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| Louisiana senator Mary Landrieu faces bumpy ride on the Bayou | Louisiana senator Mary Landrieu faces bumpy ride on the Bayou |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Mary Landrieu, Louisiana’s three-term senator and one of America’s most formidable female politicians, leans back on her chair and surveys the glistening expanse of water that separates her state from Texas. | Mary Landrieu, Louisiana’s three-term senator and one of America’s most formidable female politicians, leans back on her chair and surveys the glistening expanse of water that separates her state from Texas. |
| She watches enviously as white boats sail across the Toledo Bend reservoir. She wants to be on the water too. "All I ever come here for is work,” she told the Guardian. “It is very sad. Next time. One of these days.” | She watches enviously as white boats sail across the Toledo Bend reservoir. She wants to be on the water too. "All I ever come here for is work,” she told the Guardian. “It is very sad. Next time. One of these days.” |
| If the polls are to be believed, Landrieu may not have to wait long for her political retirement. Her campaign for re-election in November’s midterms is shaping up to the toughest faced by incumbent Democratic senators, and one of just a handful of races that both sides believe will decide control of the Senate. | If the polls are to be believed, Landrieu may not have to wait long for her political retirement. Her campaign for re-election in November’s midterms is shaping up to the toughest faced by incumbent Democratic senators, and one of just a handful of races that both sides believe will decide control of the Senate. |
| She has won three times in a row, increasing her share of the vote each time. But Louisiana’s political terrain has shifted, rightwards, beneath Landrieu's feet during her almost two decades in office, rendering her the last remaining Democrat to hold statewide office here. | She has won three times in a row, increasing her share of the vote each time. But Louisiana’s political terrain has shifted, rightwards, beneath Landrieu's feet during her almost two decades in office, rendering her the last remaining Democrat to hold statewide office here. |
| If Landrieu loses in November, Louisiana, which has long viewed itself as standing apart from other southern states, will begin to resemble its solidly red neighbours on the Gulf coast: Texas, Alabama and Mississippi. | If Landrieu loses in November, Louisiana, which has long viewed itself as standing apart from other southern states, will begin to resemble its solidly red neighbours on the Gulf coast: Texas, Alabama and Mississippi. |
| Her main Republican opponent, Bill Cassidy, has a slight edge in the polls, and there is no shortage of political forecasters prepared to predict Landrieu's demise. | Her main Republican opponent, Bill Cassidy, has a slight edge in the polls, and there is no shortage of political forecasters prepared to predict Landrieu's demise. |
| But Landrieu, 58, is a political phenomenon who hails from a Louisiana dynasty. Her brother, Mitch, is the mayor of New Orleans, an office previously held by their father, Moon. Again and again, she has won in elections people expected her to lose, each time further burnishing her reputation as a dogged political fighter. She has won in a midterm election, won with both Democrats and Republicans in the White House. She has won outright by surpassing the 50% vote threshold demanded by Louisiana’s election rules, and won after being forced into a long, hard runoff. | But Landrieu, 58, is a political phenomenon who hails from a Louisiana dynasty. Her brother, Mitch, is the mayor of New Orleans, an office previously held by their father, Moon. Again and again, she has won in elections people expected her to lose, each time further burnishing her reputation as a dogged political fighter. She has won in a midterm election, won with both Democrats and Republicans in the White House. She has won outright by surpassing the 50% vote threshold demanded by Louisiana’s election rules, and won after being forced into a long, hard runoff. |
| Since she was first elected in 1996, Republicans have tried multiple strategies to unseat her, failing every time. | Since she was first elected in 1996, Republicans have tried multiple strategies to unseat her, failing every time. |
