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Putin Attempts to Straddle a Divide He Helped to Pry Open in Ukraine Putin Attempts to Straddle a Divide He Helped to Pry Open in Ukraine
(2 months later)
MOSCOW — Russia’s charged balancing act in its policy toward Ukraine was evident on Sunday, with President Vladimir V. Putin both endorsing a peace plan outlined by the Ukrainian president and rebuking Kiev for the shaky cease-fire. MOSCOW — Russia’s charged balancing act in its policy toward Ukraine was evident on Sunday, with President Vladimir V. Putin both endorsing a peace plan outlined by the Ukrainian president and rebuking Kiev for the shaky cease-fire.
As the violence drags on without a resolution in sight, Mr. Putin finds himself treading a narrow path between conflicting goals, according to government officials, analysts and diplomats.As the violence drags on without a resolution in sight, Mr. Putin finds himself treading a narrow path between conflicting goals, according to government officials, analysts and diplomats.
His main objective is to preserve as much Russian influence as possible over Ukraine’s future, championing the goal of the separatists for significant autonomy. That autonomy would keep the southeast closer in orbit to Moscow than to Kiev, rendering Ukraine’s central government weak.His main objective is to preserve as much Russian influence as possible over Ukraine’s future, championing the goal of the separatists for significant autonomy. That autonomy would keep the southeast closer in orbit to Moscow than to Kiev, rendering Ukraine’s central government weak.
But Mr. Putin must achieve that goal without getting Russia enmeshed in the politically fractured and economically backward briar patch of the breakaway regions. That would be expensive, not least because any hint of a military role or even a hand in the area’s destabilization could provoke far harsher Western sanctions.But Mr. Putin must achieve that goal without getting Russia enmeshed in the politically fractured and economically backward briar patch of the breakaway regions. That would be expensive, not least because any hint of a military role or even a hand in the area’s destabilization could provoke far harsher Western sanctions.
Such sanctions are expected to be the focus of sustained consultations during the coming week when NATO foreign ministers and European leaders meet separately in Brussels. Washington warned last week that tougher sanctions were under serious discussion because it said Moscow was supplying covert military aid, including tanks and artillery, to the rebels.Such sanctions are expected to be the focus of sustained consultations during the coming week when NATO foreign ministers and European leaders meet separately in Brussels. Washington warned last week that tougher sanctions were under serious discussion because it said Moscow was supplying covert military aid, including tanks and artillery, to the rebels.
Russia denies any such thing. “Mr. Putin says that the only viable solution will be through dialogue,” Dmitri S. Peskov, the president’s spokesman, said Sunday when asked to summarize Russia’s position.Russia denies any such thing. “Mr. Putin says that the only viable solution will be through dialogue,” Dmitri S. Peskov, the president’s spokesman, said Sunday when asked to summarize Russia’s position.
However, Mr. Putin is trying to satisfy several mutually antagonistic constituencies at once. Much of his domestic audience, fed for months on a diet of frenzied, Ukraine-in-flames reports on state-run television, endorses the need for a firm Russian hand.However, Mr. Putin is trying to satisfy several mutually antagonistic constituencies at once. Much of his domestic audience, fed for months on a diet of frenzied, Ukraine-in-flames reports on state-run television, endorses the need for a firm Russian hand.
The military and staunch nationalists, encouraged by Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in March, are considered the leading chorus for this approach. They hope the Ukraine crisis can serve as the catalyst for Russia to go it alone once again as a superpower — an idea with popular appeal.The military and staunch nationalists, encouraged by Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in March, are considered the leading chorus for this approach. They hope the Ukraine crisis can serve as the catalyst for Russia to go it alone once again as a superpower — an idea with popular appeal.
