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Environment Agency warns of localised flooding in England and Wales Storms threaten return of floods to England and Wales
(35 minutes later)
Thundery showers are expected to hit parts of the UK on Saturday, bringing the risk of localised flooding in England and Wales, the Environment Agency warned. Torrential downpours from severe thunderstorms are threatening to bring flooding back to England and Wales on Saturday, according to a warning issued by the Environment Agency on Thursday. Both river flooding and flash flooding are feared, with only Devon, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire exempt from the risk.
Warm, humid air is expected to be pulled northwards from France and Spain and heavy rain is expected to come up through the south-west in the early hours of Saturday morning, the Met Office said. The warning, along with an extreme weather warning from the Met Office, comes as Reading University scientists revealed that January to May was the wettest start to a year in over a century of their records. The winter of 2013-14 was the wettest for at least 250 years.
On Thursday morning the Environment Agency had 104 "low risk" warnings of flooding in place. An Agency spokesman said: "Heavy rain with isolated torrential downpours may bring some river and surface water flooding on Saturday across all of England, except for Devon and Cornwall, and all of Wales, except for Pembrokeshire. Any flooding is likely to be localised within this broad area at risk with urban areas and small rivers most likely to be affected. Flooding of properties and parts of communities is possible as well as disruption to travel." "Heavy rain with isolated torrential downpours may bring some river and surface water flooding on Saturday,” the EA warned. “Urban areas and small rivers are most likely to be affected. Flooding of properties and parts of communities is possible as well as disruption to travel.” The agency had 104 "low risk" warnings of flooding in place on Thursday morning.
The Met Office's Laura Young said that while the path of the rain could change between now and Saturday – on Thursday morning the Met Office had yellow "be prepared" warnings in place for southern Scotland, England and Wales but said the areas most at risk were difficult to predict – the current expectation was that the north-west of England, Wales, the west of Scotland and Northern Ireland would be worst affected. The speed at which the rain clears the south-west could spare it the worst of the impact of the showers, which could include flooding, Young said. The cause of the predicted storms is a low pressure system sitting off the west coast of Ireland which is pulling in warm, humid air from France. “This is the perfect recipe for an explosive thunderstorm,” said Rob Thompson, a meteorologist at the University of Reading.
The Met Office said: “The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding due to the intensity of these storms, although at this stage the location of the heaviest rainfall is uncertain.”
The Met Office's Laura Young said that while the path of the rain could change between now and Saturday – on Thursday morning the Met Office had yellow "be prepared" warnings in place for southern Scotland, England and Wales but said the areas most at risk were difficult to predict – the current expectation was that the north-west of England, Wales, the west of Scotland and Northern Ireland would be worst affected.
The speed at which the rain clears the south-west could spare it the worst of the impact of the showers, which could include flooding, Young said.
Although the Met Office classifies 1 June as the beginning of summer, she said that the heavy showers were not an unusual occurrence around the changeover from spring to summer.Although the Met Office classifies 1 June as the beginning of summer, she said that the heavy showers were not an unusual occurrence around the changeover from spring to summer.
The warnings from the Met Office come after mini-tornados were spotted by members of the public in the Midlands and Cambridge on Wednesday, when there was heavy rain in much of the country.The warnings from the Met Office come after mini-tornados were spotted by members of the public in the Midlands and Cambridge on Wednesday, when there was heavy rain in much of the country.
Hannah Cloke, a flooding expert at the University of Reading, said: “The [flash flooding] problem is likely to be exacerbated in areas where the ground is still wet from the winter floods, particularly in catchments with high groundwater levels and where rivers are still high following Britain’s wettest winter ever.”
She said: “When it rains very heavily, almost anywhere could be at risk. Extremely intense bursts of rain can mean that the soil is simply unable to soak up the water fast enough, so excess water runs off and causes floods in all sorts of unexpected places.”
Continuous weather records at Reading go back to 1908, and from January to May recorded 462 mm of rain, 25mm more than any other year. The January to May period was also the third warmest start to a year on record.
Despite the heavy downpours predicted for Saturday, it is likely to be warm, with most places seeing temperatures in the late teens and eastern England expected to enjoy the best of the weather, missing the worst of the rain and staying relatively dry. "It could be one of the warmest days of the year so far [in the south-east]," said Young. "It could reach 24 to 25C or even 28 at Heathrow." After feeling humid on Saturday, Sunday is likely to feel a lot fresher, she said.Despite the heavy downpours predicted for Saturday, it is likely to be warm, with most places seeing temperatures in the late teens and eastern England expected to enjoy the best of the weather, missing the worst of the rain and staying relatively dry. "It could be one of the warmest days of the year so far [in the south-east]," said Young. "It could reach 24 to 25C or even 28 at Heathrow." After feeling humid on Saturday, Sunday is likely to feel a lot fresher, she said.
The forecast for next week is for an early reversal of fortune with the south-east getting showers on Monday morning. But while there will continue to be some rain, Young said there is good news around the corner with the weather expected to get "better and better".The forecast for next week is for an early reversal of fortune with the south-east getting showers on Monday morning. But while there will continue to be some rain, Young said there is good news around the corner with the weather expected to get "better and better".
In December, the EA published new maps showing 3m properties in England are at risk from flash flooding, including No10 Downing Street. When river and coastal flooding is taken into account, 5m homes are at risk. Intense downpours are becoming more common, according to the Met Office, and when water overwhelms the drains, it leads to flash flooding, also called surface water flooding.
Climate change is increasing the risk of flooding in England and previous research showed that severe floods as long ago as 2000 were made twice as likely by global warming. The coalition government cut annual flood defence spending by a quarter on entering office. While spending has been increased since, it remains below 2010 levels.
Lord Krebs, of the government's official advisers, the Committee on Climate Change, told the Guardian in February that ministers had been clearly warned of the consequences of the cuts. "The bottom line is that the Environment Agency said loud and clear that if we are going to keep the risk of flooding at the current level, we need an extra £500m during the spending period from 2011 to 2015."