| In 2002, Republicans strategically fielded candidates across the state, in a plot to sap her support among different constituencies and force her into a runout.In 2008, Landrieu's first election after hurricane Katrina, which had prompted large numbers of Landrieu's African American supporters to leave the state, Republicans fielded just one candidate: John Kennedy, who happened to be a former Democrat. | In 2002, Republicans strategically fielded candidates across the state, in a plot to sap her support among different constituencies and force her into a runout.In 2008, Landrieu's first election after hurricane Katrina, which had prompted large numbers of Landrieu's African American supporters to leave the state, Republicans fielded just one candidate: John Kennedy, who happened to be a former Democrat. |
| “They have literally tried to beat me every way they can,” she said. “This is their last gasp.” She is unimpressed with Cassidy, the three-term congressman now grasping the anti-Landrieu mantle. “My opponent now has never run statewide. He is not well-known,” she said. “So that is a plus for me. But the minus for me is I’ve got a president that is not as popular as other presidents have been, and we’re with the same party.” | “They have literally tried to beat me every way they can,” she said. “This is their last gasp.” She is unimpressed with Cassidy, the three-term congressman now grasping the anti-Landrieu mantle. “My opponent now has never run statewide. He is not well-known,” she said. “So that is a plus for me. But the minus for me is I’ve got a president that is not as popular as other presidents have been, and we’re with the same party.” |
| The Landrieu coalition | The Landrieu coalition |
| It is rare for Democratic senators to be so explicit in their criticism of Barack Obama, but Landrieu makes no secret of her opposition to the president, particularly over energy policy. | It is rare for Democratic senators to be so explicit in their criticism of Barack Obama, but Landrieu makes no secret of her opposition to the president, particularly over energy policy. |
| Privately, sources close to Landrieu's campaign concede she is effectively running against Obama, whose low approval ratings and reputation for partisanship are a greater drag on her re-election prospects than Cassidy. | Privately, sources close to Landrieu's campaign concede she is effectively running against Obama, whose low approval ratings and reputation for partisanship are a greater drag on her re-election prospects than Cassidy. |
| The central tenet of Landrieu's campaign is her recent promotion to the chair of the Senate energy committee, a position of power from which, she claims, can reward her oil-rich state. | The central tenet of Landrieu's campaign is her recent promotion to the chair of the Senate energy committee, a position of power from which, she claims, can reward her oil-rich state. |
| Landrieu was in Toledo Bend last month to convey that point. Technically, it was was not a campaign event, but an off-site committee hearing on the future of a hydroelectric dam facility that has applied for a license renewal. | Landrieu was in Toledo Bend last month to convey that point. Technically, it was was not a campaign event, but an off-site committee hearing on the future of a hydroelectric dam facility that has applied for a license renewal. |
| But the electioneering was plain to see. Landrieu made it clear to those gathered at the meeting, on a golf course on banks of the reservoir, that the federal energy regulatory commission, which grants licenses to dams, and which now falls under her purview as committee chairman, would grant the maximum 50-year license or face her wrath. | But the electioneering was plain to see. Landrieu made it clear to those gathered at the meeting, on a golf course on banks of the reservoir, that the federal energy regulatory commission, which grants licenses to dams, and which now falls under her purview as committee chairman, would grant the maximum 50-year license or face her wrath. |
| “It is a gavel we don’t often get,” she aid of her control of the committee. “I’ve got it now. It is really important for me to wield it on behalf of communities like these.” The event near the town of Many, in Sabine Parish, was deep in Republican territory – Mitt Romney soaked up 77% of the vote there in the 2012 presidential election. | “It is a gavel we don’t often get,” she aid of her control of the committee. “I’ve got it now. It is really important for me to wield it on behalf of communities like these.” The event near the town of Many, in Sabine Parish, was deep in Republican territory – Mitt Romney soaked up 77% of the vote there in the 2012 presidential election. |
| Louisiana's political map can be roughly split three ways. New Orleans, which has a large, mixed population, and dances to its own tune, is Landrieu's home territory. | Louisiana's political map can be roughly split three ways. New Orleans, which has a large, mixed population, and dances to its own tune, is Landrieu's home territory. |
