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Uphill Fight Ahead for Hong Kong’s Democracy Movement Uphill Fight for Hong Kong’s Democracy Movement
(about 3 hours later)
HONG KONG — A pro-democracy march held Tuesday by a huge crowd of mostly young demonstrators underlined the determination of many of this autonomous Chinese city’s residents to preserve and expand the freedom they inherited from British rule. But it also brought to light more challenges that may lie ahead. HONG KONG — A pro-democracy march held Tuesday by a huge crowd of mostly young demonstrators showed the determination of many of this autonomous Chinese city’s residents to preserve and expand the freedom they inherited from British rule. But it also brought to light more challenges that may lie ahead.
The protesters did not resort to violence, which would have given the local government a pretext to respond much more firmly and probably would have hurt broader public support for the demonstration. But at an overnight sit-in after the march, the police showed that they could efficiently remove and arrest 511 protesters in less than four hours — a brisk pace suggesting that they may be ready to respond to the larger sit-ins that some democracy advocates are contemplating for later this year. The protesters did not resort to violence, which would have given the local government a pretext to respond much more firmly and probably would have hurt broader public support. But at an overnight sit-in after the march, the police removed and arrested 511 protesters in less than four hours — a brisk pace suggesting that they may be ready to respond to the larger sit-ins that some democracy advocates are contemplating for this year.
The calm and poise of the demonstrators on Tuesday seemed to help reassure the business community that future protests would not severely disrupt commerce, and the Hong Kong stock market rose 1.55 percent on Wednesday. But while the protesters disproved government warnings that their activities would lead to chaos, their civil behavior could also lead to an impression that they are manageable, which could limit the pressure they are able to bring to bear on the government. But while the protesters disproved government warnings that their activities would lead to chaos, their civil behavior could also lead to an impression that they are manageable, which could limit the pressure they are able to bring to bear.
The preponderance of young people among the demonstrators may also make it much harder to reach any compromise with the local government and its backers in Beijing. The main question is who can run to become the territory’s chief executive in the next elections, in 2017. That issue was front and center for Tuesday’s march, as was the subject of an informal vote last month in which nearly 800,000 Hong Kong residents participated, and which Beijing dismissed as illegal. The youthfulness of the demonstrators may also make it harder to reach any compromise with the local government and its backers in Beijing. The main question is who can run to become the territory’s chief executive in the next elections, in 2017. That issue was front and center for Tuesday’s march, as was the subject of an informal vote last month in which nearly 800,000 Hong Kong residents participated, and which Beijing dismissed as illegal.
Students and people in their 20s have overwhelmingly supported a plan calling for the general public to be allowed to nominate candidates for chief executive — so-called civil nomination, an idea dismissed by Beijing and its allies. Students and people in their 20s have overwhelmingly supported a plan calling for the general public to nominate candidates for chief executive — so-called civil nomination, an idea rejected by Beijing and its allies.
By contrast, older Hong Kong residents have tended to support a compromise that would retain the nominating committee mandated by the Basic Law, the territory’s mini-constitution, but make that committee more diverse and open to a wider range of candidates than Beijing wants. Older Hong Kong residents have tended to support a compromise that would retain the nominating committee mandated by the Basic Law, the territory’s mini-constitution, but make that committee more diverse and open to a wider range of candidates than Beijing wants.
Asked after a speech on Wednesday afternoon whether the political center was eroding in Hong Kong, Anson Chan, the second-highest official in the Hong Kong government in the years immediately before and after the British returned the territory to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, bluntly replied, “I have to say that I agree.” Asked after a speech on Wednesday afternoon whether the political center was eroding in Hong Kong, Anson Chan, the second-highest official in the Hong Kong government in the years immediately before and after the British returned the territory to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, was blunt. “I have to say that I agree,” she replied.
Ms. Chan, one of the most influential advocates of democracy here, noted that a key pro-democracy member of the city’s legislature, Ronny Tong, had withdrawn his own plan for reconstituting the nomination committee after concluding that support in the democratic camp for civil nomination was overwhelming.Ms. Chan, one of the most influential advocates of democracy here, noted that a key pro-democracy member of the city’s legislature, Ronny Tong, had withdrawn his own plan for reconstituting the nomination committee after concluding that support in the democratic camp for civil nomination was overwhelming.
Ms. Chan said that she still favored a nominating committee with broad rules that would allow a full array of candidates to appear on the ballot, not just those approved by Beijing. She contended that such a procedural compromise would still make it possible to achieve full democratic goals. Ms. Chan said she still favored a nominating committee with broad rules that would allow a full array of candidates to appear on the ballot, not just those approved by Beijing. She contended that such a procedural compromise would still make it possible to achieve full democratic goals.
“Hong Kong people have demonstrated that we want the whole loaf, not half a loaf, and we certainly don’t want a loaf rotten through and through,” she said at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club.
Pro-Beijing hard-liners here, who have criticized the past willingness of Hong Kong governments to strike compromises with democracy advocates, are pleased with the erosion of the political center.Pro-Beijing hard-liners here, who have criticized the past willingness of Hong Kong governments to strike compromises with democracy advocates, are pleased with the erosion of the political center.
“There is a distinct split in the population of Hong Kong,” said Lau Nai-keung, one of the six Hong Kong members of the influential Basic Law Committee, which reports to the National People’s Congress Standing Committee in Beijing. “There is no neutral ground. Either you are for me or against me.” “There is a distinct split in the population of Hong Kong,” said Lau Nai-keung, one of the six Hong Kong members of the influential Basic Law Committee, which reports to Beijing. “There is no neutral ground. Either you are for me or against me.”
