Thailand: waiting for democracy

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/22/thailand-waiting-for-democracy

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Thais have been waiting for democracy since 1932, when the absolute monarchy was overthrown. They are still waiting. The imposition of military rule is only the latest in a series of rude interruptions of civilian government by the army, which has staged 18 coups since then, 11 of them successful. Civilian rule itself has been no democratic idyll, with some administrations managed from behind the scenes by the military, others chaotic coalitions, others still torn by clashes between wilful leaders of micro parties.

The broad story of Thai politics over the years has been one in which the country's establishment – the bureaucracy, the judiciary, the royal court, the army, and the Bangkok middle class – has used the political system, including its default mechanism of the military coup, to play out their own quarrels and rivalries. This changed when Thaksin Shinawatra, a former policeman who had become a highly successful businessman, arrived on the political scene. He abandoned the Bangkok merry-go-round, instead challenging it by seeking and winning votes among the poorer classes, particularly in the north of the country, as well as among residents of the capital originally from the outer provinces.

These were people whose attitude to those who had previously sought their support was summed up in the description of a politician as a baby bird. Each vote they gave him was like a feather; when he had enough feathers, he flew away, and they never saw him again. Thaksin was different. He delivered, changing lives with healthcare schemes, loan assistance and development funds. They voted for him gratefully and consistently, and when he went into exile, they voted for associates he nominated. When these were pushed out by various dirty tricks, they voted for his sister, recently also ousted on a legal technicality.

There was much that was problematic about Thaksin and his family, but the fundamental fact was that the old establishment could not cope with the reversal of fortune which had taken place. They tried to change the verdict of the polls on the streets, paralysing the business of government by the threat of violence and provoking an answering violence from Thaksin supporters.

The king was old and out of it, and there were no politicians with the seniority and moderation to mediate. That left the less than impartial army, whose sympathies lie with the establishment and which had intervened against Thaksin before, in 2006. It now has not much time to demonstrate its credentials as a referee. Thai coups in the past have usually been accepted with a shrug and a smile, but Thaksin's supporters have signalled repeatedly that they will not take a coup lying down. There could be dangerous days ahead.