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| Abdel Fatah al-Sisi: behind the public face of Egypt's soon-to-be president | Abdel Fatah al-Sisi: behind the public face of Egypt's soon-to-be president |
| (about 14 hours later) | |
| Ahmed Seif remembers meeting Egypt's next president before most people had even heard of him. It was 5 February 2011, in the middle of a chaotic uprising against Hosni Mubarak, and less than a week before the then dictator's resignation. | Ahmed Seif remembers meeting Egypt's next president before most people had even heard of him. It was 5 February 2011, in the middle of a chaotic uprising against Hosni Mubarak, and less than a week before the then dictator's resignation. |
| Seif, a leading human rights lawyer,had been arrested two days earlier in a last-gasp attempt to restore order. He spent the next 48 hours being interrogated by middle-ranking officers in military intelligence, and by Saturday it was the turn of their boss: Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, then head of military intelligence and now the all-bets-off favourite to win the presidential elections on 26 May. | Seif, a leading human rights lawyer,had been arrested two days earlier in a last-gasp attempt to restore order. He spent the next 48 hours being interrogated by middle-ranking officers in military intelligence, and by Saturday it was the turn of their boss: Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, then head of military intelligence and now the all-bets-off favourite to win the presidential elections on 26 May. |
| The encounter happened by chance. Sisi was passing the lawyer and a group of other prisoners, and he asked his officers who they were. "And they told him," says Seif. "And Sisi started to speak [about] to what extent we should respect Hosni Mubarak and the military leadership, and how we must return to our homes and leave Tahrir Square." | The encounter happened by chance. Sisi was passing the lawyer and a group of other prisoners, and he asked his officers who they were. "And they told him," says Seif. "And Sisi started to speak [about] to what extent we should respect Hosni Mubarak and the military leadership, and how we must return to our homes and leave Tahrir Square." |
| To Sisi's fury, Seif answered back, telling him Mubarak was corrupt. And then, by Seif's account, Sisi "became angry, his face became red … He acted as if every citizen would accept his point and no one would reject it in public. When he was rejected in public, he lost it." | To Sisi's fury, Seif answered back, telling him Mubarak was corrupt. And then, by Seif's account, Sisi "became angry, his face became red … He acted as if every citizen would accept his point and no one would reject it in public. When he was rejected in public, he lost it." |
| It is not a side of Sisi many would recognise. The 59-year-old emerged from the shadows of the military in 2012, after his appointment as defence minister by the person he would eventually oust from office, Mohamed Morsi. Ever since, Sisi has cultivated the restrained persona of someone who speaks only when he has to. When he announced Morsi's removal, in a televised speech on 3 July 2013, it was the first time many had heard him talk. Until 26 March this year, when he finally declared he was running for president, Sisi was defined more by what he hadn't yet said than what he had. And in the campaign period since, his face – which now adorns most main roads in Cairo – has defined the landscape, but his words have not. Apart from a handful of prerecorded interviews, he has made no public appearances, leaving aides to helm his press conferences, rallies, and even televised debates. | It is not a side of Sisi many would recognise. The 59-year-old emerged from the shadows of the military in 2012, after his appointment as defence minister by the person he would eventually oust from office, Mohamed Morsi. Ever since, Sisi has cultivated the restrained persona of someone who speaks only when he has to. When he announced Morsi's removal, in a televised speech on 3 July 2013, it was the first time many had heard him talk. Until 26 March this year, when he finally declared he was running for president, Sisi was defined more by what he hadn't yet said than what he had. And in the campaign period since, his face – which now adorns most main roads in Cairo – has defined the landscape, but his words have not. Apart from a handful of prerecorded interviews, he has made no public appearances, leaving aides to helm his press conferences, rallies, and even televised debates. |
| Family success | Family success |
| People who know Sisi say his public persona – all calmness and piety with a mixture of austerity and warmth – has been shaped by circumstances that defined him from a young age. Sisi was born in November 1954, the second of eight siblings (his father later had another six children with a second wife). He grew up in Gamaleya, the heart of old Islamic Cairo, a few dozen metres from the al-Azhar mosque, one of the oldest in the Egyptian capital, and closer still to Khan el-Khalili, the sprawling bazaar that most tourists visit after the pyramids. | |