| The rest of so-called Cajun country – the stretch of swampy, coastal bayou along the south, which also includes the capital, Baton Rouge, and has large numbers of Catholic voters – is more difficult to parse, with areas evenly split between the parties. | The rest of so-called Cajun country – the stretch of swampy, coastal bayou along the south, which also includes the capital, Baton Rouge, and has large numbers of Catholic voters – is more difficult to parse, with areas evenly split between the parties. |
| Finally, the central and northern parts of the state including parishes like Sabine are, with a few exceptions, largely rural, Protestant and white, and lean Republican. | Finally, the central and northern parts of the state including parishes like Sabine are, with a few exceptions, largely rural, Protestant and white, and lean Republican. |
| Adam Sullivan, Landrieu's well-regarded campaign manager, said she will need do well in each of those areas to triumph, and cannot merely rely on activating a Democratic base, a strategy employed by the party elsewhere. “It is not a natural coalition,” he said. “It is a Landrieu coalition.” | |
| He is directing a campaign with a strong, local focus, emphasising Landrieu’s commitment to touchstone issues that transcend party politics, such as securing federal support to lower flood insurance rates, tackle coastal erosion and share the proceeds of oil from the Gulf of Mexico. | He is directing a campaign with a strong, local focus, emphasising Landrieu’s commitment to touchstone issues that transcend party politics, such as securing federal support to lower flood insurance rates, tackle coastal erosion and share the proceeds of oil from the Gulf of Mexico. |
| In Toledo Bend, a Republican state senator, Gerald Long, who happens to be a close friend of Cassidy's, surprised the senator's campaign aides by pouring praise on her rise to energy chair. “I want to publicly say how appreciative I am that senator Landrieu has brought government to the people,” Long said, imploring the room to give her a round of applause. | In Toledo Bend, a Republican state senator, Gerald Long, who happens to be a close friend of Cassidy's, surprised the senator's campaign aides by pouring praise on her rise to energy chair. “I want to publicly say how appreciative I am that senator Landrieu has brought government to the people,” Long said, imploring the room to give her a round of applause. |
| That moment made the Toledo Bend event an unusually easy ride for Landrieu. Plugging a license of a hydro-electric damn was also an easy win for Landrieu. As she well knows, renewable energy is vastly overshadowed by the oil and gas boom in Louisiana. | That moment made the Toledo Bend event an unusually easy ride for Landrieu. Plugging a license of a hydro-electric damn was also an easy win for Landrieu. As she well knows, renewable energy is vastly overshadowed by the oil and gas boom in Louisiana. |
| Landrieu, a cheerleader for the fossil fuels industry, has outpaced Cassidy in the fundraising race, with contributions from major energy corporations. She is an unapologetic enthusiast for shale gas and offshore drilling, and responded angrily to the Obama administration’s momentous decision earlier this month to impose carbon emission cuts on coal-fired power stations to help arrest climate change. | Landrieu, a cheerleader for the fossil fuels industry, has outpaced Cassidy in the fundraising race, with contributions from major energy corporations. She is an unapologetic enthusiast for shale gas and offshore drilling, and responded angrily to the Obama administration’s momentous decision earlier this month to impose carbon emission cuts on coal-fired power stations to help arrest climate change. |
| But it is the contest over approval of the Keystone XL pipeline where Landrieu, as head of the energy committee, is positioning herself as the fiercest critic of her own administration. | But it is the contest over approval of the Keystone XL pipeline where Landrieu, as head of the energy committee, is positioning herself as the fiercest critic of her own administration. |
| The Obama administration has repeatedly postponed a decision over whether to approve an extension of the pipeline that would allow crude oil to be transported from the vast tar sands of Alberta, Canada, to oil refineries on the Gulf coast of Texas. | The Obama administration has repeatedly postponed a decision over whether to approve an extension of the pipeline that would allow crude oil to be transported from the vast tar sands of Alberta, Canada, to oil refineries on the Gulf coast of Texas. |
