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| Questions and Answers About the Crisis in Iraq | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| The conflict in Syria has escalated into a wider regional crisis, edging neighboring Iraq closer to all-out sectarian warfare, as Sunni militants led by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, have taken over large areas of the country where they hope to establish an Islamic caliphate. | The conflict in Syria has escalated into a wider regional crisis, edging neighboring Iraq closer to all-out sectarian warfare, as Sunni militants led by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, have taken over large areas of the country where they hope to establish an Islamic caliphate. |
| New York Times correspondents in Iraq and across the Middle East are answering your questions about the Islamist offensive in Iraq, the history of Shiite-Sunni strife in the region and what options the United States has to help resolve the conflict. If you have more questions, post them in the comments section and our correspondents will answer in this continuing Q. and A. | New York Times correspondents in Iraq and across the Middle East are answering your questions about the Islamist offensive in Iraq, the history of Shiite-Sunni strife in the region and what options the United States has to help resolve the conflict. If you have more questions, post them in the comments section and our correspondents will answer in this continuing Q. and A. |
| Q. How well-armed and equipped is ISIS, and who is supplying those arms? How large is the organization? Do they have a cohesive command structure or is it more fractured? What is their core belief system that allows them to commit such atrocities? - Chad O from Madison, Wis. | |
| A.ISIS has thousands of fighters, perhaps more than 10,000, across Iraq and Syria. Most of its fighters carry light weapons, like assault rifles, machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers, but the group also boasts an array of heavy weapons, including tanks and armored vehicles. Some of its arms are purchased from smugglers, but it has also added to its arsenal weapons captured from the Iraqi or Syrian militaries, or from other militias in Syria. | |
| ISIS has millions of dollars to run its operations. It started mainly with donations from wealthy supporters in the Persian Gulf and it has developed numerous revenue streams as it has seized territory. These include robbing banks, taking over oil fields and charging civilians and merchants “taxes" in areas under its control. | |
| ISIS does have one undisputed leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, although little is known about him or about how important he is in running the group’s day-to-day operations. While groups of ISIS fighters operate largely independently in their respective areas, the organization does have the ability to bring them together for more coordinated operations. | |
| ISIS subscribes to an extreme interpretation of Islam that is very close to that of Al Qaeda, but the two groups differ in tactics and priorities. While Al Qaeda often seeks to enhance the ability of local insurgencies to wage war against governments, ISIS seeks to found and expand an Islamic state on its own terms. And while Al Qaeda’s leaders have at times criticized the group’s affiliates for being too brutal, ISIS makes a point of advertising its brutality, especially against Shiites, as a way to spread fear and gain recruits. | |
| - Ben Hubbard, Middle East correspondent based in Beirut, Lebanon. Follow him on Twitter @NYTBen. | |
| Q. ISIS seems to have legit online following. Is this reflective of support on the ground? - Anne Mangold on Twitter. | Q. ISIS seems to have legit online following. Is this reflective of support on the ground? - Anne Mangold on Twitter. |
| A. ISIS has a huge and very aggressive social media operation, but I don’t know how anyone could characterize that as a legitimate following. I suspect a lot of their followers, clicks and retweets are voyeuristic because the material posted is so bloody and savage, and ISIS is completely unapologetic about it. Hopefully, most of their following is aghast. | A. ISIS has a huge and very aggressive social media operation, but I don’t know how anyone could characterize that as a legitimate following. I suspect a lot of their followers, clicks and retweets are voyeuristic because the material posted is so bloody and savage, and ISIS is completely unapologetic about it. Hopefully, most of their following is aghast. |