| Sisi's family worked in the bazaar. For generations, they made and sold arabesque furnishings, seemingly to great acclaim. His grandfather's work is cited in a PhD from the 1940s about ornamental style, and in the 1970s the culture ministry presented the family with a certificate that called them the best arabesque artisans in Egypt. Today, the family own three of the best plots in the bazaar, and Sisi's cousin Ali Hamama – who has inherited the family business – likes to claim it is the only Egyptian firm that still makes arabesque in the traditional manner. | Sisi's family worked in the bazaar. For generations, they made and sold arabesque furnishings, seemingly to great acclaim. His grandfather's work is cited in a PhD from the 1940s about ornamental style, and in the 1970s the culture ministry presented the family with a certificate that called them the best arabesque artisans in Egypt. Today, the family own three of the best plots in the bazaar, and Sisi's cousin Ali Hamama – who has inherited the family business – likes to claim it is the only Egyptian firm that still makes arabesque in the traditional manner. |
| According to Hamama, the young Sisi worked in the shop after school. "He knows how to do it," says the 55-year-old, "and he's good at it." | According to Hamama, the young Sisi worked in the shop after school. "He knows how to do it," says the 55-year-old, "and he's good at it." |
| Beneath the predictable stories of unimpeachable virtue, former neighbours and friends describe a young man who was disciplined, devout, slightly reclusive – and even a bit dull. He grew up cheek by jowl with poorer metal-workers and affluent western tourists. He and his siblings would study at the nearby library at al-Azhar University – an ancient institution that has historically clashed with the Muslim Brotherhood. | Beneath the predictable stories of unimpeachable virtue, former neighbours and friends describe a young man who was disciplined, devout, slightly reclusive – and even a bit dull. He grew up cheek by jowl with poorer metal-workers and affluent western tourists. He and his siblings would study at the nearby library at al-Azhar University – an ancient institution that has historically clashed with the Muslim Brotherhood. |
| Sisi went to bed early, walked everywhere and pumped homemade weights on the roof of his family's home. "I don't think he had any interesting stories from when he was a child," says Hamama, laughing. "He was just so serious. Abdel Fatah would play chess and do weights. But hide-and-seek? Never." | Sisi went to bed early, walked everywhere and pumped homemade weights on the roof of his family's home. "I don't think he had any interesting stories from when he was a child," says Hamama, laughing. "He was just so serious. Abdel Fatah would play chess and do weights. But hide-and-seek? Never." |
| His family were considered one of the wealthiest in the area – the first to buy a Mercedes – but also one of the least assuming. "They were very rich, but you couldn't feel it," says Mohamed Ibrahim, a sock-factory owner who learned to drive in the family's fabled Merc. "They were very humble." | His family were considered one of the wealthiest in the area – the first to buy a Mercedes – but also one of the least assuming. "They were very rich, but you couldn't feel it," says Mohamed Ibrahim, a sock-factory owner who learned to drive in the family's fabled Merc. "They were very humble." |
| Enriched by the tourist trade, the Sisis upped sticks in the 1980s, building their own apartment block in the classier new suburb of Nasr City. As they moved out, says Hussein Ali, a businessman who bought their building in Gamaleya, "people were crying because they were so respectable". | Enriched by the tourist trade, the Sisis upped sticks in the 1980s, building their own apartment block in the classier new suburb of Nasr City. As they moved out, says Hussein Ali, a businessman who bought their building in Gamaleya, "people were crying because they were so respectable". |
| It is a backstory that has not always been portrayed so positively. This February, the newspaper al-Watan – which had previously been supportive of Sisi – claimed the soldier's inheritance and land assets totalled 30m Egyptian pounds (£2.5m). The claims were deemed so contentious that, minutes after publication, state officials contacted al-Watan, demanding the article be pulled. The newspaper was duly reprinted without the story – but it left a sour taste. | It is a backstory that has not always been portrayed so positively. This February, the newspaper al-Watan – which had previously been supportive of Sisi – claimed the soldier's inheritance and land assets totalled 30m Egyptian pounds (£2.5m). The claims were deemed so contentious that, minutes after publication, state officials contacted al-Watan, demanding the article be pulled. The newspaper was duly reprinted without the story – but it left a sour taste. |
