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Q. and A. on the Syrian Presidential Election Q. and A. on the Syrian Presidential Election
(35 minutes later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Syria will hold a presidential election on Tuesday amid a three-year conflict that has killed more than 160,000 people and driven nine million from their homes. The disputed vote is virtually certain to give President Bashar al-Assad a third seven-year term. Opponents of the Assad administration have dismissed the election as a sham, given the government’s violent crackdown on a movement for political rights that began in 2011 and morphed into civil war.BEIRUT, Lebanon — Syria will hold a presidential election on Tuesday amid a three-year conflict that has killed more than 160,000 people and driven nine million from their homes. The disputed vote is virtually certain to give President Bashar al-Assad a third seven-year term. Opponents of the Assad administration have dismissed the election as a sham, given the government’s violent crackdown on a movement for political rights that began in 2011 and morphed into civil war.
Why care about this election?Why care about this election?
Despite the foregone conclusion, the vote is an important inflection point in the conflict. Mr. Assad’s domestic and international opponents long ridiculed his confidence that he would survive in power until the end of his current term in July. His supporters see his longevity as proof that he enjoys the backing of most Syrians. His opponents attribute it to the strong support he enjoys from Russia and China, and the lack of effective international backing for the armed opposition. Either way, the vote is an indication that Mr. Assad is unlikely to exit soon, and his re-election will signal a new phase in the conflict. After he reclaims the mantle of governance, it remains to be seen if he can or will fulfill his pledges to end the war and rebuild the shattered country.Despite the foregone conclusion, the vote is an important inflection point in the conflict. Mr. Assad’s domestic and international opponents long ridiculed his confidence that he would survive in power until the end of his current term in July. His supporters see his longevity as proof that he enjoys the backing of most Syrians. His opponents attribute it to the strong support he enjoys from Russia and China, and the lack of effective international backing for the armed opposition. Either way, the vote is an indication that Mr. Assad is unlikely to exit soon, and his re-election will signal a new phase in the conflict. After he reclaims the mantle of governance, it remains to be seen if he can or will fulfill his pledges to end the war and rebuild the shattered country.
Who is running?Who is running?
For the first time, Mr. Assad faces opponents, a novelty the Syrian government is advertising as a step toward democracy. But the two largely unknown candidates running against him were vetted by the government and security services. They are Hassan al-Nuri, a former government minister who made a fortune selling shoe brushes, and Maher al-Hajjar, a member of the tolerated Communist Party who has posted pictures of himself online under a portrait of Mr. Assad. Excluded by law from running are non-Muslims and anyone who has lived outside Syria in the past 10 years or holds a foreign passport, ruling out many opposition figures who left the country to flee persecution.For the first time, Mr. Assad faces opponents, a novelty the Syrian government is advertising as a step toward democracy. But the two largely unknown candidates running against him were vetted by the government and security services. They are Hassan al-Nuri, a former government minister who made a fortune selling shoe brushes, and Maher al-Hajjar, a member of the tolerated Communist Party who has posted pictures of himself online under a portrait of Mr. Assad. Excluded by law from running are non-Muslims and anyone who has lived outside Syria in the past 10 years or holds a foreign passport, ruling out many opposition figures who left the country to flee persecution.
Where can Syrians vote?Where can Syrians vote?
Those who live in insurgent-held areas will be unable to vote unless they cross the front lines, a dangerous prospect given the continuing warfare and the fear of being detained and questioned. Voting will take place in government-controlled areas, including parts or all of Syria’s major cities, except for Raqqa in the northeast. While about six million Syrians are displaced inside the country, officials say they can vote anywhere and do not need to return to their home districts.Those who live in insurgent-held areas will be unable to vote unless they cross the front lines, a dangerous prospect given the continuing warfare and the fear of being detained and questioned. Voting will take place in government-controlled areas, including parts or all of Syria’s major cities, except for Raqqa in the northeast. While about six million Syrians are displaced inside the country, officials say they can vote anywhere and do not need to return to their home districts.