| In that sense, their online presence is completely disconnected from what’s happening on the ground, where, often enough, there’s no electricity, let alone an Internet connection. (Quite astutely, the Iraqi government has taken measures to block Twitter, Facebook, Skype and other sorts of social media, to limit ISIS propaganda.) Most people in the territory ISIS controls do not seem terribly supportive of them, but they hate the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government far more, and ISIS takes pains to treat the Sunnis in their dominions with consideration — at least at first. That is the central challenge that the Iraqi government faces, to convince people in ISIS-dominated areas that their government wants to include them, and has more to offer than the ISIS extremists. | In that sense, their online presence is completely disconnected from what’s happening on the ground, where, often enough, there’s no electricity, let alone an Internet connection. (Quite astutely, the Iraqi government has taken measures to block Twitter, Facebook, Skype and other sorts of social media, to limit ISIS propaganda.) Most people in the territory ISIS controls do not seem terribly supportive of them, but they hate the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government far more, and ISIS takes pains to treat the Sunnis in their dominions with consideration — at least at first. That is the central challenge that the Iraqi government faces, to convince people in ISIS-dominated areas that their government wants to include them, and has more to offer than the ISIS extremists. |
| - Rod Nordland, Kabul Bureau chief currently in Iraq. Follow him on Twitter @rodnordland. | - Rod Nordland, Kabul Bureau chief currently in Iraq. Follow him on Twitter @rodnordland. |
| Q. What is the difference between the U.S. supporting Sunni militia groups in Syria, yet not Iraq? Because the U.S. supports Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and not Bashar al-Assad? - BLJ from Washington, D.C. | Q. What is the difference between the U.S. supporting Sunni militia groups in Syria, yet not Iraq? Because the U.S. supports Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and not Bashar al-Assad? - BLJ from Washington, D.C. |
| A. It’s not as simple as that, and the dynamic in the two countries is completely different. In Syria, there is a minority elite, the Alawites, who are in power through undemocratic means and have oppressed the Sunni majority. So when the events in Syria began as a peaceful uprising, the United States supported the opposition. And when it evolved into an armed conflict, the United States gradually – many critics say not quickly or aggressively enough – increased support to the moderate opposition among the rebel ranks. | A. It’s not as simple as that, and the dynamic in the two countries is completely different. In Syria, there is a minority elite, the Alawites, who are in power through undemocratic means and have oppressed the Sunni majority. So when the events in Syria began as a peaceful uprising, the United States supported the opposition. And when it evolved into an armed conflict, the United States gradually – many critics say not quickly or aggressively enough – increased support to the moderate opposition among the rebel ranks. |
| In Iraq, you have a government dominated by the Shiite majority that is in power through elections that have been judged by international monitors to have been largely free and fair. So the composition of the government reflects the will of the people. But how the prime minister has behaved – shunting aside Sunni and Kurd leaders and consolidating power for the Shiites – is the problem, and that is why you are seeing a big push by the Americans to emphasize political change in Iraq. | In Iraq, you have a government dominated by the Shiite majority that is in power through elections that have been judged by international monitors to have been largely free and fair. So the composition of the government reflects the will of the people. But how the prime minister has behaved – shunting aside Sunni and Kurd leaders and consolidating power for the Shiites – is the problem, and that is why you are seeing a big push by the Americans to emphasize political change in Iraq. |
| You have the United States pushing in both countries for the empowerment of Sunnis: In Syria they have stepped up support for the moderate Sunni opposition, and in Iraq there is new pressure on the government to make concessions to the Sunnis through the political process. | You have the United States pushing in both countries for the empowerment of Sunnis: In Syria they have stepped up support for the moderate Sunni opposition, and in Iraq there is new pressure on the government to make concessions to the Sunnis through the political process. |
| - Tim Arango, Baghdad Bureau chief. Follow him on Twitter @tarangoNYT. | - Tim Arango, Baghdad Bureau chief. Follow him on Twitter @tarangoNYT. |
| Q. Why would a negotiated settlement of the longstanding problems between the Shia, Sunni and Kurds that leads to the establishment of three separate states controlled and populated by Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the middle and Shia in the south be a threat to the U.S. and its allies? - Dave Kennedy from Buda, Tex. | Q. Why would a negotiated settlement of the longstanding problems between the Shia, Sunni and Kurds that leads to the establishment of three separate states controlled and populated by Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the middle and Shia in the south be a threat to the U.S. and its allies? - Dave Kennedy from Buda, Tex. |
