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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/03/wayne-swans-stint-as-treasurer-shows-numbers-are-not-his-strong-suit
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Wayne Swan's stint as treasurer shows numbers are not his strong suit | Wayne Swan's stint as treasurer shows numbers are not his strong suit |
| (2 months later) | |
| Imagine you had been treasurer of Australia for six years and never once delivered a surplus. | Imagine you had been treasurer of Australia for six years and never once delivered a surplus. |
| Imagine that one year you even announced “a surplus this coming year, on time, as promised, and surpluses each year after that, strengthening over time” – but still failed to deliver it. | Imagine that one year you even announced “a surplus this coming year, on time, as promised, and surpluses each year after that, strengthening over time” – but still failed to deliver it. |
| Imagine you had to watch your successor as treasurer deliver a budget offering a credible plan to steadily reduce the deficit, year after year. | Imagine you had to watch your successor as treasurer deliver a budget offering a credible plan to steadily reduce the deficit, year after year. |
| What could you say to divert attention? | What could you say to divert attention? |
| Obviously you could not say the goal of reducing deficits was a bad one, after you had long championed the same goal yourself. | Obviously you could not say the goal of reducing deficits was a bad one, after you had long championed the same goal yourself. |
| In an opinion piece yesterday, Wayne Swan has given us the answer to this question. | |
| You divert attention with a bold claim: the 2014-15 budget is a concerted attempt by a few rich guys from rich electorates to govern for the fat cats. | You divert attention with a bold claim: the 2014-15 budget is a concerted attempt by a few rich guys from rich electorates to govern for the fat cats. |
| You seize on a meaningless statistical artefact - that the prime minister and treasurer represent the "second richest" and "third richest" electorates (actually something quite different: the electorates with the second and third highest median weekly household incomes.) | You seize on a meaningless statistical artefact - that the prime minister and treasurer represent the "second richest" and "third richest" electorates (actually something quite different: the electorates with the second and third highest median weekly household incomes.) |
| You point to two recent Liberal leaders – Brendan Nelson represented Bradfield and Malcolm Turnbull represents Wentworth, electorates with respectively the highest and sixth highest median weekly household incomes. | You point to two recent Liberal leaders – Brendan Nelson represented Bradfield and Malcolm Turnbull represents Wentworth, electorates with respectively the highest and sixth highest median weekly household incomes. |
| You throw in a few barbs at Sydney’s North Shore – similar to Julia Gillard in 2012 saying that Tony Abbott should "get off Sydney’s North Shore and go and talk to some real families and get himself in the real world." | You throw in a few barbs at Sydney’s North Shore – similar to Julia Gillard in 2012 saying that Tony Abbott should "get off Sydney’s North Shore and go and talk to some real families and get himself in the real world." |
| Swan’s version is to label people on the North Shore as the "Military Road Mafia" and say they are the winners from the budget – because, he says, "policy choices are shaped … by the partisan ideology of the wealthiest." | Swan’s version is to label people on the North Shore as the "Military Road Mafia" and say they are the winners from the budget – because, he says, "policy choices are shaped … by the partisan ideology of the wealthiest." |
| Of course, to argue that the Coalition represents the silvertails and Labor stands for the battlers, he needs to ignore some inconvenient data. | Of course, to argue that the Coalition represents the silvertails and Labor stands for the battlers, he needs to ignore some inconvenient data. |
| For one thing, Labor holds plenty of electorates with high median weekly household incomes – Canberra, Fraser and Sydney all rank in the top 15 for example. | For one thing, Labor holds plenty of electorates with high median weekly household incomes – Canberra, Fraser and Sydney all rank in the top 15 for example. |
| Even more inconveniently, of the bottom ten electorates by median household income, nine are held by the Coalition (Hinkler, Cowper, Lyne, Page, Lyons, Mallee, Wide Bay, Braddon and Grey.) | Even more inconveniently, of the bottom ten electorates by median household income, nine are held by the Coalition (Hinkler, Cowper, Lyne, Page, Lyons, Mallee, Wide Bay, Braddon and Grey.) |
| Swan is happy to talk about the prime minister’s electorate – but not the deputy prime minister’s electorate, which at $858 a week has the seventh lowest median weekly household income of the 150 federal electorates. | Swan is happy to talk about the prime minister’s electorate – but not the deputy prime minister’s electorate, which at $858 a week has the seventh lowest median weekly household income of the 150 federal electorates. |
