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Lib Dems dispute 'post-Clegg' opinion poll findings 'Post-Clegg' opinion poll 'inexcusable', says Vince Cable
(35 minutes later)
The Liberal Democrats are disputing a set of opinion polls suggesting the party may fare better at the next election with a different leader. Vince Cable has said a opinion poll commissioned by a Lib Dem peer into Nick Clegg's electoral appeal was "totally inexcusable".
Research by ICM suggested the party may get more votes in a number of marginal seats if Nick Clegg were replaced. Mr Cable said the ICM poll was paid for by Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott - a former ally of his - without his or Mr Clegg's approval.
The party said the poll findings, leaked to the media, were too small for "firm conclusions" to be reached. The poll suggested the Lib Dems would pick up votes in marginal seats if Mr Clegg was replaced by Mr Cable.
The Lib Dems want to know who paid for the research amid claims it was commissioned by allies of Vince Cable. The row comes after the Lib Dems' dire performance in European elections.
The Spectator magazine and the Daily Telegraph both said the "prime suspect" being linked to the polls in Lib Dem circles was Lord Oakeshott, a close confidant of Mr Cable.
The row comes after the Lib Dems' dire performance in European elections increased pressure on Mr Clegg.
One MP has called for Mr Cable to take over as leader, although Mr Cable has rejected this.One MP has called for Mr Cable to take over as leader, although Mr Cable has rejected this.
The poll, first reported by the Guardian, looked at how the Lib Dems would do in Mr Clegg's own constituency, Sheffield Hallam, in the next election and three other seats held by Lib Dems: Redcar, Cambridge, and Wells in Somerset.The poll, first reported by the Guardian, looked at how the Lib Dems would do in Mr Clegg's own constituency, Sheffield Hallam, in the next election and three other seats held by Lib Dems: Redcar, Cambridge, and Wells in Somerset.
Alternative leadersAlternative leaders
It suggested that the party is on course to lose all four seats next year, with Labour threatening to dislodge Mr Clegg while also taking Redcar and Cambridge and the Conservatives winning Wells.It suggested that the party is on course to lose all four seats next year, with Labour threatening to dislodge Mr Clegg while also taking Redcar and Cambridge and the Conservatives winning Wells.
The polls were conducted in April and early May, before the council and European elections, with 500 people being interviewed in each constituency.The polls were conducted in April and early May, before the council and European elections, with 500 people being interviewed in each constituency.
Respondents were asked whom they intended to vote for in 2015 and a series of other questions, including whether they recognised their local MP and what issues would influence their voting intentions.Respondents were asked whom they intended to vote for in 2015 and a series of other questions, including whether they recognised their local MP and what issues would influence their voting intentions.
They were also asked whom they would vote for "if Nick Clegg stepped down as Liberal Democrat leader and Business Secretary Vince Cable moved into the job".They were also asked whom they would vote for "if Nick Clegg stepped down as Liberal Democrat leader and Business Secretary Vince Cable moved into the job".
The same questions were asked to gauge how people would vote if Mr Clegg were replaced by either party president Tim Farron or Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander.The same questions were asked to gauge how people would vote if Mr Clegg were replaced by either party president Tim Farron or Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander.
Although the polls suggested there would be a rise in support for the Lib Dems if any of the three men replaced Mr Clegg, it suggested the party could still struggle to retain any of the seats.Although the polls suggested there would be a rise in support for the Lib Dems if any of the three men replaced Mr Clegg, it suggested the party could still struggle to retain any of the seats.
The Lib Dems said polling data from last week's council elections, and other local polls in the Sheffield Hallam constituency since 2010, pointed towards the party retaining the seat next year.The Lib Dems said polling data from last week's council elections, and other local polls in the Sheffield Hallam constituency since 2010, pointed towards the party retaining the seat next year.
