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Ed Miliband may not be everyone's idea of a leader, but that may not stop him Don't fall for the Ed Miliband groupthink – he'll probably be our PM
(35 minutes later)
What do leaders look like? Perhaps they look like Harrison Ford in the movie Air Force One, shouting "Get off my plane!" to a terrorist.Maybe it is Margaret Thatcher at the despatch box declaring: "No, no, no!"What do leaders look like? Perhaps they look like Harrison Ford in the movie Air Force One, shouting "Get off my plane!" to a terrorist.Maybe it is Margaret Thatcher at the despatch box declaring: "No, no, no!"
Quite a lot of lobby journalists and commentators look at Ed Miliband and think: well, he's not like any leader I have ever seen. People who get on in their world – the people they work for – can be pretty abrasive. Journalism gets done in a hurry for busy people who don't always have time to explore subtleties and nuance. What's the headline? Is this good news or bad news? These are the terms of the trade.Quite a lot of lobby journalists and commentators look at Ed Miliband and think: well, he's not like any leader I have ever seen. People who get on in their world – the people they work for – can be pretty abrasive. Journalism gets done in a hurry for busy people who don't always have time to explore subtleties and nuance. What's the headline? Is this good news or bad news? These are the terms of the trade.
For some it is almost axiomatic that a leader with Miliband's temperament and personality – measured, understated – is not going to be the sort of person who will come out on top. That is not how Tony Blair did it, nor David Cameron, nor Thatcher. The leadership template, in Westminster at least, seems to involve making simple, linear statements. Accuracy is a secondary consideration. The main thing is to sound confident, certain, and unflinching, regardless of what it is that you are actually saying.For some it is almost axiomatic that a leader with Miliband's temperament and personality – measured, understated – is not going to be the sort of person who will come out on top. That is not how Tony Blair did it, nor David Cameron, nor Thatcher. The leadership template, in Westminster at least, seems to involve making simple, linear statements. Accuracy is a secondary consideration. The main thing is to sound confident, certain, and unflinching, regardless of what it is that you are actually saying.
There is a second major factor that is influencing the collective view on the Labour leader: the persistent and quite widely held belief that he wasn't supposed to win the leadership in the first place. It was his older brother who fitted more neatly into the orthodox leadership template. He ticked more of the boxes that many observers like to see being ticked.There is a second major factor that is influencing the collective view on the Labour leader: the persistent and quite widely held belief that he wasn't supposed to win the leadership in the first place. It was his older brother who fitted more neatly into the orthodox leadership template. He ticked more of the boxes that many observers like to see being ticked.
And though the Labour leadership contest was settled, narrowly but decisively, almost four years ago, there has been something of a cognitive lag between the reading out of the result in September 2010 and the views of many today. A few people still seem to be struggling to take it all in.And though the Labour leadership contest was settled, narrowly but decisively, almost four years ago, there has been something of a cognitive lag between the reading out of the result in September 2010 and the views of many today. A few people still seem to be struggling to take it all in.
If you start from the position of "the wrong guy won", it is intellectually quite hard to imagine a scenario in which this supposed "wrong guy" wins in the future. The thought process has been framed and constrained before you get very far. Prejudices are confirmed. Ed cannot win because, well, he shouldn't have won in the first place.If you start from the position of "the wrong guy won", it is intellectually quite hard to imagine a scenario in which this supposed "wrong guy" wins in the future. The thought process has been framed and constrained before you get very far. Prejudices are confirmed. Ed cannot win because, well, he shouldn't have won in the first place.
This cognitive block has helped to create quite an interesting phenomenon: an outbreak of groupthink. This is a concept, popularised by the American psychologist Irving Janis, to describe what some have called "rationalised conformity" – a process in which alternatives to a shared "conventional wisdom" are almost systematically rejected.This cognitive block has helped to create quite an interesting phenomenon: an outbreak of groupthink. This is a concept, popularised by the American psychologist Irving Janis, to describe what some have called "rationalised conformity" – a process in which alternatives to a shared "conventional wisdom" are almost systematically rejected.
Today's groupthink holds that Ed Cannot Win. Thus opinion polls that point to a possible Labour victory tend to be downplayed, rejected or simply ignored as not fitting in with the overall scenario that most observers take as a given. But a stray, outlying poll that supports the idea of Labour struggling is trumpeted. We have seen another example of this in the past two days.Today's groupthink holds that Ed Cannot Win. Thus opinion polls that point to a possible Labour victory tend to be downplayed, rejected or simply ignored as not fitting in with the overall scenario that most observers take as a given. But a stray, outlying poll that supports the idea of Labour struggling is trumpeted. We have seen another example of this in the past two days.
Is this all a fiendish conspiracy? No. It just happens. There is a paradox in journalism: while reporters work hard to win exclusives, standing apart from the crowd when there is a settled, majority view can be seen as unwise. So while you may have seen Peter Mandelson's less than wholly supportive comments about Ed Miliband on Newsnight being widely reported a few days ago, you may not know that he also said of the Labour leader that "the electoral arithmetic is probably on his side."Is this all a fiendish conspiracy? No. It just happens. There is a paradox in journalism: while reporters work hard to win exclusives, standing apart from the crowd when there is a settled, majority view can be seen as unwise. So while you may have seen Peter Mandelson's less than wholly supportive comments about Ed Miliband on Newsnight being widely reported a few days ago, you may not know that he also said of the Labour leader that "the electoral arithmetic is probably on his side."
And on that point Lord Mandelson was right: Ed Miliband probably is going to be prime minister. Just don't for God's sake tell anyone I said so.And on that point Lord Mandelson was right: Ed Miliband probably is going to be prime minister. Just don't for God's sake tell anyone I said so.