| Privately, environmentalists and energy lobbyists alike concede the battle over Keystone is a red herring. It is a routine pipeline – there are already 2.3m miles of oil and gas pipeline that criss-cross – and in the wider scheme, not hugely consequential. | Privately, environmentalists and energy lobbyists alike concede the battle over Keystone is a red herring. It is a routine pipeline – there are already 2.3m miles of oil and gas pipeline that criss-cross – and in the wider scheme, not hugely consequential. |
| But the fight of Keystone has become a hugely proxy battle between environmentalists and the energy lobby, and nowhere is the symbolism more potent that Louisiana. | But the fight of Keystone has become a hugely proxy battle between environmentalists and the energy lobby, and nowhere is the symbolism more potent that Louisiana. |
| The pipeline will not not pass through Louisiana and it is unlikely the state’s refineries will receive its oil without expensive modifications. But Landrieu has made her efforts to get the pipeline approved a cornerstone of her campaign. She tried and failed to get a bill authorising Keystone onto the Senate floor last month, and last week ensured the bill passed out of her committee – a move Cassidy's dismissed as a pointless "show vote". | The pipeline will not not pass through Louisiana and it is unlikely the state’s refineries will receive its oil without expensive modifications. But Landrieu has made her efforts to get the pipeline approved a cornerstone of her campaign. She tried and failed to get a bill authorising Keystone onto the Senate floor last month, and last week ensured the bill passed out of her committee – a move Cassidy's dismissed as a pointless "show vote". |
| Given reluctance on the part of the Democratic leadership in the Senate to put the bill to a wider vote, it is unlikely to be passed before November. The notion that – for all Landrieu's bluster – a Republican-controlled Senate would be better for Louisiana's energy interests than an upper chamber in Democratic hands is difficult for her campaign to counter. | Given reluctance on the part of the Democratic leadership in the Senate to put the bill to a wider vote, it is unlikely to be passed before November. The notion that – for all Landrieu's bluster – a Republican-controlled Senate would be better for Louisiana's energy interests than an upper chamber in Democratic hands is difficult for her campaign to counter. |
| Landrieu's response has been to walk a tightrope, extolling the virtues of her newfound influence in Washington, but cautioning that it might not be enough to overcome her Democratic colleagues, not least Obama. | Landrieu's response has been to walk a tightrope, extolling the virtues of her newfound influence in Washington, but cautioning that it might not be enough to overcome her Democratic colleagues, not least Obama. |
| Speaking shortly after her bold promise to Toledo Bend residents that the energy committee gavel will be waved in their interests, for example, the senator told the Guardian that, on issues such as Keystone, her influence should not be exaggerated. | Speaking shortly after her bold promise to Toledo Bend residents that the energy committee gavel will be waved in their interests, for example, the senator told the Guardian that, on issues such as Keystone, her influence should not be exaggerated. |
| “There are no fairy godmothers up here,” she said. “I don’t have a magic wand – that is not the power you get from the gavel. What you get is the power to call hearings, continue to raise the issue – and press the president to do the right thing.” | “There are no fairy godmothers up here,” she said. “I don’t have a magic wand – that is not the power you get from the gavel. What you get is the power to call hearings, continue to raise the issue – and press the president to do the right thing.” |
| 'It's not personal' | 'It's not personal' |
| Unsurprisingly, Cassidy is working hard to cast Louisiana's election as a referendum on Democratic control of the Senate. “There is one party that believes in oil gas jobs, and another party that is hostile toward oil and gas jobs,” he told the Guardian in Baton Rouge, over a lunch of shrimp and fried alligator. | Unsurprisingly, Cassidy is working hard to cast Louisiana's election as a referendum on Democratic control of the Senate. “There is one party that believes in oil gas jobs, and another party that is hostile toward oil and gas jobs,” he told the Guardian in Baton Rouge, over a lunch of shrimp and fried alligator. |
| Cassidy then utters two short sentences – repeated throughout the interview –- that distill his campaign strategy. “It is not personal,” he said, referring to Landrieu. “It is about our country.” He added: “The issues in this election are huge. Some people are staying with senator Landrieu basically on a personal relationship. What I would argue: this is our country involved.” | Cassidy then utters two short sentences – repeated throughout the interview –- that distill his campaign strategy. “It is not personal,” he said, referring to Landrieu. “It is about our country.” He added: “The issues in this election are huge. Some people are staying with senator Landrieu basically on a personal relationship. What I would argue: this is our country involved.” |