| This is a lot lower than the median weekly household income of the electorate of Lilley – represented by Swan today and when he was deputy prime minister – which Swan notes is just under $1,400. But who cares about facts when you are making bold rhetorical claims? | This is a lot lower than the median weekly household income of the electorate of Lilley – represented by Swan today and when he was deputy prime minister – which Swan notes is just under $1,400. But who cares about facts when you are making bold rhetorical claims? |
| According to Swan, we are seeing a “Tea party inspired strategy of seeking to shrink the size of the state.” | According to Swan, we are seeing a “Tea party inspired strategy of seeking to shrink the size of the state.” |
| The numbers tell a different story – under this budget spending rises from $415bn this year to $475bn by 2017-18 – but we know from Swan’s stint as treasurer that numbers are not his strong suit. | The numbers tell a different story – under this budget spending rises from $415bn this year to $475bn by 2017-18 – but we know from Swan’s stint as treasurer that numbers are not his strong suit. |
| But his biggest claim is that this budget is part of an “undeclared class and generational war” and now there is an increasing concentration of wealth at the top. | But his biggest claim is that this budget is part of an “undeclared class and generational war” and now there is an increasing concentration of wealth at the top. |
| The data do not support Swan’s claim that we are facing US style wealth inequality. According to the recent Credit Suisse World Wealth Report, Australia has the second least unequal wealth distribution of 27 major countries. | The data do not support Swan’s claim that we are facing US style wealth inequality. According to the recent Credit Suisse World Wealth Report, Australia has the second least unequal wealth distribution of 27 major countries. |
| This report also says Australians have the second highest average wealth per person in the world. Average wealth is important – but it can be skewed by a few extremely wealthy people. | This report also says Australians have the second highest average wealth per person in the world. Average wealth is important – but it can be skewed by a few extremely wealthy people. |
| So a better measure is median wealth: the number you get if you rank everyone in order from the wealthiest to the poorest, and take the wealth of the person who falls exactly in the middle. Remarkably, Australia had the highest median wealth of any country in the world – suggesting we have managed to share our national wealth more evenly than many other countries. | So a better measure is median wealth: the number you get if you rank everyone in order from the wealthiest to the poorest, and take the wealth of the person who falls exactly in the middle. Remarkably, Australia had the highest median wealth of any country in the world – suggesting we have managed to share our national wealth more evenly than many other countries. |
| Swan’s most revealing rhetorical flourish is to claim that this budget is "an assault on social justice in the short and long term." | Swan’s most revealing rhetorical flourish is to claim that this budget is "an assault on social justice in the short and long term." |
| He would evidently prefer to keep running deficits than get spending growth under control – even though if we fail to do so, and if debt keeps rising, eventually our lenders will impose austerity on us. | He would evidently prefer to keep running deficits than get spending growth under control – even though if we fail to do so, and if debt keeps rising, eventually our lenders will impose austerity on us. |
| Just look at the outcome from Greece’s profligate spending. Thanks to austerity budgets imposed by the IMF and the country’s lenders, the public hospital budget was cut by 25% between 2009 and 2011 and public spending on pharmaceuticals fell over 50%. | Just look at the outcome from Greece’s profligate spending. Thanks to austerity budgets imposed by the IMF and the country’s lenders, the public hospital budget was cut by 25% between 2009 and 2011 and public spending on pharmaceuticals fell over 50%. |
| Swan can indulge himself in emotional class war rhetoric; the Abbott government will get on with repairing the budget. | Swan can indulge himself in emotional class war rhetoric; the Abbott government will get on with repairing the budget. |
| That is the way to deliver social justice in the long term – because only by repairing the budget will we remain able to meet the welfare, health, education and other needs of the Australian people. | That is the way to deliver social justice in the long term – because only by repairing the budget will we remain able to meet the welfare, health, education and other needs of the Australian people. |