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Erdogan, Survivor of Protests and Inquiries, to Seek Presidency in Turkey
Erdogan, Survivor of Protests and Inquiries, to Seek Presidency in Turkey
(about 7 hours later)
ISTANBUL — Having withstood the challenges to his rule from angry street protests and a corruption inquiry, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday announced that he will run for Turkey’s presidency in elections next month, a move that is likely to position him as the country’s dominant political figure for years to come.
ISTANBUL — Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday announced that he will run for Turkey’s presidency in elections next month, a move that is likely to position him as the country’s dominant political figure for years to come.
In power now for more than a decade and already considered to be the most consequential political leader here since modern Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, capturing the presidency could allow Mr. Erdogan, 60, eventually to surpass even Ataturk’s legacy.
Mr. Erdogan has held power for more than a decade, having withstood the challenges to his rule from angry street protests and from a corruption inquiry. He is already considered the most consequential political leader here since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey. Capturing the presidency may allow Mr. Erdogan, 60, eventually to surpass even Ataturk’s legacy.
That could come at the cost of deepening the divisions in Turkey between the religious masses that Mr. Erdogan represents and an increasingly angry, but divided, opposition composed of liberals, nationalists and urban Turks, that wants nothing more than for Mr. Erdogan to exit the political stage.
But it could come at the cost of deepening the divisions in Turkey between the masses of religious Turkish Muslims, whom Mr. Erdogan represents, and an increasingly angry but divided opposition, composed of liberals, nationalists and urban Turks who want nothing more than for Mr. Erdogan to exit the political stage.
In his speech on Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan cast his campaign for the presidency as the final victory over the old Turkish political order, dominated by the secular military and oppressive to the faithful like himself.
In contrast with the post of prime minister’s post, the presidency of Turkey has until now been largely, though not entirely, a ceremonial post. But if Mr. Erdogan wins — as analysts widely expect — it is likely to become vastly more powerful. It will also have a greater popular mandate than before: in August, for the first time, the president will be chosen directly by Turkish voters, rather than by the Parliament.
“If elected, I will be everyone’s president,” he said. “It will be a different type of presidency.”
Mr. Erdogan would be likely to maximize the office’s existing powers, especially if he can maintain his hold on his party and orchestrate the appointment of a compliant prime minister. The president appoints judges and university rectors and can veto laws passed by Parliament.
The presidential announcement was not a surprise — officials from Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., had signaled for weeks that he was likely to be their choice — but it was a splashy affair in front of thousands of party members and government officials in Ankara, the Turkish capital, and took on all the trappings of a highly choreographed coronation.
Mr. Erdogan has also sought to change the Turkish Constitution to create a government dominated by the presidency. So far he has not been able to muster the necessary support, but many expect him to try again. And his advisers are already laying the groundwork for a much more powerful presidency under Mr. Erdogan.
Before taking the stage Mr. Erdogan sat in the front row, next to his headscarfed and weeping wife, as a documentary of his life played on a big screen; the scenes of his hardscrabble youth and his rise in politics as an Islamist painting a portrait of the dominant theme of his career: the triumph of an underclass of religious conservatives over a secular elite that once dominated Turkish politics.
“If Erdogan is elected, Turkey will have a strong president without a formal presidential system,” Ibrahim Kalin, a top adviser to Mr. Erdogan, wrote in a newspaper column on Tuesday. “The current Constitution does not allow for a full-blown presidential system. But the powers of the president make it a hybrid system. This needs to be understood properly.”
If Mr. Erdogan wins — as analysts widely expect — then the Turkish presidency, which is largely, but not entirely, ceremonial, is likely to become a vastly more powerful position.
His nomination was not a surprise. Officials from Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., signaled for weeks that he was likely to be their nominee. Still, it was a splashy affair conducted in front of thousands of party members and government officials in Ankara, the Turkish capital, and it took on the choreographed trappings of a coronation.
For the first time, the post will be decided by popular vote in elections in August, rather than being selected by Parliament, giving the position a democratic legitimacy and an electoral mandate.
