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Popularity of Miliband and Clegg falls to lowest levels recorded by ICM poll | Popularity of Miliband and Clegg falls to lowest levels recorded by ICM poll |
(about 9 hours later) | |
Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg both suffered a sharp drop in their personal popularity between May and June, falling to their lowest figures ever recorded in a Guardian-ICM poll. David Cameron also took a hit but his score looks like a victory by comparison. | |
In figures that will concern the Labour leader's team, Miliband's net satisfaction rating slipped from -25 to -39; the figure is the difference between the 22% who said he was doing a good job and the 61% who said the opposite. The drop from May's rating is thought to be largely due to previous don't knows firming up with a negative opinion of his performance. | |
Clegg's satisfaction ratings fell 16 points over the same period to -37, as voters responded to his European elections performance. This is also his lowest satisfaction rating since he became deputy prime minister. | |
Overall, the shift away from the two main parties continues, with the Tories falling back on last month by two points, leaving the combined share of the vote for the big two parties at 63%, its lowest ever recorded by ICM using the phone method. | |
The Liberal Democrat vote is down three percentage points from May and is the joint lowest ever captured by ICM, the previous low coming in February this year. | |
But Ukip continues to prosper despite a drop-off in publicity for Nigel Farage's party after the European elections. | |
The ICM poll for June gives Labour a slender one-point lead. The drop in support for the Conservatives was also reflected in Cameron's personal approval rating. He fell from +2 to -5 this month, although the consolation for him is that he is still the best regarded of all of the party leaders, including Farage. | |
George Osborne, the chancellor, continues to outperform everyone, at +6, suggesting he is personally reaping the rewards for the improving economy. His personal ratings reflect a notable turnaround in his fortunes from the summer of 2012 symbolised by the booing by the crowd at the Summer Olympics. | |
Elsewhere, the coalition government is more favourably regarded than in April when this question was last asked (-10 compared with -20). The figure can often track voters' views on their personal finances. | |
With the governor of the Bank of England warning the markets that a rise in interest rates may occur earlier than they had foreseen, the poll suggests such a rise may reinforce rather than disrupt existing voting patterns. A rise is favoured most by older voters who tend to be savers, and feared most by younger voters. | With the governor of the Bank of England warning the markets that a rise in interest rates may occur earlier than they had foreseen, the poll suggests such a rise may reinforce rather than disrupt existing voting patterns. A rise is favoured most by older voters who tend to be savers, and feared most by younger voters. |
Overall there is a split in public response. A quarter (27%) welcome the prospect while a third (33%) believe it would make little difference to their situation. However, while a fifth (22%) state that they could cope with an increase in interest rates after making some sacrifices on other things, 13% say their household is in considerable debt and that a rise would tip them over the edge. | Overall there is a split in public response. A quarter (27%) welcome the prospect while a third (33%) believe it would make little difference to their situation. However, while a fifth (22%) state that they could cope with an increase in interest rates after making some sacrifices on other things, 13% say their household is in considerable debt and that a rise would tip them over the edge. |
Not surprisingly these findings differ markedly by age group, with older people aged 65+ (ie. those mainly on fixed incomes) strongly welcoming the prospect of an increase in rates (50%) compared with 13% of 18- to 34-year-olds. In contrast, younger people are far more likely than older people to say that they would be able to cope but only after making sacrifices (30% among 18-34s vs 10% among over 65s). Those who say they would struggle are most likely to be 25-34 year olds (17%). | Not surprisingly these findings differ markedly by age group, with older people aged 65+ (ie. those mainly on fixed incomes) strongly welcoming the prospect of an increase in rates (50%) compared with 13% of 18- to 34-year-olds. In contrast, younger people are far more likely than older people to say that they would be able to cope but only after making sacrifices (30% among 18-34s vs 10% among over 65s). Those who say they would struggle are most likely to be 25-34 year olds (17%). |
Politically, Tory and Ukip supporters (39% and 36%) are more favourable toward an interest rate increase than Labour and Lib Dem voters (23% and 22%). | Politically, Tory and Ukip supporters (39% and 36%) are more favourable toward an interest rate increase than Labour and Lib Dem voters (23% and 22%). |
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