| Sisi has submitted a breakdown of his assets to the presidential elections commission, but it will only be made public after his election. In the meantime his campaign team refuses to reveal his wealth. This uncertainty has clouded Sisi's image among critics, says Robert Springborg, a longterm analyst of the Egyptian military, and a visiting war studies fellow at King's College London. | Sisi has submitted a breakdown of his assets to the presidential elections commission, but it will only be made public after his election. In the meantime his campaign team refuses to reveal his wealth. This uncertainty has clouded Sisi's image among critics, says Robert Springborg, a longterm analyst of the Egyptian military, and a visiting war studies fellow at King's College London. |
| "If he were compelled to make such a statement [now], maybe it would turn out these were all [legitimate] real estate investments. But as it stands, this statement of his wealth and the fact it was all covered up [raises] the question [of] how corrupt is he? It is a question that will hang over him, which was not the case before." | "If he were compelled to make such a statement [now], maybe it would turn out these were all [legitimate] real estate investments. But as it stands, this statement of his wealth and the fact it was all covered up [raises] the question [of] how corrupt is he? It is a question that will hang over him, which was not the case before." |
| A military man | A military man |
| When Sisi stepped down from the army in March, it was the first time he had not worked in a military institution in more than four decades. Unlike his brothers – one of whom is a senior judge, another a civil servant – Sisi went to a local army-run secondary school. Afterwards, he trained to be an officer at Egypt's military academy, graduating in 1977, and later married Entissar, with whom he has four children. In the 1980s and 1990s, he rose through the ranks in the mechanised infantry brigades and was earmarked for leadership. | When Sisi stepped down from the army in March, it was the first time he had not worked in a military institution in more than four decades. Unlike his brothers – one of whom is a senior judge, another a civil servant – Sisi went to a local army-run secondary school. Afterwards, he trained to be an officer at Egypt's military academy, graduating in 1977, and later married Entissar, with whom he has four children. In the 1980s and 1990s, he rose through the ranks in the mechanised infantry brigades and was earmarked for leadership. |
| In 1992, he was sent to train at Britain's military staff college in Surrey – though no one at its new incarnation in Swindon can remember him, according to the current commander. Later, he served as Egypt's defence attache to Saudi Arabia, now a key financial backer of his government. | In 1992, he was sent to train at Britain's military staff college in Surrey – though no one at its new incarnation in Swindon can remember him, according to the current commander. Later, he served as Egypt's defence attache to Saudi Arabia, now a key financial backer of his government. |
| By the final years of the Mubarak regime, Sisi had transferred to military intelligence – one of the opaque agencies that dissidents say hold the strings to Egyptian politics – and was already seen by contemporaries as a potential successor to then defence minister, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi. | By the final years of the Mubarak regime, Sisi had transferred to military intelligence – one of the opaque agencies that dissidents say hold the strings to Egyptian politics – and was already seen by contemporaries as a potential successor to then defence minister, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi. |
| "He was being prepared to be the next minister – but we thought it would be three or four years later than it happened," says a colleague and contemporary, who does not want to be named. "He is a good commander, but he also clearly has the touch of a politician. He is maybe more a politician than a commander." | "He was being prepared to be the next minister – but we thought it would be three or four years later than it happened," says a colleague and contemporary, who does not want to be named. "He is a good commander, but he also clearly has the touch of a politician. He is maybe more a politician than a commander." |
| It was in the US in 2005-06 that some of his political instincts were honed. Sisi was sent to the US army war college in Pennsylvania – another sign of his high standing within the Egyptian military – and his writings and friendships from this time provide more insight into who he is than any other period in his life. | It was in the US in 2005-06 that some of his political instincts were honed. Sisi was sent to the US army war college in Pennsylvania – another sign of his high standing within the Egyptian military – and his writings and friendships from this time provide more insight into who he is than any other period in his life. |