It left unanswered the question of the political future of Turkey’s current president, Abdullah Gul, another Islamist who worked with Mr. Erdogan to found the A.K.P. more than a decade ago. Mr. Gul has been seen as a more conciliatory figure than Mr. Erdogan; after his term ends, he could emerge as a candidate for prime minister in the general election next year.
Through the sheer force of his personality and popular support, Mr. Erdogan is also likely to maximize the powers of the office, especially if he can maintain his hold on the party and orchestrate the appointment of a compliant prime minister.
Still, most analysts say that if Mr. Erdogan is president, it will matter little who is prime minister.
Mr. Erdogan has sought to change the Turkish Constitution and create a presidential system, but he has never been able to muster the support to do so. While many expect him to try again, his advisers are already setting the groundwork for a much more powerful presidency under Mr. Erdogan.
“It doesn’t really matter whether Erdogan is the prime minister or president,” said Svante E. Cornell, a Turkey analyst and research director at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, a research organization. “He has created an ‘Erdogan system,’ where power is personalized in his own hands, enabling him to tailor-make the composition of the government to ensure he has the exact kind of influence that he wants.”
The position does have some actual powers, they note, such as approving or vetoing laws, appointing university rectors and making judicial appointments.
Mr. Erdogan’s presidential ambitions, along with the criticism that he has become increasingly authoritarian by securing more control over the judiciary and the media, have evoked comparisons to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the pre-eminent political figure in his country for nearly 15 years, switching back and forth between the posts of president and prime minister.
“If Erdogan is elected, Turkey will have a strong president without a formal presidential system,” Ibrahim Kalin, a top adviser to Mr. Erdogan, wrote in a newspaper column on Tuesday. “The current constitution does not allow for a full-blown presidential system. But the powers of the president make it a hybrid system. This needs to be understood properly.”
“Right now, Erdogan is going down a Putinistic route of polarization to consolidate the vote behind him,” said Sinan Ulgen, a Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Brussels.
An open question, for now, is the political future of Turkey’s current president, Abdullah Gul, another Islamist who founded, with Mr. Erdogan, the A.K.P. more than a decade ago. Mr. Gul has been seen as a more conciliatory figure than Mr. Erdogan and, after stepping aside from the presidency later this year, could emerge as a candidate for prime minister in the elections next year.
In his accepting his party’s nomination on Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan cast his campaign for the presidency as the final victory over the old Turkish political order, dominated by the secular military and oppressive to the faithful like himself.
Even so, most analysts say that if Mr. Erdogan wins the presidency, it will matter little who is prime minister.
“If elected, I will be everyone’s president,” he said. “It will be a different type of presidency.” Rather than stick to diplomatic functions, he promised to be a president who “sweats, runs around and works hard.”
“It doesn’t really matter whether Erdogan is the prime minister or president because he has created an ‘Erdogan system,’ where power is personalized in his own hands, enabling him to tailor-make the composition of the government to ensure he has the exact kind of influence that he wants,” said Svante E. Cornell, a Turkey analyst and research director at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, a research organization.
Before taking the stage, Mr. Erdogan sat in the front row of the audience next to his headscarfed and weeping wife, as a documentary about his life played on a big screen. The scenes of his impoverished youth and his rise in Islamist politics illustrated the dominant theme of his career: the triumph of an underclass of religious conservatives over a secular elite.
In the campaign, Mr. Erdogan will face two candidates whom analysts give little chance of victory. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, a 70-year-old former diplomat who once headed the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, has been put forward as a joint candidate by the main secular and nationalist parties, while Selahattin Demirtas will run as the candidate for one of the pro-Kurdish parties.
Mr. Erdogan, who has served three terms as prime minister, is prevented from seeking a fourth by the internal rules of his party. In his time in power, he has been credited with presiding over a growing economy and with advancing the interests of Turks who felt oppressed under the old political order, especially religious conservatives and Kurds. The dominant role of the military ended through a series of trials that are now being reconsidered by the Turkish judicial authorities.