Some Syrians abroad voted at embassies on Wednesday. In Lebanon, home to more than a million officially registered refugees, tens of thousands voted, but the nearly 13 percent of those refugees who left Syria through unofficial border crossings were excluded. Also excluded were Syrians living in countries that have severed diplomatic ties and in several countries that forbade embassies from holding ballots, including France and the United Arab Emirates.Some Syrians abroad voted at embassies on Wednesday. In Lebanon, home to more than a million officially registered refugees, tens of thousands voted, but the nearly 13 percent of those refugees who left Syria through unofficial border crossings were excluded. Also excluded were Syrians living in countries that have severed diplomatic ties and in several countries that forbade embassies from holding ballots, including France and the United Arab Emirates.
Can Syrians choose not to vote?Can Syrians choose not to vote?
The government says so, but historically there has been strong pressure to take part in elections, even when Mr. Assad — or before him his father, Hafez, who was in power from 1970 until his death in 2000 — was the sole candidate, officially winning 97 percent of the vote or more. Rebel and opposition groups have called on Syrians to boycott the election. In Lebanon on Wednesday, some Syrians said they were voting freely and enthusiastically; others said they were casting ballots for fear of being barred from returning home if they did not; and others boycotted, saying they would not go home as long as Mr. Assad was in power. One couple in Jordan, a brother and sister who declined to give their names, said they had cast blank ballots and knew many others who planned to do so.The government says so, but historically there has been strong pressure to take part in elections, even when Mr. Assad — or before him his father, Hafez, who was in power from 1970 until his death in 2000 — was the sole candidate, officially winning 97 percent of the vote or more. Rebel and opposition groups have called on Syrians to boycott the election. In Lebanon on Wednesday, some Syrians said they were voting freely and enthusiastically; others said they were casting ballots for fear of being barred from returning home if they did not; and others boycotted, saying they would not go home as long as Mr. Assad was in power. One couple in Jordan, a brother and sister who declined to give their names, said they had cast blank ballots and knew many others who planned to do so.
If the election will widely be seen abroad as illegitimate, why hold it?If the election will widely be seen abroad as illegitimate, why hold it?
Mr. Assad has said international opinion is irrelevant. His aim, analysts say, is to claim renewed legitimacy at home and to demonstrate that there is no need for the stalled international efforts to broker a political transition to a more inclusive government.Mr. Assad has said international opinion is irrelevant. His aim, analysts say, is to claim renewed legitimacy at home and to demonstrate that there is no need for the stalled international efforts to broker a political transition to a more inclusive government.
Can we learn anything from what happens on Tuesday?Can we learn anything from what happens on Tuesday?
While the election will be highly stage-managed — the government is giving very few visas to foreign reporters — the mood and logistics of the day could be revealing. Will there be violence? Demonstrations? Will turnout be higher or lower than in the past? Will people vote in significant numbers for Mr. Assad’s nominal opponents? If they do, will their votes be counted fairly?While the election will be highly stage-managed — the government is giving very few visas to foreign reporters — the mood and logistics of the day could be revealing. Will there be violence? Demonstrations? Will turnout be higher or lower than in the past? Will people vote in significant numbers for Mr. Assad’s nominal opponents? If they do, will their votes be counted fairly?
What will happen next?What will happen next?
Mr. Assad is likely to interpret his victory as a mandate to continue crushing the insurgency by force while offering amnesty to fighters who lay down arms, without addressing broader political demands. Some Syrian officials say that political reforms will come after the government is confident it can control the country. Government opponents argue that an emboldened Mr. Assad will crack down further, perhaps rounding up some civilian opposition activists who have been left alone as he focuses on military operations. Mr. Assad is likely to interpret his victory as a mandate to continue crushing the insurgency by force while offering amnesty to fighters who lay down arms, without addressing broader political demands. Some Syrian officials say that political overhauls will come after the government is confident it can control the country. Government opponents argue that an emboldened Mr. Assad will crack down further, perhaps rounding up some civilian opposition activists who have been left alone as he focuses on military operations.
Mr. Assad’s supporters see the vote as the beginning of the end of the conflict. The former United Nations mediator, Lakhdar Brahimi, and other observers have said that the decision to hold the election will only further polarize the country and prolong the war.Mr. Assad’s supporters see the vote as the beginning of the end of the conflict. The former United Nations mediator, Lakhdar Brahimi, and other observers have said that the decision to hold the election will only further polarize the country and prolong the war.