The party said it had got 38.7% of the vote in constituency wards in last week's election, comfortably ahead of Labour on 23.6% and the Tories on 10.7%,The party said it had got 38.7% of the vote in constituency wards in last week's election, comfortably ahead of Labour on 23.6% and the Tories on 10.7%,
The Lib Dems have also taken issue with how the research was conducted, saying the sample size was too small - meaning a larger margin of error in its outcomes - and claiming young voters were underrepresented.The Lib Dems have also taken issue with how the research was conducted, saying the sample size was too small - meaning a larger margin of error in its outcomes - and claiming young voters were underrepresented.
'Political leak''Political leak'
Stripping out those who either said they did not plan to vote or did not know whom they would vote for, the Lib Dems said the sample size was less than 300.Stripping out those who either said they did not plan to vote or did not know whom they would vote for, the Lib Dems said the sample size was less than 300.
"In short, it is impossible to predict a result with any confidence based on this polling," a spokesman said."In short, it is impossible to predict a result with any confidence based on this polling," a spokesman said.
Richard Kemp, Lib Dem former leader of Liverpool Council, told Sky News that it was a "spurious poll conducted against the rules with a tiny number of participants".Richard Kemp, Lib Dem former leader of Liverpool Council, told Sky News that it was a "spurious poll conducted against the rules with a tiny number of participants".
More than 51,000 people voted in Sheffield Hallam in the 2010 general election, when Mr Clegg was re-elected with a majority of 15,000.More than 51,000 people voted in Sheffield Hallam in the 2010 general election, when Mr Clegg was re-elected with a majority of 15,000.
ICM has declined to say who commissioned the research, estimated to have cost about £20,000, saying only that it was a member of the Lib Dems.ICM has declined to say who commissioned the research, estimated to have cost about £20,000, saying only that it was a member of the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems said the polling firm was obliged to adhere to principles of openness and transparency by virtue of its membership of the British Polling Council.The Lib Dems said the polling firm was obliged to adhere to principles of openness and transparency by virtue of its membership of the British Polling Council.
"We have no idea where this polling comes from but it has clearly been commissioned and leaked for political purposes," a party spokesman said."We have no idea where this polling comes from but it has clearly been commissioned and leaked for political purposes," a party spokesman said.
'Confidentiality''Confidentiality'
But Martin Boon, who carried out the research, said he had referred himself to the British Polling Council amid the row and it had found no rules had been broken.But Martin Boon, who carried out the research, said he had referred himself to the British Polling Council amid the row and it had found no rules had been broken.
"My client wanted to retain confidentiality so I have not put their name up to go with it.""My client wanted to retain confidentiality so I have not put their name up to go with it."
He said he had no idea how the research had ended up in the public domain.He said he had no idea how the research had ended up in the public domain.
There was no evidence, he added, that the person who commissioned the research had any involvement in it being leaked - which would be a breach of the industry's "rules of disclosure".There was no evidence, he added, that the person who commissioned the research had any involvement in it being leaked - which would be a breach of the industry's "rules of disclosure".
In a statement, the British Polling Council said: "Unless these circumstances change, the officers take the view that ICM are not obliged by BPC's rules to disclose any further information about the poll."In a statement, the British Polling Council said: "Unless these circumstances change, the officers take the view that ICM are not obliged by BPC's rules to disclose any further information about the poll."
ICM has stressed that the poll was "weighted" to take account of demographics, whether respondents had voted in the 2010 election, and how likely they were to vote next year.ICM has stressed that the poll was "weighted" to take account of demographics, whether respondents had voted in the 2010 election, and how likely they were to vote next year.
While the standard industry sample size for political polls was 1,000, it said that 500 was historically regarded as an "acceptable number" for research conducted at a constituency level.While the standard industry sample size for political polls was 1,000, it said that 500 was historically regarded as an "acceptable number" for research conducted at a constituency level.
ICM said all the polls were conducted using standard telephone methodology, although it had not "manually adjusted the data in the way we would have for a national poll".ICM said all the polls were conducted using standard telephone methodology, although it had not "manually adjusted the data in the way we would have for a national poll".