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Lib Dem local election results suggest party could lose 20 parliamentary seats Lib Dem local election results suggest party could lose 20 parliamentary seats
(35 minutes later)
Nick Clegg is on course to lose as many as 20 parliamentary seats, including the Twickenham constituency of the business secretary, Vince Cable, according to projections based on share of the vote in the local elections. Nick Clegg is on course to lose as many as 20 parliamentary seats, including the Twickenham constituency of the business secretary, Vince Cable, according to projections based on his party's share of the vote in the local elections.
In a sign of the fall in support for the Liberal Democrats after four years in coalition with the Tories, the Guardian analysis of the local election results show that the veteran former deputy leader Simon Hughes would lose his Southwark and Bermondsey seat 32 years after an historic byelection victory over Labour. In a sign of the fall in support for the Liberal Democrats after four years in coalition with the Tories, the Guardian analysis of the results shows the veteran former deputy leader Simon Hughes would lose his Bermondsey and Old Southwark seat, 32 years after his historic byelection victory over Labour.
The loss of 20 seats, which would result in the number of Lib Dem MPs fall by nearly a third from the 57 elected in 2010, would be a blow to Clegg's authority. It would take the party well below the 46 seats won at 1997 general election – the year of Paddy Ashdown's breakthrough. The loss of 20 seats, which would cut the number of Lib Dem MPs by more than a third from the 57 elected in 2010, would be a blow to Clegg's authority. It would take the party well below the 46 seats won at the 1997 general election – the year of Paddy Ashdown's breakthrough.
But it would mean that the Lib Dems could still hold the balance of power in a hung parliament and that Clegg would be able to say that he has avoided what is being called the "nuclear wasteland" scenario in which the party would lose two thirds of its seats if it sank below the 20 seats it won in 1992. But it would mean the Lib Dems could still hold the balance of power in a hung parliament and the deputy prime minister would be able to say he has avoided what is being called the "nuclear wasteland" scenario in which his party would lose two thirds of its seats, sinking below the 20 it won in 1992.
The projections for the next election came amid signs that Clegg's leadership is safe until the general election next year. Cable and the party president, Tim Farron, the two most likely candidates to replace the deputy prime minister, went out of their way to express their loyalty to Clegg. The projections for the next election came amid signs that Clegg's leadership is safe until next year's general election. Cable and the party president, Tim Farron, the two most likely candidates to replace Clegg, went out of their way to express their loyalty to him.
Clegg loyalists believe the local elections show that the Lib Dems are on course for a reasonable performance in the general election because the party performed well – and even topped the poll – in a series of parliamentary seats currently held by the party. These include Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's constituency, where the Lib Dems claimed the constituency figures showed he would have been re-elected taking 53% of the vote, up 3.7 %, with Labour on 32% and the Conservatives on 14.7%. But the Tories did not stand in some of its safest wards in the constituency, depressing the Tory vote. Clegg loyalists believe the local elections show the Lib Dems are on course for a reasonable performance in the general election because the party performed well – and even topped the poll – in a series of parliamentary seats currently held by the party.
The Lib Dems also said they won Cheadle, Hazel Grove and Eastleigh scene of a Lib Dem byelection win in February last year when Mike Thornton held the seat, stabilising the deputy's prime minister's leadership. But the projections show the party will face a battle to hold onto vulnerable seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green in north London, Burnley, Cambridge, Solihul, Bradford and East Manchester Withington. These included Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's constituency, where the Lib Dems claimed the constituency figures showed he would have been re-elected taking 53% of the vote, up 3.7 %, with Labour on 32% and the Conservatives on 14.7%. However, the Tories did not stand in some of the safest Lib Dem wards in the constituency, depressing the Tory vote.
Many Lib Dem MPs in the south-west, often facing a Tory challenge, are not yet able to test the level of party support since there were few elections in their area. But the BBC's projection of a 13% share of the vote prompted Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, to say: "We are more than holding our own adding." The Lib Dems also said they won Cheadle, Hazel Grove and Eastleigh scene of a Lib Dem byelection win in February last year when Mike Thornton held the seat, stabilising Clegg's leadership.
In Southport, the seat of John Pugh, the Liberal Democrats would have held six of the seven seats inside his constituency. The Lib Dems look to have survived in Sutton and Cheam. But the projections show the party will face a battle to hold on to vulnerable seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green in north London, Solihull in the West Midlands, Burnley, Cambridge, Bradford and East Manchester Withington.
But in Portsmouth South where Mike Hancock is a sitting councillor and an MP, found himself ejected as a councillor. He stood as an independent. In some seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green, Labour polls 36 % and the Lib Dem 25 %. In Twickenham the Tories are beating Cable by 35 to 30. In Cambridge Julian Huppert also looks to be in trouble trailing Labour in the key wards by 39 to 28. Many Lib Dem MPs in the south-west, often facing a Tory challenge, are not yet able to test the level of party support since there were few elections in their area in the latest round. But the BBC's projection of a 13% share of the vote prompted Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, to say: "We are more than holding our own."
Simon Hughes told the Radio 4's PM programme: "We are not going to sweep the country next year. It will be difficult. But we plan to hold the ground we have. If we do that all the opinion polls suggest there is not going to be an overall majority for either of the other parties. There will therefore be a balanced parliament and we will be ready to play our way in continuing to build the economy." In Southport, the seat of John Pugh, the Lib Dems would have held six of the seven wards inside his constituency. The Lib Dems also look to have survived in Sutton and Cheam.
But in Portsmouth South where the MP, Mike Hancock, is also a sitting councillor, he found himself ejected as a councillor. He stood as an independent.
In some seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green, Labour polled 36% while the Lib Dems had 25%. In Twickenham, the Tories were beating Cable by 35% to 30%. In Cambridge Julian Huppert also looks to be in trouble, trailing Labour in the key wards by 39 to 28.
Hughes told Radio 4's PM programme: "We are not going to sweep the country next year. It will be difficult. But we plan to hold the ground we have. If we do that all the opinion polls suggest there is not going to be an overall majority for either of the other parties. There will therefore be a balanced parliament and we will be ready to play our way in continuing to build the economy."