Mr. Erdogan has already said that he will not be an ordinary Turkish president, presiding over state visits and diplomatic functions, nor will he quietly enter semiretirement in the presidential palace. He has promised to be a president who, “sweats, runs around and works hard.”
But over the last year, he has faced numerous challenges to his rule, and his international standing as a leader who embodied the possibilities of both Islam and democracy has diminished. He and his inner circle have also been caught up in a corruption investigation that he calls a politically motivated smear campaign by supporters of the Turkish Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, whose followers have, over the years, become entrenched in the judiciary and police.
Mr. Erdogan’s presidential ambitions, along with the criticism that he has become increasingly authoritarian by securing more control over the judiciary and the media, have evoked comparisons to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has been the pre-eminent political figure in his country for nearly 15 years as president and prime minister.
If he is elected president next month, Mr. Erdogan will have earned a five-year term, but he is not likely to stop there. He has made no secret of his ambition to be the country’s leader in 2023, the 100th anniversary of the modern Turkish republic, built by Ataturk out of the rubble of the Ottoman Empire after World War I.
“Right now, Erdogan is going down a Putinistic route of polarization to consolidate the vote behind him,” said Sinan Ulgen, a Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank, in Brussels.
Analysts say his opponents in the election — Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, a 70-year-old former diplomat nominated by the main secular and nationalist parties, and Selahattin Demirtas, the candidate of a pro-Kurdish party — have little chance of winning.
As Mr. Erdogan accepted the nomination Tuesday, to the backdrop of a song about him, Jonathan Schanzer, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a research organization based in Washington, D.C., wrote on Twitter, “Vladimir Erdogan. Recep Tayyip Putin. Which one has a nicer ring to it?”
Mr. Erdogan has won three terms as prime minister, and is prevented from running again for that post not by a term limits law but by the internal rules of his party. In his time in power, he has been credited with presiding over a growing economy and with advancing democratic rights for those who were oppressed under the old political order, especially religious conservatives and Kurds.
Through a series of controversial trials that are now being reconsidered by the Turkish judicial authorities, the dominance of Turkey’s military over politics was ended under Mr. Erdogan’s tenure.
But over the last year, the challenges to his rule have been numerous, and his international standing as a leader who embodied the possibilities of Islam and democracy coexisting has been diminished.
Last summer, violent street demonstrations in Istanbul were sparked by government plans to raze a park in the city center and convert it into a shopping mall. Then the police cracked down harshly, provoking protests around the country that evolved into a broader rebuke of Mr. Erdogan’s policies and style of governance.
At the end of last year, a corruption investigation targeting him and his inner circle became public. Mr. Erdogan cast the inquiry as a politically motivated smear campaign orchestrated by supporters of the Turkish Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, whose followers have, over the years, become entrenched in the judiciary and police.
The government has purged the state of thousands of police officers and hundreds of prosecutors, but the controversy has persisted through leaks on social media of recordings — despite the government, for a time, shutting down Twitter and YouTube — that purported to show Mr. Erdogan and others accepting bribes.
Turkey’s fast-growing economy has faltered as foreign investors have pulled money from emerging markets. And Turkey’s attempts to shape events in the Middle East have also faced sharp criticism for their unforeseen consequences. Early in the uprising in Syria, for instance, Turkey aggressively supported the rebels seeking to oust the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, a policy that has now generated criticism for fostering the growth of extremist groups, such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
While tarnishing Mr. Erdogan’s image abroad, the corruption affair has seemed to have little effect on his political standing domestically. Mr. Erdogan’s party resoundingly won a round of local elections in March.
If he wins the presidential election next month, Mr. Erdogan will have earned a five-year term, but he is not likely to stop there. He has made no secret of his ambition to be the country’s leader in 2023, the 100th anniversary of the modern Turkish republic, built by Ataturk out of the rubble of the Ottoman Empire after World War I.
