senator Cochran,” said Henry Barbour, a nephew of former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour (R), who is running Mississippi Conservatives, a pro-Cochran super PAC.
He recalled an exchange, reported in February by Politico, in which McDaniel told an audience at the University of Mississippi, “I’m not going to do anything for you. I’m going to get the government off your back, and then I’m gonna let you do it for yourself.”He recalled an exchange, reported in February by Politico, in which McDaniel told an audience at the University of Mississippi, “I’m not going to do anything for you. I’m going to get the government off your back, and then I’m gonna let you do it for yourself.”
In recent years, Cochran has been eyed suspiciously by the party’s right-most wing. In its 2014 scorecard, the American Conservative Union shows Cochran at 63 percent — one of the group’s worst ratings during the Obama presidency. That’s 31 points lower than McConnell, who fended off a tea party challenger this week, and 26 points lower than Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who also faces a primary fight.In recent years, Cochran has been eyed suspiciously by the party’s right-most wing. In its 2014 scorecard, the American Conservative Union shows Cochran at 63 percent — one of the group’s worst ratings during the Obama presidency. That’s 31 points lower than McConnell, who fended off a tea party challenger this week, and 26 points lower than Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who also faces a primary fight.
“It’s a critical moment for conservatism,” said ACU Executive Director Dan Schneider. “It will test whether conservatives can get rid of senators who become more liberal over time — and Thad Cochran is the king of that group.”“It’s a critical moment for conservatism,” said ACU Executive Director Dan Schneider. “It will test whether conservatives can get rid of senators who become more liberal over time — and Thad Cochran is the king of that group.”
Cochran plans to tour the state by bus in the final days and is seeking help from social conservatives who have been friendly with him for decades. National Right to Life, an antiabortion group, endorsed him on Wednesday, saying he had advanced “vital pro-life public policies.”Cochran plans to tour the state by bus in the final days and is seeking help from social conservatives who have been friendly with him for decades. National Right to Life, an antiabortion group, endorsed him on Wednesday, saying he had advanced “vital pro-life public policies.”
Cochran, who has not run a competitive race since 1984, is relying heavily on the GOP political machines built by Haley Barbour and the state’s current governor, Phil Bryant. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has spent $500,000 on the race, also is mobilizing its network of local chambers and small businesses to encourage their employees to support Cochran because it sees him as the best able to recruit jobs to Mississippi. Cochran, who has not run a competitive race since 1984, is relying heavily on the GOP political machines built by Haley Barbour and the state’s current governor, Phil Bryant. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has spent $500,000 on the race, also is mobilizing its network of local chambers and small businesses to encourage their employees to support Cochran because it sees him as an able recruiter of jobs to Mississippi.
Henry Barbour, noting tea party struggles in other contested primaries this year, said, “Candidates matter.”Henry Barbour, noting tea party struggles in other contested primaries this year, said, “Candidates matter.”
“That’s what these groups that have hijacked the tea party need to learn,” he said. “That’s why Senator Cochran’s going to win and why Chris McDaniel’s going to lose.”“That’s what these groups that have hijacked the tea party need to learn,” he said. “That’s why Senator Cochran’s going to win and why Chris McDaniel’s going to lose.”
Still, some Washington party establishment figures quietly voice concern about Cochran’s vulnerabilities. One of them, who requested anonymity because he did not want to alienate Cochran, compared the genteel 76-year-old legislator to former senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, who lost to a tea party challenger in the 2012 election at the age of 80.Still, some Washington party establishment figures quietly voice concern about Cochran’s vulnerabilities. One of them, who requested anonymity because he did not want to alienate Cochran, compared the genteel 76-year-old legislator to former senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, who lost to a tea party challenger in the 2012 election at the age of 80.
Lugar was felled by accusations that he had been in Washington so long he lost touch with his state, selling his Indiana home and living full-time in suburban Virginia.Lugar was felled by accusations that he had been in Washington so long he lost touch with his state, selling his Indiana home and living full-time in suburban Virginia.
“Thad Cochran is a perfectly nice Southern gentleman and senator,” Bossie said. “But I don’t see him being a leader who will work against the status quo. His time has passed.”“Thad Cochran is a perfectly nice Southern gentleman and senator,” Bossie said. “But I don’t see him being a leader who will work against the status quo. His time has passed.”
That is the theme McDaniel wants to drive home in the final two weeks of campaigning. But both campaigns have dragged the other into an ugly back-and-forth over the Rose Cochran nursing home photo. Conservative blogger Clayton Kelly posted an online video containing the unauthorized picture and later took it down, but was arrested last Friday and charged with a felony.That is the theme McDaniel wants to drive home in the final two weeks of campaigning. But both campaigns have dragged the other into an ugly back-and-forth over the Rose Cochran nursing home photo. Conservative blogger Clayton Kelly posted an online video containing the unauthorized picture and later took it down, but was arrested last Friday and charged with a felony.
Although McDaniel’s campaign insists it had nothing to do with the blogger, Thad Cochran’s campaign tried to create doubts by releasing a timeline of statements from McDaniel and his aides and showing how they changed their story. Although McDaniel’s campaign insists it had nothing to do with the blogger, Cochran’s campaign tried to create doubts by releasing a timeline of statements from McDaniel and his aides and showing how they changed their story.
McDaniel said the Cochran campaign is resorting to “shameful slander,” while Cochran spokesman Jordan Russell told reporters Wednesday, “We’re in the middle of a race I think the likes of which Mississippi has never seen.”McDaniel said the Cochran campaign is resorting to “shameful slander,” while Cochran spokesman Jordan Russell told reporters Wednesday, “We’re in the middle of a race I think the likes of which Mississippi has never seen.”
Some tea party leaders recognize the difficulty of knocking off the Mississippi incumbent.Some tea party leaders recognize the difficulty of knocking off the Mississippi incumbent.
In 2010, tea party favorite Joe Miller beat Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) in a primary, only to lose to Murkowski in the general election, when she ran as a write-in candidate. Miller, who is running again this year, said in an interview that it is much harder for insurgents like McDaniel. In 2010, tea party favorite Joe Miller beat Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) in a primary, only to lose to Murkowski in the general election, when she ran as a write-in candidate. Miller, who is running again this year, said in an interview that it is much harder for contenders like McDaniel.
“The ruling class of the Republican Party has become much more explicit in its attacks on conservatives than they used to be,” Miller said. “They’ve designed a better mechanism to keep their power.”“The ruling class of the Republican Party has become much more explicit in its attacks on conservatives than they used to be,” Miller said. “They’ve designed a better mechanism to keep their power.”
robert.costa@washpost.com
Tom Hamburger and Matea Gold contributed to this report.Tom Hamburger and Matea Gold contributed to this report.