| While focusing on many of the same local issues as Landrieu, the Cassidy campaign is not opposed to seeing the race turn into a referendum on Democrats in Washington, as they seek a route to victory through Louisiana's quirky primary system. | While focusing on many of the same local issues as Landrieu, the Cassidy campaign is not opposed to seeing the race turn into a referendum on Democrats in Washington, as they seek a route to victory through Louisiana's quirky primary system. |
| Unlike other states electing senators this cycle, Louisiana’s election rules place all candidates – Democratic, Republican and others – on the same ballot on 4 November. There could be as many as three other Republican candidates contesting the race alongside Cassidy, including the Tea Party-backed retired air force colonel Rob Maness, who could diminish his first-round vote. | Unlike other states electing senators this cycle, Louisiana’s election rules place all candidates – Democratic, Republican and others – on the same ballot on 4 November. There could be as many as three other Republican candidates contesting the race alongside Cassidy, including the Tea Party-backed retired air force colonel Rob Maness, who could diminish his first-round vote. |
| If no single candidate achieves more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff between the top two – almost certainly Landrieu and Cassidy – the following month, on 6 December. | If no single candidate achieves more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff between the top two – almost certainly Landrieu and Cassidy – the following month, on 6 December. |
| Cassidy, 56, a physician, comes across as an awkward, albeit well-meaning politician. His furrowed brow makes him look permanently agitated, and in person he struggles with eye contact, staring into the middle distance when he speaks. | Cassidy, 56, a physician, comes across as an awkward, albeit well-meaning politician. His furrowed brow makes him look permanently agitated, and in person he struggles with eye contact, staring into the middle distance when he speaks. |
| He lacks Landrieu’s charisma or name recognition. During the hour-long lunch at Chimes, a popular, bustling restaurant in his district, not a single customer approached the table to say hello or shake Cassidy’s hand. | He lacks Landrieu’s charisma or name recognition. During the hour-long lunch at Chimes, a popular, bustling restaurant in his district, not a single customer approached the table to say hello or shake Cassidy’s hand. |
| That seems odd, given Cassidy's impressive record of public service to his community. Prior to entering politics he dedicated two decades to caring for impoverished Baton Rouge residents near the bottom of the ladder. He founded a clinic to give care to the working uninsured, and a public-private initiative to vaccinate 36,000 children against Hepatitis B. | That seems odd, given Cassidy's impressive record of public service to his community. Prior to entering politics he dedicated two decades to caring for impoverished Baton Rouge residents near the bottom of the ladder. He founded a clinic to give care to the working uninsured, and a public-private initiative to vaccinate 36,000 children against Hepatitis B. |
| He is by no means a fire-breathing conservative, either. His voting record in the House of Representatives is that of a rank-and-file Republican, loyal to his leadership. Like many Republicans, he denies the occurrence of man-made climate change, but also quotes knowledgeably from the latest scientific studies and believes that, combined with coastal subsidence, rising sea-levels constitute “Louisiana’s existential threat”. | He is by no means a fire-breathing conservative, either. His voting record in the House of Representatives is that of a rank-and-file Republican, loyal to his leadership. Like many Republicans, he denies the occurrence of man-made climate change, but also quotes knowledgeably from the latest scientific studies and believes that, combined with coastal subsidence, rising sea-levels constitute “Louisiana’s existential threat”. |
| He repeatedly argues that Landrieu's impact on the energy industry is overstated. And campaign aides point out that Blanche Lincoln, the former Democratic senator from Arkansas, lost her seat in 2010, despite being promoted to the chair of the agriculture committee, which is critical to her state. | He repeatedly argues that Landrieu's impact on the energy industry is overstated. And campaign aides point out that Blanche Lincoln, the former Democratic senator from Arkansas, lost her seat in 2010, despite being promoted to the chair of the agriculture committee, which is critical to her state. |