Mr. Lau said that China’s leaders would never accept civil nomination. “Categorically no chance,” he said. “There is no way you can force it on Beijing.”Mr. Lau said that China’s leaders would never accept civil nomination. “Categorically no chance,” he said. “There is no way you can force it on Beijing.”
Ms. Chan noted that other countries, and their citizens and companies in Hong Kong, had a large stake in the issue as well. If the many individual and political liberties that define Hong Kong are eroded, she said, the city could eventually lose its preferential status — separate from mainland China — for the purpose of many international agreements, which cover everything from airline routes and international trade to taxes, cross-border investments and visa requirements. Michael DeGolyer, the director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, a coalition of academics who have been studying the territory’s political evolution from a British colony to a Chinese territory, expressed caution about whether the march was large enough to change political calculations in Hong Kong or Beijing.
Michael DeGolyer, the director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, a 26-year-old coalition of academics who have been studying the territory’s political evolution from a British colony to a Chinese territory, expressed caution about whether Tuesday’s march had been large enough to change political calculations in Hong Kong’s government and in Beijing.
“It wasn’t this enormous, overwhelming turnout that everyone would be stunned by — it was big,” Mr. DeGolyer said.“It wasn’t this enormous, overwhelming turnout that everyone would be stunned by — it was big,” Mr. DeGolyer said.
Organizers estimated that 510,000 people joined the march, while the police calculated that the largest number of people participating at any one time during the eight-hour march was 98,600. The police did not try to estimate the total number of participants.Organizers estimated that 510,000 people joined the march, while the police calculated that the largest number of people participating at any one time during the eight-hour march was 98,600. The police did not try to estimate the total number of participants.
The University of Hong Kong’s Public Opinion Program estimated that 154,000 to 172,000 people had taken part. Since 2003, a sizable pro-democracy march has been held here every year on July 1, the anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to Chinese sovereignty. The turnout on Tuesday came closest to rivaling that of the enormous 2003 march. One lingering question on Wednesday, after the police had removed and arrested participants in the sit-in, was whether future protests would be as peaceful.
One lingering question on Wednesday, after the police had removed and arrested participants in the sit-in, was whether future sit-ins would be as peaceful. Certainly, the police showed a new willingness on Wednesday morning to arrest large numbers of people, not just push them from the road they were blocking. Of the 511 people arrested on Wednesday on accusations of obstruction of police and unlawful assembly, 364 were released with warning notices. But 18 people had to post bail before their release, and by sunset, the police were still holding 129 people.
A small but noticeable number of older residents and people in wheelchairs participated; one of the many subthemes of the march had been a call for better social benefits for the elderly and the disabled. The young protesters treated them with respect and even deference, resulting in a calmer tone to the sit-in than most had expected. The police also treated those protesters with great caution, and reluctantly arrested them while showing a clear awareness that every move was being followed by numerous television and cellphone cameras.
“Nobody wants to be a granny beater,” Mr. DeGolyer said later.
But the participation of such protesters at future demonstrations is uncertain. At the same time, the police showed a new willingness on Wednesday morning to formally arrest large numbers of people, not just carry them out of the downtown road they were blocking.
“This was not an illegal assembly; it was a peaceful and legitimate protest under international law,” said Mabel Au, the director of Amnesty International Hong Kong. “The police action was hasty and unnecessary and sets a disturbing precedent.”
The police and prosecutors showed little mercy. A police spokesman said on Wednesday evening that a 21-year-old woman from the sit-in was being prosecuted for assaulting a police officer, while three men were being charged with “possession of an offensive weapon” because one had a box cutter, one a folding knife and one a screwdriver.
Of the 511 people arrested at dawn on Wednesday on accusations of obstruction of police and unlawful assembly, 364 were released with warning notices. But the police made 18 people post bail before releasing them, and by sunset they were still holding 129 people pending further investigation.
The pro-Beijing camp was delighted with the crackdown. “I think this is a wise move because sending out a clear signal will have a better management of public expectations,” said Mr. Lau, the Basic Law Committee member. “I think it will prevent future troubles.”The pro-Beijing camp was delighted with the crackdown. “I think this is a wise move because sending out a clear signal will have a better management of public expectations,” said Mr. Lau, the Basic Law Committee member. “I think it will prevent future troubles.”
The backdrop for the protest was an increasingly repressive political environment in mainland China, where detentions of human rights advocates and others have increased as President Xi Jinping has rapidly consolidated power. Some demonstrators in Hong Kong, particularly the limited number of older demonstrators, indicated that they were seeking a greater political voice at a time when the political climate, if anything, may be darkening.The backdrop for the protest was an increasingly repressive political environment in mainland China, where detentions of human rights advocates and others have increased as President Xi Jinping has rapidly consolidated power. Some demonstrators in Hong Kong, particularly the limited number of older demonstrators, indicated that they were seeking a greater political voice at a time when the political climate, if anything, may be darkening.
“I just try my best by marching, even though it may not be of much use,” Gary Fong, a 45-year-old metalworker, said during the protest on Tuesday. “Who knows? This may be the last year that we will be allowed to march.”“I just try my best by marching, even though it may not be of much use,” Gary Fong, a 45-year-old metalworker, said during the protest on Tuesday. “Who knows? This may be the last year that we will be allowed to march.”