| Colonel Stephen Gerras was his tutor, and says the pair quickly became friends after Sisi started to stop by his office for biweekly conversations. Gerras remembers Sisi as a deeply serious man who tried hard to be sociable but felt more comfortable in one-to-one conversations. When his year-group gathered to watch the Superbowl, Sisi opted out and instead toured Gerras's house with the colonel's mother. Spotting a series of Islamic souvenirs the colonel had brought back from Turkey, Sisi enthusiastically translated their Arabic text and explained to Mrs Gerras their significance. She still asks after him. "I don't have any memories of him being the guy with the lampshade on his head," says Gerras, but he does at least recall the Sisis turning up to fancy-dress parties. "I can picture his wife, Entissar, standing next to one of the students' wives [who was] dressed as Cleopatra, which of course has some irony to it, and on the other side was Dorothy from Wizard of Oz." | Colonel Stephen Gerras was his tutor, and says the pair quickly became friends after Sisi started to stop by his office for biweekly conversations. Gerras remembers Sisi as a deeply serious man who tried hard to be sociable but felt more comfortable in one-to-one conversations. When his year-group gathered to watch the Superbowl, Sisi opted out and instead toured Gerras's house with the colonel's mother. Spotting a series of Islamic souvenirs the colonel had brought back from Turkey, Sisi enthusiastically translated their Arabic text and explained to Mrs Gerras their significance. She still asks after him. "I don't have any memories of him being the guy with the lampshade on his head," says Gerras, but he does at least recall the Sisis turning up to fancy-dress parties. "I can picture his wife, Entissar, standing next to one of the students' wives [who was] dressed as Cleopatra, which of course has some irony to it, and on the other side was Dorothy from Wizard of Oz." |
| Sisi's time in Pennsylvania is controversial because of an ambiguous 11-page essay (pdf) he wrote there. The paper, Democracy in the Middle East, is a confusing document. By turns, it shows enthusiasm for democratic reforms and autocratic continuity – and has been interpreted as both supportive and critical of political Islam. | Sisi's time in Pennsylvania is controversial because of an ambiguous 11-page essay (pdf) he wrote there. The paper, Democracy in the Middle East, is a confusing document. By turns, it shows enthusiasm for democratic reforms and autocratic continuity – and has been interpreted as both supportive and critical of political Islam. |
| Egypt is rarely mentioned but it is clear Sisi was alluding to the country's problems. "Those in power seem to be living in luxury, while the common man struggles to get by," he wrote, concluding that the absence of good state education and a free press had blocked the path to democracy. "The media," he wrote, "will be an obstacle to a democratic form of government until it can be trusted to represent more than the government's perspective." | Egypt is rarely mentioned but it is clear Sisi was alluding to the country's problems. "Those in power seem to be living in luxury, while the common man struggles to get by," he wrote, concluding that the absence of good state education and a free press had blocked the path to democracy. "The media," he wrote, "will be an obstacle to a democratic form of government until it can be trusted to represent more than the government's perspective." |
| But his awareness of these issues appeared to make him wary of ending dictatorships too soon. There were "valid reasons" not to switch to full democracy all at once; "populations need to be prepared", a process that "will require time". | But his awareness of these issues appeared to make him wary of ending dictatorships too soon. There were "valid reasons" not to switch to full democracy all at once; "populations need to be prepared", a process that "will require time". |
| But paradoxically, Sisi also appears implicitly to endorse the Muslim Brotherhood's right to take up political office. Even if Islamists were not to the west's taste, "legitimately elected parties [should] be given the opportunity to govern", he wrote – specifically naming Hamas, and alluding elsewhere to the Brotherhood. Later, he described the concept of the Islamic caliphate as "the ideal form of government", and argued that a government's executive, legislative and judicial arms should all draw on Islamic beliefs. | But paradoxically, Sisi also appears implicitly to endorse the Muslim Brotherhood's right to take up political office. Even if Islamists were not to the west's taste, "legitimately elected parties [should] be given the opportunity to govern", he wrote – specifically naming Hamas, and alluding elsewhere to the Brotherhood. Later, he described the concept of the Islamic caliphate as "the ideal form of government", and argued that a government's executive, legislative and judicial arms should all draw on Islamic beliefs. |