“Ukraine should be considered territory occupied by the United States except for Donbass,” Sergei Y. Glazyev, an economic adviser to Mr. Putin, said this month, using the shorthand for the region that includes the breakaway “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. “We should call on other regions to liberate themselves from this occupation.”“Ukraine should be considered territory occupied by the United States except for Donbass,” Sergei Y. Glazyev, an economic adviser to Mr. Putin, said this month, using the shorthand for the region that includes the breakaway “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. “We should call on other regions to liberate themselves from this occupation.”
But the more liberal constituency in Russia, including many business executives, economists and diplomats, want to avoid the rupture with the West that would surely follow a full embrace of the separatists.But the more liberal constituency in Russia, including many business executives, economists and diplomats, want to avoid the rupture with the West that would surely follow a full embrace of the separatists.
“A big country like Russia cannot be split from the rest of the world — it is not the 19th century,” Evgeny Gontmacher, a prominent economist, told participants in a recent seminar. “We will be barefoot and the inflation rate out of control.”“A big country like Russia cannot be split from the rest of the world — it is not the 19th century,” Evgeny Gontmacher, a prominent economist, told participants in a recent seminar. “We will be barefoot and the inflation rate out of control.”
Much of the West is not even waiting for stiffer sanctions to be put in place, he noted, but has already stopped investing in Russia and started blacklisting its institutions.Much of the West is not even waiting for stiffer sanctions to be put in place, he noted, but has already stopped investing in Russia and started blacklisting its institutions.
So the problem for Russia, and Mr. Putin in particular, is to balance those competing demands. (Officially, the Kremlin denies being swayed by the threat of sanctions.)So the problem for Russia, and Mr. Putin in particular, is to balance those competing demands. (Officially, the Kremlin denies being swayed by the threat of sanctions.)
“Putin has to show that he is a strong leader who stands up for the national interests,” said Aleksei V. Makarkin, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow. “On the other hand, he needs to send a message to the West that he is ready for a dialogue, to make it clear that he won’t escalate the situation, that there is no need to impose sanctions.”“Putin has to show that he is a strong leader who stands up for the national interests,” said Aleksei V. Makarkin, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow. “On the other hand, he needs to send a message to the West that he is ready for a dialogue, to make it clear that he won’t escalate the situation, that there is no need to impose sanctions.”
Mr. Putin exercised both tracks of his dual policy over the weekend. On Saturday, hours after shells from Ukraine crashed into a Russian border post, causing damage but no casualties, he put the military on alert and announced snap exercises involving some 65,000 soldiers.Mr. Putin exercised both tracks of his dual policy over the weekend. On Saturday, hours after shells from Ukraine crashed into a Russian border post, causing damage but no casualties, he put the military on alert and announced snap exercises involving some 65,000 soldiers.
But he also issued a statement on Saturday endorsing the peace plan, even calling on both sides to stop fighting. He repeated the gist of his remarks to reporters during a live television broadcast on Sunday.But he also issued a statement on Saturday endorsing the peace plan, even calling on both sides to stop fighting. He repeated the gist of his remarks to reporters during a live television broadcast on Sunday.
“It is important that this cease-fire open the way to a dialogue between all of the parties to the combat, so as to find solutions that will be acceptable to all sides,” Mr. Putin said.“It is important that this cease-fire open the way to a dialogue between all of the parties to the combat, so as to find solutions that will be acceptable to all sides,” Mr. Putin said.
But he also criticized the continuing Ukrainian military operations despite the unilateral cease-fire that the government in Kiev said it put into effect on Friday. “What is needed is for all military operations to stop,” he said. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry issued a statement accusing the pro-Russian separatists of fueling continued violence.But he also criticized the continuing Ukrainian military operations despite the unilateral cease-fire that the government in Kiev said it put into effect on Friday. “What is needed is for all military operations to stop,” he said. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry issued a statement accusing the pro-Russian separatists of fueling continued violence.
