The Guardian view on the Labour leadership

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/22/guardian-view-labour-leadership-ed-miliband

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Ed Miliband will lead the Labour party into the next election. On most analyses, at least as the leader of the largest party, he is the most likely next prime minister. Neither of these statements is seriously questioned. Yet speculation about his hold on power has dominated political news over the weekend, and only some of it comes from Labour's traditional critics in the tabloid media. , some of his allies – Andy Burnham, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna and Neil Kinnock – sought to staunch the criticisms with a counterblast. But, like the question about beating your wife, it is tricky to defend a beleaguered leader without lending credibility to the criticisms. The muttering must stop. But Mr Miliband is not entirely blameless for the sense of drift that's gripped the party since the less than overwhelming European and local elections last month.

Although – as Mr Kinnock remembers with justifiable bitterness – the media assault is not new, the territory where Mr Miliband finds himself now is unfamiliar. It is more than 40 years since there was last a one-term opposition, when Labour lost narrowly in 1970 and then won even more narrowly in 1974. It is also true that the circumstances of Mr Miliband's election gave him a tough start: by the time he was installed in such contentious circumstances, the terms of the debate had been set by the coalition and Labour's economic record had been serially misrepresented without effective rebuttal. Then the fixed-term parliament has had the unexpected consequence of making it hard to generate excitement around campaigning (or politics at all).

Above all, the prospect of the era of austerity lasting for at least another five years, and the almost paranoid caution among Labour policymakers fearful of giving the slightest opening to the Tories, has had a chilling effect on policy development, and even, it seems, on the party's capacity to fight the coalition. Shadow ministers are right to be careful. The chancellor is wrong to stop the Office for Budget Responsibility doing the sums on Labour's economic pledges. But if individual policies need solid detail, the job of the leader is to convey a bold and persuasive narrative.

This is where Mr Miliband's personal ratings start to matter. Edward the professor is likable and trustworthy, but what the party needs more of is Evangelical Ed. He can do it – he did it on Rupert Murdoch and he did it on energy prices. But far too often commitment is suppressed by calculation and hair-splitting equivocation over which demographic needs what message. Caution is rarely a cool look when at heart the exercise is salesmanship. What selling needs is high visibility, unblinking belief and a capacity to persuade that starts with immediate colleagues – which is why the backbiting sets up such a damaging circle of negativity.

Assessment of Mr Miliband is coloured by the success of the last two leaders of the opposition. But David Cameron and Tony Blair were both up against governments that were already flagging. Nor – the critics would do well to recall – do opposition leaders necessarily make or break political outcomes. Support for Margaret Thatcher in 1979 lagged well behind her party. The Conservatives still won.

Harold Wilson once likened his party to a stagecoach. If it rattled along everyone was too exhilarated to complain. "But if you stop, everybody gets out and argues about where to go." Mr Miliband's big problem is not of style, his hypermobile facial expressions, but of substance: his failure to convey a sense of urgency. Yet there is much to be urgent about. The coalition is adrift on schools, student loans and child protection. The NHS is on the brink of a very serious cash crisis. Welfare reforms are mired in overcomplex change that is proving to be so unwieldy and expensive it will fulfil none of Iain Duncan Smith's ambitions. The coalition has had MPs disgraced by their personal conduct and embarrassed by Twitter. And yet it is Labour that staggers. It is time to get out and make the case for a change of government. Before it is too late.