| It is this that led Springborg to wonder if Sisi was not the scourge of Islamism, but rather the harbinger of "a hybrid regime that would combine Islamism with militarism". | It is this that led Springborg to wonder if Sisi was not the scourge of Islamism, but rather the harbinger of "a hybrid regime that would combine Islamism with militarism". |
| But Sherifa Zuhur, a professor who taught Sisi that year, dismissed the idea he is "a secret Islamist – he wasn't then, and I don't think he is now". By discussing the caliphate and the Islamisation of state institutions, Sisi was simply trying to show – amid "a torrent of stuff circulating through the college about Muslims being incapable of democracy" – that Islam was as compatible with democratic norms as Christianity. It's a pragmatic approach, says Zuhur, given the high religiosity of most Egyptians. | But Sherifa Zuhur, a professor who taught Sisi that year, dismissed the idea he is "a secret Islamist – he wasn't then, and I don't think he is now". By discussing the caliphate and the Islamisation of state institutions, Sisi was simply trying to show – amid "a torrent of stuff circulating through the college about Muslims being incapable of democracy" – that Islam was as compatible with democratic norms as Christianity. It's a pragmatic approach, says Zuhur, given the high religiosity of most Egyptians. |
| "The point in the paper he's trying to make is that you can't really talk about democracy in the Middle East [in a way] that is purely secular," she says. "Somehow we have to allow for people's religiosity and also set down rules whereby you can't monopolise the political scene by taking up ownership of [religion]." | "The point in the paper he's trying to make is that you can't really talk about democracy in the Middle East [in a way] that is purely secular," she says. "Somehow we have to allow for people's religiosity and also set down rules whereby you can't monopolise the political scene by taking up ownership of [religion]." |
| And as for the Brotherhood, whatever small sympathies Sisi may possibly have had for them in 2006 have long since vanished. Last July, he removed Morsi, following days of mass protests against the president's government, and since then several thousand Brotherhood supporters have been jailed, tortured or killed – a scenario that looks set to continue. During one of his few campaign interviews Sisi said: "There will be nothing called the Muslim Brotherhood during my tenure." | And as for the Brotherhood, whatever small sympathies Sisi may possibly have had for them in 2006 have long since vanished. Last July, he removed Morsi, following days of mass protests against the president's government, and since then several thousand Brotherhood supporters have been jailed, tortured or killed – a scenario that looks set to continue. During one of his few campaign interviews Sisi said: "There will be nothing called the Muslim Brotherhood during my tenure." |
| It is an approach that nevertheless would have surprised observers less than two years ago. After the revolution, Sisi became the youngest general in the army's leadership, the supreme council for the armed forces (Scaf), which ran Egypt for 18 months until Morsi's election. As a Scaf general, he achieved international notoriety by defending the subjection of female detainees to "virginity tests", claiming it was to protect soldiers from allegations of rape. | It is an approach that nevertheless would have surprised observers less than two years ago. After the revolution, Sisi became the youngest general in the army's leadership, the supreme council for the armed forces (Scaf), which ran Egypt for 18 months until Morsi's election. As a Scaf general, he achieved international notoriety by defending the subjection of female detainees to "virginity tests", claiming it was to protect soldiers from allegations of rape. |
| A question of loyalty | A question of loyalty |
| But in August 2012, he took on another role with his appointment as defence minister after the stunning and sudden sacking of Tantawi, who had been the de facto president after Mubarak's fall. For months, some wondered if Sisi's outward piety – he sprinkles his speech with Islamic sayings – had convinced Morsi of his loyalty and even sympathy. | But in August 2012, he took on another role with his appointment as defence minister after the stunning and sudden sacking of Tantawi, who had been the de facto president after Mubarak's fall. For months, some wondered if Sisi's outward piety – he sprinkles his speech with Islamic sayings – had convinced Morsi of his loyalty and even sympathy. |
| In hindsight that analysis seems naive, given how Sisi had long been earmarked for the top. But until very late in Morsi's presidency, it was unclear whose side Sisi would take in the face of mass protests. In January 2013, as unrest against Morsi continued to build, Sisi issued a vague warning about the collapse of the state, suggesting he was concerned about the president's actions. But as late as May that year, Sisi said the army would stay out of politics: "No one is going to remove anybody, and nobody should think that the army has the solution." | In hindsight that analysis seems naive, given how Sisi had long been earmarked for the top. But until very late in Morsi's presidency, it was unclear whose side Sisi would take in the face of mass protests. In January 2013, as unrest against Morsi continued to build, Sisi issued a vague warning about the collapse of the state, suggesting he was concerned about the president's actions. But as late as May that year, Sisi said the army would stay out of politics: "No one is going to remove anybody, and nobody should think that the army has the solution." |
