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Irish Keep Their Eyes on Scottish Independence Vote Irish Keep Their Eyes on Scottish Independence Vote
(3 months later)
BELFAST, Northern Ireland — If Scotland votes for independence in September, the impact will be felt in neighboring Northern Ireland, less than 20 miles across the Irish Sea. BELFAST, Northern Ireland — If Scotland votes for independence in September, the impact will be felt in neighboring Northern Ireland, less than 20 miles across the Irish Sea.
Amid a fragile peace, both nationalists and unionists here have been closely following the Scottish debate. Republicans spy an opportunity to rekindle their own dream of Irish unity; British loyalists, with their close ties to Scottish Protestants, are terrified of seeing the union they hold so dear disintegrate. Amid a fragile peace, both nationalists and unionists here have been closely following the Scottish debate. Republicans spy an opportunity to rekindle their own dream of Irish unity; British loyalists, with their close ties to Scottish Protestants, are terrified of seeing the union they hold so dear disintegrate.
As early as 2012, the former leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Tom Elliott, described the Scottish National Party as “a greater threat to the union than the violence of the I.R.A.,” referring to the Irish Republican Army.As early as 2012, the former leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Tom Elliott, described the Scottish National Party as “a greater threat to the union than the violence of the I.R.A.,” referring to the Irish Republican Army.
Ian Paisley Jr., a lawmaker for the Democratic Unionists, warned earlier this year that if Scotland voted for independence, it could embolden dissident republicans and kindle new violence in Northern Ireland. Reg Empey, another prominent unionist, predicted that Northern Ireland could end up “like West Pakistan,” with “a foreign country on one side of us and a foreign country on the other side of us.” Ian Paisley Jr., a lawmaker for the Democratic Unionists, warned earlier this year that if Scotland voted for independence, it could embolden dissident republicans and kindle new violence in Northern Ireland. Reg Empey, another prominent unionist, predicted that Northern Ireland could end up “like West Pakistan,” with “a foreign country on one side of us and a foreign country on the other side of us.”
Nationalists have privately floated the idea of a “border poll” on Irish unity; the last such referendum took place in 1973. But publicly, many play down the impact of the Scottish vote. Danny Morrison, a former head of publicity for Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the I.R.A., recently told The Sunday Herald in Scotland that despite the “schadenfreude,” it would not bring a united Ireland any closer. Nationalists have privately floated the idea of a “border poll” on Irish unity; the last such referendum took place in 1973. But publicly, many play down the impact of the Scottish vote. Danny Morrison, a former head of publicity for Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the I.R.A., recently told The Sunday Herald in Scotland that despite the “schadenfreude,” it would not bring a united Ireland any closer.
Few believe that there is an appetite for the prolonged fighting of the past in either community. But unlike modern Scottish nationalism, Irish nationalism has a bloody history.Few believe that there is an appetite for the prolonged fighting of the past in either community. But unlike modern Scottish nationalism, Irish nationalism has a bloody history.
An outfit called the Scottish National Liberation Army tried to model itself on the I.R.A., surfacing from time to time by sending letter bombs and threats, but it never amounted to much. If there is one thing supporters and opponents of Scottish independence share, it is pride that the run-up to the referendum in September has been a nonviolent — albeit spirited — process. An outfit called the Scottish National Liberation Army tried to model itself on the I.R.A., surfacing from time to time by sending letter bombs and threats, but it never amounted to much. If there is one thing supporters and opponents of Scottish independence share, it is pride that the run-up to the referendum in September has been a nonviolent — albeit spirited — process.
As Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, who hopes to lead his nation out of Britain, put it in a recent interview, “No one has had so much as a nosebleed.” As Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, who hopes to lead his nation out of Britain, put it in a recent interview, “No one has had so much as a nosebleed.”
By contrast, thousands died for Irish independence in the 1920s, a time when Britain still had an empire and defended it with soldiers. Many more suffered during the Troubles that for three decades pitted Roman Catholic nationalists against Protestant unionists and the British Army in Northern Ireland, which has remained part of Britain.By contrast, thousands died for Irish independence in the 1920s, a time when Britain still had an empire and defended it with soldiers. Many more suffered during the Troubles that for three decades pitted Roman Catholic nationalists against Protestant unionists and the British Army in Northern Ireland, which has remained part of Britain.
Since 1998, the two sides have co-existed under the carefully calibrated Good Friday Agreement. But their distrust runs deep, and their neighborhoods remain fiercely segregated.Since 1998, the two sides have co-existed under the carefully calibrated Good Friday Agreement. But their distrust runs deep, and their neighborhoods remain fiercely segregated.
“There is always the potential for violence,” said Daithi O’Ceallaigh, a former Irish ambassador to Britain and one of the first Irish diplomats to serve in Belfast in 1985. “Northern Ireland needs stability, and at the moment there is a lot of uncertainty on the horizon.”“There is always the potential for violence,” said Daithi O’Ceallaigh, a former Irish ambassador to Britain and one of the first Irish diplomats to serve in Belfast in 1985. “Northern Ireland needs stability, and at the moment there is a lot of uncertainty on the horizon.”
Beyond stoking nationalism, Scottish independence could have other destabilizing effects: It could reduce the financial subsidies that flow from Westminster. London has long stopped considering Northern Ireland as a strategic asset, said James Mitchell of Edinburgh University, seeing it instead as “a costly liability.” Beyond stoking nationalism, Scottish independence could have other destabilizing effects: It could reduce the financial subsidies that flow from Westminster. London has long stopped considering Northern Ireland as a strategic asset, said James Mitchell of Edinburgh University, seeing it instead as “a costly liability.”
More important, a vote in favor of independence could increase the chances of Britain leaving the European Union in a possible referendum in 2017. Scottish voters tend to be more pro-European than their English counterparts. More important, a vote in favor of independence could increase the chances of Britain leaving the European Union in a possible referendum in 2017. Scottish voters tend to be more pro-European than their English counterparts.
The soft border between Northern Ireland and the republic would then become a harder border between Britain and the European Union, which could be “explosive,” said Mr. O’Ceallaigh, now at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, a pro-European think tank. The soft border between Northern Ireland and the republic would then become a harder border between Britain and the European Union, which could be “explosive,” said Mr. O’Ceallaigh, now at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, a pro-European think tank.
Whatever the impact of the Scottish vote here, some Irish nationalists say a peaceful secession would simply set an important precedent in Britain and beyond. “Independence without murdering anyone,” said Catherine McCartney, who grew up in a Catholic neighborhood during the Troubles and lost her brother in a bar fight involving former I.R.A. members in 2005, “that is something to be proud of.”Whatever the impact of the Scottish vote here, some Irish nationalists say a peaceful secession would simply set an important precedent in Britain and beyond. “Independence without murdering anyone,” said Catherine McCartney, who grew up in a Catholic neighborhood during the Troubles and lost her brother in a bar fight involving former I.R.A. members in 2005, “that is something to be proud of.”