| Yet Cassidy's opening salvo in his campaign – a TV ad released earlier this month – was not about energy policy but Obama’s healthcare law. The non-profit run by the billionaire conservative donors, the Koch Brothers, have for months been paying for TV spots in Louisiana that hammer Landrieu over Obamacare. | Yet Cassidy's opening salvo in his campaign – a TV ad released earlier this month – was not about energy policy but Obama’s healthcare law. The non-profit run by the billionaire conservative donors, the Koch Brothers, have for months been paying for TV spots in Louisiana that hammer Landrieu over Obamacare. |
| Landrieu voted for Obamacare in crucial Senate votes. Cassidy opposed the law and is among the dwindling numbers of Republicans still proposing to fully repeal it. | Landrieu voted for Obamacare in crucial Senate votes. Cassidy opposed the law and is among the dwindling numbers of Republicans still proposing to fully repeal it. |
| For their part, Landrieu's campaign do not believe the Louisiana race will be won or lost over a healthcare law passed five years ago. “Just saying over and over again that the world is coming to an end because of Obamacare, and this race is about Obamacare, doesn’t make it true,” the senator said. | For their part, Landrieu's campaign do not believe the Louisiana race will be won or lost over a healthcare law passed five years ago. “Just saying over and over again that the world is coming to an end because of Obamacare, and this race is about Obamacare, doesn’t make it true,” the senator said. |
| But even winning on her home turf – energy policy – is proving difficult, as the Keystone debate proves. “Mary is good for us, and she’s one of the best Democrats who could chair the committee,” said a top energy executive in Louisiana, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “But the best outcome for us, by far, is a Republican-controlled Senate.” | But even winning on her home turf – energy policy – is proving difficult, as the Keystone debate proves. “Mary is good for us, and she’s one of the best Democrats who could chair the committee,” said a top energy executive in Louisiana, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “But the best outcome for us, by far, is a Republican-controlled Senate.” |
| Another senior figure from the industry who did go on the record was Don Briggs, the president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association. He was glowing about Landrieu, even though he is funding her opponent. | Another senior figure from the industry who did go on the record was Don Briggs, the president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association. He was glowing about Landrieu, even though he is funding her opponent. |
| “Mary is embedded in the energy industry, she’s part of it,” Briggs said. “She’s a workaholic, a master of going after what she wants. Her heart and soul is in Louisiana.” | “Mary is embedded in the energy industry, she’s part of it,” Briggs said. “She’s a workaholic, a master of going after what she wants. Her heart and soul is in Louisiana.” |
| Oil men like Briggs have been kingmakers in Louisianan for decades, and the location of his office speaks volumes about the influence they maintain. The other side of his fence is the Louisiana governor’s mansion. In the opposition direction, rising into the sky, are the chimney stacks of the fourth largest oil refinery in the US, run by Exxon Mobil. You can smell the fumes from his veranda. | Oil men like Briggs have been kingmakers in Louisianan for decades, and the location of his office speaks volumes about the influence they maintain. The other side of his fence is the Louisiana governor’s mansion. In the opposition direction, rising into the sky, are the chimney stacks of the fourth largest oil refinery in the US, run by Exxon Mobil. You can smell the fumes from his veranda. |
| Briggs supported Landrieu when she ran for Senate in 1996, and did so again, in 2002 and 2008. But this time he is switching sides, out of frustration with the Obama administration. | Briggs supported Landrieu when she ran for Senate in 1996, and did so again, in 2002 and 2008. But this time he is switching sides, out of frustration with the Obama administration. |
| “It wasn’t an easy decision on my part,” he said, reclining on his leather chair, a pained look on his face. “This isn’t about Mary. This is about the bigger picture.” | “It wasn’t an easy decision on my part,” he said, reclining on his leather chair, a pained look on his face. “This isn’t about Mary. This is about the bigger picture.” |