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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
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| Migration surge hits EU as thousands flock to Italy | Migration surge hits EU as thousands flock to Italy |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| There has been a significant rise in the numbers of migrants reaching Europe in recent months, the BBC has learned. | There has been a significant rise in the numbers of migrants reaching Europe in recent months, the BBC has learned. |
| The number of people attempting the dangerous sea crossing from North Africa to Italy has risen sharply, says Frontex, the EU border agency. | The number of people attempting the dangerous sea crossing from North Africa to Italy has risen sharply, says Frontex, the EU border agency. |
| From January to April, 42,000 migrants were detected on these routes, with 25,650 of these crossing from Libya. | From January to April, 42,000 migrants were detected on these routes, with 25,650 of these crossing from Libya. |
| Combined with seven other less busy routes, the total figure for this year is probably now about 60,000. | Combined with seven other less busy routes, the total figure for this year is probably now about 60,000. |
| On Wednesday, the Italian government said the number of refugees and other migrants reaching its shores had soared to more than 39,000. | On Wednesday, the Italian government said the number of refugees and other migrants reaching its shores had soared to more than 39,000. |
| The total for 2014 so far is more than the equivalent period in 2011, the year of the Arab Spring, which eventually saw 140,000 make clandestine crossings into Europe. | The total for 2014 so far is more than the equivalent period in 2011, the year of the Arab Spring, which eventually saw 140,000 make clandestine crossings into Europe. |
| "If the current trends continue, and with the summer months approaching, there is a strong likelihood the numbers will increase further," says Gil Arias Fernandez, Frontex's Deputy Executive Director. | "If the current trends continue, and with the summer months approaching, there is a strong likelihood the numbers will increase further," says Gil Arias Fernandez, Frontex's Deputy Executive Director. |
| At least a third of the latest arrivals are Syrians, fleeing that country's civil war. | At least a third of the latest arrivals are Syrians, fleeing that country's civil war. |
| But other significant numbers are coming from Afghanistan and Eritrea. | But other significant numbers are coming from Afghanistan and Eritrea. |
| In Calais, where the French authorities this week demolished two main squatter camps, the BBC found migrants from a host of countries, from West Africa to Bangladesh, with large groups from Iran and Pakistan's restive tribal areas. | In Calais, where the French authorities this week demolished two main squatter camps, the BBC found migrants from a host of countries, from West Africa to Bangladesh, with large groups from Iran and Pakistan's restive tribal areas. |
| Tracking one of the biggest migrations since World War Two | Tracking one of the biggest migrations since World War Two |
| Almost three million people have fled Syria's bloody civil war. UN figures show the human tide began in earnest in early 2012. | Almost three million people have fled Syria's bloody civil war. UN figures show the human tide began in earnest in early 2012. |
| Experts say the latest numbers are not surprising, after relatively low levels of migration in the early months of 2013. | Experts say the latest numbers are not surprising, after relatively low levels of migration in the early months of 2013. |
| "The main route through Libya was closed for so long that people in sub-Saharan countries have been waiting for a couple of years," says Franck Duvell, associate professor at the Centre on Migration, Policy, and Society at the University of Oxford. | "The main route through Libya was closed for so long that people in sub-Saharan countries have been waiting for a couple of years," says Franck Duvell, associate professor at the Centre on Migration, Policy, and Society at the University of Oxford. |
| "So the numbers have been building up and people were waiting for the very first opportunity to move," he says. | "So the numbers have been building up and people were waiting for the very first opportunity to move," he says. |
| "I'm not sure this implies that we are going to see ever-more people arriving in the EU over the next couple of months. We've got to wait and see." | "I'm not sure this implies that we are going to see ever-more people arriving in the EU over the next couple of months. We've got to wait and see." |
| Much depends on the chaotic political and security situation in Libya, where a BBC team has recently seen evidence that large numbers of migrants are still waiting to cross. Some estimates put the figure as high as 300,000. | Much depends on the chaotic political and security situation in Libya, where a BBC team has recently seen evidence that large numbers of migrants are still waiting to cross. Some estimates put the figure as high as 300,000. |
| Italy complains that since last October, when it launched its "Mare Nostrum" [Our Sea] rescue operation, the cost of patrolling its patch of the Mediterranean has risen to 300,000 euros (£240,200: $408,000) a day. |