| A. Over the last 10 days or so, some have predicted that this is exactly the way Iraq will go. However, this is not the policy of the United States. While it may seem simple on its face, it is anything but. | A. Over the last 10 days or so, some have predicted that this is exactly the way Iraq will go. However, this is not the policy of the United States. While it may seem simple on its face, it is anything but. |
| For the Kurds to break away and form their own state, it would be a direct threat to Turkey, an important ally to the United States, which for more than 20 years has been locked in a violent conflict with its own Kurds. Granting the Iraqi Kurds independence is likely to be seen as a threat to Turkey, because it would embolden ambitions of Kurds there while the government is negotiating to end the conflict with its Kurdish population. A new Kurdish state in northern Iraq would upset that process. Iran also has a sizable Kurdish population, and would likely resist Kurdish statehood. | For the Kurds to break away and form their own state, it would be a direct threat to Turkey, an important ally to the United States, which for more than 20 years has been locked in a violent conflict with its own Kurds. Granting the Iraqi Kurds independence is likely to be seen as a threat to Turkey, because it would embolden ambitions of Kurds there while the government is negotiating to end the conflict with its Kurdish population. A new Kurdish state in northern Iraq would upset that process. Iran also has a sizable Kurdish population, and would likely resist Kurdish statehood. |
| And then there is the issue of the Sunni and Shiites in Iraq. And here, you have the question of how to split the oil. The Sunni-dominated areas, especially in the desert province of Anbar, do not have the oil resources that the Shiite-dominated South does. A breakup could leave the Sunnis without a way to fund their new state. | And then there is the issue of the Sunni and Shiites in Iraq. And here, you have the question of how to split the oil. The Sunni-dominated areas, especially in the desert province of Anbar, do not have the oil resources that the Shiite-dominated South does. A breakup could leave the Sunnis without a way to fund their new state. |
| Many observers are stopping short of calling for three independent states, and instead argue for a confederation in which the regions would be largely self-governing but would be linked by diplomacy, the sharing of oil revenue and a common currency. | Many observers are stopping short of calling for three independent states, and instead argue for a confederation in which the regions would be largely self-governing but would be linked by diplomacy, the sharing of oil revenue and a common currency. |
| - Tim Arango | - Tim Arango |
| Q. Is there any precedent in the region where Sunnis and Shias are sharing power to the basic contentment of both? - Fraser from Wellington, New Zealand | Q. Is there any precedent in the region where Sunnis and Shias are sharing power to the basic contentment of both? - Fraser from Wellington, New Zealand |
| A. There are a few mixed states: Lebanon, Syria and Bahrain, among others in the Middle East and beyond (like Iran), are predominantly Sunni or predominantly Shia. Neither Lebanon nor Syria nor Bahrain have managed in recent years to have peace among the different groups. Lebanon is split three ways between Sunni, Shiites and Christians, and there is a fractious relationship among the different sects. | A. There are a few mixed states: Lebanon, Syria and Bahrain, among others in the Middle East and beyond (like Iran), are predominantly Sunni or predominantly Shia. Neither Lebanon nor Syria nor Bahrain have managed in recent years to have peace among the different groups. Lebanon is split three ways between Sunni, Shiites and Christians, and there is a fractious relationship among the different sects. |
| However, Bahrain, where the Muslim population is about a third Sunni and two-thirds Shiite, was until the Arab Spring relatively peaceful. Protests by Shiites who do not have as much access to power turned violent, and it is no longer as stable as it once was. | However, Bahrain, where the Muslim population is about a third Sunni and two-thirds Shiite, was until the Arab Spring relatively peaceful. Protests by Shiites who do not have as much access to power turned violent, and it is no longer as stable as it once was. |
| Syria, of course, is in the throes of bloody and brutal civil war. | Syria, of course, is in the throes of bloody and brutal civil war. |
| - Alissa J. Rubin, former chief of the Baghdad and Kabul Bureaus, currently Paris Bureau chief reporting in Iraq. Follow her on Twitter @Alissanyt. | - Alissa J. Rubin, former chief of the Baghdad and Kabul Bureaus, currently Paris Bureau chief reporting in Iraq. Follow her on Twitter @Alissanyt. |