| Even as it became increasingly evident that huge numbers would turn out against Morsi during planned protests on 30 June, Sisi's intentions were still unclear. With a week to go, he issued a statement calling for all sides to reach a compromise – and it seems that at that stage he still hoped Morsi would defuse the situation by calling for early elections. A rambling and defiant speech from Morsi on 26 June showed this was unlikely, and the next day a senior officer outlined a scenario to the Guardian in which the army might unseat Morsi. | Even as it became increasingly evident that huge numbers would turn out against Morsi during planned protests on 30 June, Sisi's intentions were still unclear. With a week to go, he issued a statement calling for all sides to reach a compromise – and it seems that at that stage he still hoped Morsi would defuse the situation by calling for early elections. A rambling and defiant speech from Morsi on 26 June showed this was unlikely, and the next day a senior officer outlined a scenario to the Guardian in which the army might unseat Morsi. |
| But the die was still not yet cast: on 29 June, the Guardian encountered Sisi in person at Morsi's offices, emerging from a three-hour meeting in which the president, the prime minister and senior officers had tried to thrash out a deal. It was only after millions turned out on 30 June, and Morsi still stayed put, that Sisi's plans hardened. | |
| The president was arrested on 3 July, but for months Sisi – keen to avoid accusations of a coup – claimed he had little intention of succeeding his former boss. An interim cabinet was assembled which contained several liberal and left-leaning faces, in a sign that hardliners such as Sisi could not yet completely control the narrative. | The president was arrested on 3 July, but for months Sisi – keen to avoid accusations of a coup – claimed he had little intention of succeeding his former boss. An interim cabinet was assembled which contained several liberal and left-leaning faces, in a sign that hardliners such as Sisi could not yet completely control the narrative. |
| But as summer wore on, and Egypt's media stoked a nationalist frenzy against the Brotherhood, political moderates were squeezed out – which left more room for Sisi. A turning point came on 26 July, when Sisi asked Egyptians to back a bloody crackdown on what he called "terrorism". Hundreds of thousands turned out – and it became clear that, whatever his intentions at the start of the summer, Sisi now had a personal mandate from a significant section of the population. Exhausted by three years of post-revolutionary chaos, ordinary people wanted a strongman to restore stability. | But as summer wore on, and Egypt's media stoked a nationalist frenzy against the Brotherhood, political moderates were squeezed out – which left more room for Sisi. A turning point came on 26 July, when Sisi asked Egyptians to back a bloody crackdown on what he called "terrorism". Hundreds of thousands turned out – and it became clear that, whatever his intentions at the start of the summer, Sisi now had a personal mandate from a significant section of the population. Exhausted by three years of post-revolutionary chaos, ordinary people wanted a strongman to restore stability. |
| It nevertheless took until the end of March this year for Sisi to formally declare his candidacy and resign his military commission. Military sources say he wanted to make sure his loyalists were in place before he left the shelter of the army: he is the candidate of the establishment, but behind the scenes the establishment do not all back him. Sami Anan, his former superior in the army, mounted a short-lived rival campaign, while Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak's last prime minister, was heard in a leaked recording lambasting the "circus" surrounding Sisi, and speculating that his victory would be fixed. | It nevertheless took until the end of March this year for Sisi to formally declare his candidacy and resign his military commission. Military sources say he wanted to make sure his loyalists were in place before he left the shelter of the army: he is the candidate of the establishment, but behind the scenes the establishment do not all back him. Sami Anan, his former superior in the army, mounted a short-lived rival campaign, while Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak's last prime minister, was heard in a leaked recording lambasting the "circus" surrounding Sisi, and speculating that his victory would be fixed. |
