UK public 'should be primed to expect more infrastructure failures'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/26/uk-public-transport-threatened-climate-change

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Britons should not expect key services to work constantly in future, engineers have warned, as the nation's infrastructure struggles to cope with the increasing number of extreme weather events.

The Institution of Civil Engineers said immediate attention and significant investment is required to maintain energy networks, flood defences and waste systems. It said local transport is substandard and particularly at risk, and that the "unsexy" business of maintenance risked being neglected in favour of new projects.

In its State of the Nation: Infrastructure 2014 report, the ICE said climate change would make it increasingly difficult to run transport and power networks fully in all weather conditions, and the public should be primed to expect more failures.

The report, based on hundreds of interviews and submissions from leading professionals in industry and government, said the resilience of infrastructure was a major concern. The engineers pointed to the narrowing gap between energy supply and demand, vulnerability to flooding and a decline in the maintenance of local roads and flood defences after cuts.

The ICE said an awareness of the potential for multiple failures when one part of the system goes down, should be a key criterion when prioritising infrastructure projects. But it added that the public would need to lower its expectations of what services could be delivered in all conditions.

ICE vice-president Keith Clarke said: "There are going to be more frequent and more extreme weather events and we will be closing our infrastructure more often. We need to make clear to the public that availability will be subject to weather."

He said last winter's floods showed there could be a domino effect when defences broke down, hitting transport, energy, water and waste networks. "We must all recognise that our infrastructure cannot be resilient to everything. It will become more difficult to run all services in all conditions; it will also not be cost-effective. Funding will always be constrained as there are only two sources – tax and user charging – both ultimately falling on the consumer. Clearly there are some difficult decisions ahead … what networks can and should operate 24/7 in what conditions."

At the launch of the report, politicians warned that at least one major strategic transport infrastructure project – a new airport runway in the south-east – was likely to be further deferred. Lord Adonis, shadow minister of state for infrastructure, said business and aviation should be wary of pinning hopes on the Airports Commission led by Howard Davies, which will deliver its verdict after the next election: "Anything Davies recommends is going to be hugely controversial."

He said opponents would argue, particularly if a third Heathrow runway was selected, that the decision was "illegitimate" as parties did not make their preferences clear before the general election.

The Davies commission was seen by many as a device for the coalition to kick a toxic political question into the long grass. But, Adonis said, the delays could carry on after the report is published: "The easiest thing in the world would be for whoever is in government in a year's time to find [another] good piece of long grass, [like] the need for further development work and consultation. We could easily lose another parliament."

Lord Heseltine, who last year published a growth plan for the coalition, said he would expect a Conservative government to act on Davies's recommendations if it won in 2015. But, he said: "The chances of getting consensus on this issue is very limited and that won't go away after the election."