Of course, calling for dialogue and actually getting it started are two different matters. In a nationwide speech on Saturday laying out his peace plan, Petro O. Poroshenko, the new Ukrainian president, rejected negotiations with virtually all the separatist leaders. They in turn said they would not interact with Kiev.Of course, calling for dialogue and actually getting it started are two different matters. In a nationwide speech on Saturday laying out his peace plan, Petro O. Poroshenko, the new Ukrainian president, rejected negotiations with virtually all the separatist leaders. They in turn said they would not interact with Kiev.
Yevgeny N. Minchenko, a Moscow-based expert on Ukraine at the International Institute for Political Expertise, said the idea that negotiations could be held without the separatists was unrealistic. “If they want to solve the problem, they have to negotiate with the guys who control the situation,” he said.Yevgeny N. Minchenko, a Moscow-based expert on Ukraine at the International Institute for Political Expertise, said the idea that negotiations could be held without the separatists was unrealistic. “If they want to solve the problem, they have to negotiate with the guys who control the situation,” he said.
On Sunday, three past presidents of Ukraine — Leonid M. Kravchuk, Leonid D. Kuchma and Viktor A. Yushchenko — wrote an open letter to Mr. Putin asking him to do more to defuse the violence in Donbass and to withdraw Russian mercenaries. “Leave our country in peace!” they wrote.On Sunday, three past presidents of Ukraine — Leonid M. Kravchuk, Leonid D. Kuchma and Viktor A. Yushchenko — wrote an open letter to Mr. Putin asking him to do more to defuse the violence in Donbass and to withdraw Russian mercenaries. “Leave our country in peace!” they wrote.
Although Russian, Ukrainian and European officials have had some eight rounds of discussions on the peace plan, Moscow is keeping its official distance from the mechanics of carrying it out.Although Russian, Ukrainian and European officials have had some eight rounds of discussions on the peace plan, Moscow is keeping its official distance from the mechanics of carrying it out.
“How they are going to do it is their problem,” said Mr. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, putting the onus in particular on Mr. Poroshenko. “We cannot do it on their behalf, we are not part of their conflict. This is a domestic conflict in Ukraine.”“How they are going to do it is their problem,” said Mr. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, putting the onus in particular on Mr. Poroshenko. “We cannot do it on their behalf, we are not part of their conflict. This is a domestic conflict in Ukraine.”
But he acknowledged that there was a “huge deficit of trust,” citing the attacks by the Ukrainian military as the root cause.But he acknowledged that there was a “huge deficit of trust,” citing the attacks by the Ukrainian military as the root cause.
“Definitely they have to figure out some trust-building measures to show their intentions are really peaceful, and that it is not an issue of ultimatums,” Mr. Peskov said in a brief interview.“Definitely they have to figure out some trust-building measures to show their intentions are really peaceful, and that it is not an issue of ultimatums,” Mr. Peskov said in a brief interview.
Analysts are uncertain what might work on that front, and predict that the fighting could drag on. This is particularly true because with more people dying, both sides were less likely to heed outsiders, they said.Analysts are uncertain what might work on that front, and predict that the fighting could drag on. This is particularly true because with more people dying, both sides were less likely to heed outsiders, they said.
Already, Mr. Poroshenko’s supporters in central and western Ukraine endorse the idea, however unlikely, of wiping out the separatists, while in the southeast the fighting alienates more people from Kiev daily.Already, Mr. Poroshenko’s supporters in central and western Ukraine endorse the idea, however unlikely, of wiping out the separatists, while in the southeast the fighting alienates more people from Kiev daily.
Moscow has plenty of time to both call for peace and supply the rebels, some analysts said, until it gets a Ukraine it can still dominate. “Their medium-term goal is to keep it festering; the militants are their leverage,” said Cliff Kupchan, a Washington-based Russia analyst at the Eurasia Group. “I don’t think peace is at hand.”Moscow has plenty of time to both call for peace and supply the rebels, some analysts said, until it gets a Ukraine it can still dominate. “Their medium-term goal is to keep it festering; the militants are their leverage,” said Cliff Kupchan, a Washington-based Russia analyst at the Eurasia Group. “I don’t think peace is at hand.”