Kurdistan faces long, fraught road to sustainable independence

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/03/kurdistan-sustainable-independence-iraq

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Hopes of Kurdish independence are one of the Middle East's worst-kept secrets. Saddam Hussein's fall in 2003 brought the Kurdish region in northern Iraq a significant measure of self-rule, building on its precarious post-1991 autonomy. The Kurdish regional government (KRG) has steadily expanded its political and economic clout over the past decade. Now the apparent collapse of central authority in Iraq has given the biggest boost yet to the independence movement.

But the Kurds, who comprise about 20% of Iraq's population and are commonly described as the world's most populous stateless nation, must tread carefully. The territory they control, enlarged by last month's opportunistic seizure of Kirkuk, is landlocked and economically fragile. Its infrastructure remains rudimentary. And its independence has traditionally been opposed by powerful neighbours such as Turkey, Iran and Syria (which also have large Kurdish minorities) and by the US, which favours a unified Iraq and fears the possible consequences of secession.

All the same, habitual Kurdish caution is giving way to greater self-assertiveness as Baghdad's divided political elite quails before the Sunni extremists of the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (Isis). Massoud Barzani, the KRG president, set a cat among the diplomatic pigeons this week when he declared bluntly that Kurdistan's moment had finally arrived.

"Everything that's happened recently shows that it's the right of Kurdistan to achieve independence. From now on, we won't hide that that's our goal. Iraq is effectively partitioned now … We'll hold a referendum and it's a matter of months," Barzani said. On Thursday, Barzani asked the Irbil parliament to prepare a vote.

Kurdish leaders maintain that, far from undermining Iraq's unity, the KRG has become an island of stability in a sea of troubles. Baghdad's warring Shia and Sunni factions, who failed again this week to agree on a new government, have brought the crisis down on their own heads, said Barham Salih, a former KRG prime minister.

"No doubt every Kurd wants an independent Kurdistan but we have made a deliberate decision to work within a democratic, federal Iraq. Undeniably the prospects of this federal Iraq are fading fast," Salih told US commentator Jeffrey Goldberg.

But Kurdistan still faces a long, fraught road to sustainable independence. As other newly independent states such as Kosovo and South Sudan have found to their cost, creating and defending internal security and internationally recognised borders, growing a self-sufficient economy, overcoming corruption, and ensuring political unity present formidable challenges.

Kurdistan, for example, controls valuable energy reserves, on which most of its income depends. But oil exports depend largely on a pipeline through Turkey, which opened this year. Faced by political developments in Irbil it dislikes, it would be an easy matter for Ankara to turn off the tap. Turkey has been fighting Kurdish insurgents in its south-east region for decades. It has always been assumed it would oppose Iraqi Kurdish independence, fearing a knock-on effect at home.

But that perception has gradually changed since 2003 amid heavy Turkish commercial investment in northern Iraq. High-level political contacts with the KRG are now routine, while Ankara's relations with Baghdad have soured. It may be that Turkey will ultimately prefer a stable, friendly new border state free of extremists (of any hue) that is also an energy supplier and trading partner.

"If Barzani does push for independence, he's gambling that the Turks will concede that, one, KRG oil deals are more valuable than KRG statehood is dangerous, and two, that Kurds are still a valuable buffer zone vis-a-vis Iran," said analyst Lee Smith.

Set against this prospect is the likelihood that, assuming he survives the civil war, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad will revert to his former anti-Kurdish policies. Iran, similarly fearful of domestic unrest, remains deeply hostile to Kurdish aspirations.

Support came from an unlikely quarter this week when Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, endorsed Kurdish independence. He wanted to rally the region's "moderate forces" against the rise of extremism, he said. But whatever others say, Washington's attitude may ultimately prove decisive.

Senior Kurdish officials met US secretary of state John Kerry in Washington this week to ask for financial assistance in coping with the turmoil around them, including an influx of refugees. Their request underlined their continuing dependence. More than that, Washington's backing for independence would require not only US funds but a galling acceptance that America's long war to secure a free, united Iraq has failed miserably.