| Leaked recordings of Sisi reveal his own oscillating ideas about the presidency. In a leak from last autumn, he wonders whether he might be allowed to return to the army should his attempt fail. But in another, he has no such doubts, claiming to have had visions that for more than 35 years have helped him see the future, including one in which he predicts he will be president. As Sisi tells it, he dreamed he met former leader Anwar Sadat, who died in 1981, and told him: "I know I'm going to be the president of the republic." | Leaked recordings of Sisi reveal his own oscillating ideas about the presidency. In a leak from last autumn, he wonders whether he might be allowed to return to the army should his attempt fail. But in another, he has no such doubts, claiming to have had visions that for more than 35 years have helped him see the future, including one in which he predicts he will be president. As Sisi tells it, he dreamed he met former leader Anwar Sadat, who died in 1981, and told him: "I know I'm going to be the president of the republic." |
| Quite what that presidency would look like remains to be seen. His manifesto has finally been published – an aide initially claimed it was too complex to be digested all at once – but it is vague on key issues such as the reform of Egypt's vast subsidies system. Judging from his few campaign interviews, Sisi's central belief is that Egyptians should leave their protests and picket lines, and work flat-out to restore economic and political stability. "Before you have breakfast," he asked young Egyptians in a recent appearance, "did you ask yourself: 'What have I done for Egypt?'" | Quite what that presidency would look like remains to be seen. His manifesto has finally been published – an aide initially claimed it was too complex to be digested all at once – but it is vague on key issues such as the reform of Egypt's vast subsidies system. Judging from his few campaign interviews, Sisi's central belief is that Egyptians should leave their protests and picket lines, and work flat-out to restore economic and political stability. "Before you have breakfast," he asked young Egyptians in a recent appearance, "did you ask yourself: 'What have I done for Egypt?'" |
| In this climate, revolutionary aspirations will probably take a back seat. In his speech to announce his candidacy, Sisi focused on restoring the prestige of state institutions – mentioning democracy only once, and omitting any reference to human rights. | In this climate, revolutionary aspirations will probably take a back seat. In his speech to announce his candidacy, Sisi focused on restoring the prestige of state institutions – mentioning democracy only once, and omitting any reference to human rights. |
| Analysts are divided about how much control Sisi has over a state apparatus with many factions and fiefdoms. "The most outstanding feature of this moment is that nobody is in charge," Michael Hanna, an Egypt analyst at the Century Foundation, said in March. | Analysts are divided about how much control Sisi has over a state apparatus with many factions and fiefdoms. "The most outstanding feature of this moment is that nobody is in charge," Michael Hanna, an Egypt analyst at the Century Foundation, said in March. |
| But others see Sisi's lack of campaigning as evidence he already feels in complete control. According to Springborg, Sisi's power is unprecedented because he has strong allies at the top of the army and each of the key intelligence services. "The deep state has never been this totally controlled by a single person – [whether Gamal] Nasser, Sadat or Mubarak – as it is now under Sisi," says the analyst. "So I think he feels invulnerable because there is no lever of power he does not have his hands on." | But others see Sisi's lack of campaigning as evidence he already feels in complete control. According to Springborg, Sisi's power is unprecedented because he has strong allies at the top of the army and each of the key intelligence services. "The deep state has never been this totally controlled by a single person – [whether Gamal] Nasser, Sadat or Mubarak – as it is now under Sisi," says the analyst. "So I think he feels invulnerable because there is no lever of power he does not have his hands on." |
| Whether he can keep them there – with an already dire economy, and with it his popularity, at risk of plummeting fast – is the key question. As the interim foreign minister, Nabil Fahmy, told the Guardian: "From 1952 to 2011 we had four presidents. From 2011 to mid-June 2014 we will have had four presidents. It means that Egyptians now are insistent on holding you accountable." | Whether he can keep them there – with an already dire economy, and with it his popularity, at risk of plummeting fast – is the key question. As the interim foreign minister, Nabil Fahmy, told the Guardian: "From 1952 to 2011 we had four presidents. From 2011 to mid-June 2014 we will have had four presidents. It means that Egyptians now are insistent on holding you accountable." |
| Additional reporting by Manu Abdo | Additional reporting by Manu Abdo |