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| Populist Hopeful Says He’s Likely Winner in Indonesia, Defeating Ex-General | Populist Hopeful Says He’s Likely Winner in Indonesia, Defeating Ex-General |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| JAKARTA, Indonesia — Joko Widodo, the populist governor of Jakarta who burst onto Indonesia’s national political scene less than two years ago, said Wednesday that he appeared to have won the country’s presidential election, with results from several unofficial tallies putting him ahead of his opponent, a former army general. But the ex-general, Prabowo Subianto, said it was too early to declare a winner. | |
| Independent polling firms conducting so-called quick counts, which are taken from a small sample of polling stations across the far-flung country, indicated that Mr. Joko had a lead of four to six percentage points. The quick counts conducted by those firms have been highly accurate in past elections. | Independent polling firms conducting so-called quick counts, which are taken from a small sample of polling stations across the far-flung country, indicated that Mr. Joko had a lead of four to six percentage points. The quick counts conducted by those firms have been highly accurate in past elections. |
| If the official results, which the general election commission must announce by July 22, confirm that Mr. Joko won, he will have completed an unlikely and meteoric rise to leader of the world’s fourth-most-populous nation. Elected governor of Jakarta, the capital, in 2012, Mr. Joko is known for a “people first” credo and humble manner that are a striking departure from the aloof style of most Indonesian politicians. | If the official results, which the general election commission must announce by July 22, confirm that Mr. Joko won, he will have completed an unlikely and meteoric rise to leader of the world’s fourth-most-populous nation. Elected governor of Jakarta, the capital, in 2012, Mr. Joko is known for a “people first” credo and humble manner that are a striking departure from the aloof style of most Indonesian politicians. |
| Less than two hours after the polls closed early Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Joko — popularly known as Jokowi — and leaders of his opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle held a news conference at the home of the party’s chairwoman, Megawati Sukarnoputri, that was broadcast live on national television. | Less than two hours after the polls closed early Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Joko — popularly known as Jokowi — and leaders of his opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle held a news conference at the home of the party’s chairwoman, Megawati Sukarnoputri, that was broadcast live on national television. |
| “According to quick counts, Jokowi-J.K. look to have won,” Mr. Joko said, referring to himself and his running mate, Jusuf Kalla. | “According to quick counts, Jokowi-J.K. look to have won,” Mr. Joko said, referring to himself and his running mate, Jusuf Kalla. |
| Mrs. Megawati, a former president herself, stepped aside in March and appointed Mr. Joko as the party’s presidential candidate. She went further than Mr. Joko in her statement, saying, “Even though this is still in the vote-counting process, we already can say that Jokowi will be president.” | Mrs. Megawati, a former president herself, stepped aside in March and appointed Mr. Joko as the party’s presidential candidate. She went further than Mr. Joko in her statement, saying, “Even though this is still in the vote-counting process, we already can say that Jokowi will be president.” |
| On Wednesday evening, Mr. Joko repeated the quick-count results during a brief speech at a monument in central Jakarta dedicated to Indonesia’s declaration of independence from Dutch colonial rule in 1945. “To win means to serve the people,” he said. “So all our people must unite for a better Indonesia.” | On Wednesday evening, Mr. Joko repeated the quick-count results during a brief speech at a monument in central Jakarta dedicated to Indonesia’s declaration of independence from Dutch colonial rule in 1945. “To win means to serve the people,” he said. “So all our people must unite for a better Indonesia.” |
| Mr. Prabowo, however, did not concede defeat. His campaign cited quick counts conducted by five lesser-known polling firms, which indicated that he had an average lead of 2.5 points. | Mr. Prabowo, however, did not concede defeat. His campaign cited quick counts conducted by five lesser-known polling firms, which indicated that he had an average lead of 2.5 points. |
| During an impassioned speech to cheering supporters on Wednesday night, Mr. Prabowo appealed for patience until the official final results were released. “Don’t be provoked,” he said. “It’s O.K. if there are claims and declarations of victory by others, but they are not based on the election law.” | During an impassioned speech to cheering supporters on Wednesday night, Mr. Prabowo appealed for patience until the official final results were released. “Don’t be provoked,” he said. “It’s O.K. if there are claims and declarations of victory by others, but they are not based on the election law.” |
| Analysts said the firms that conducted the quick counts he cited were widely viewed as untested. “They are not credible institutions,” said Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, a political scientist with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences. | Analysts said the firms that conducted the quick counts he cited were widely viewed as untested. “They are not credible institutions,” said Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, a political scientist with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences. |
| The winner will replace President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. The vote culminates an intense political season that saw legislative elections in April followed by a bruising presidential campaign. | The winner will replace President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. The vote culminates an intense political season that saw legislative elections in April followed by a bruising presidential campaign. |
| Trailing by more than 20 percentage points in one poll three months ago, Mr. Prabowo surged after campaigning began in early June. Two polls released on Saturday indicated that the candidates were essentially tied, as Mr. Joko’s advantage was within the polls’ margins of sampling error. | Trailing by more than 20 percentage points in one poll three months ago, Mr. Prabowo surged after campaigning began in early June. Two polls released on Saturday indicated that the candidates were essentially tied, as Mr. Joko’s advantage was within the polls’ margins of sampling error. |
| Mr. Joko, a former furniture exporter, promised “more people-centric” governance and policies in Indonesia, which has more than 100 million people living on $2 a day or less. Mr. Prabowo, who was a son-in-law of Suharto, who ruled Indonesia for 32 years, pledged firm, decisive leadership, grass-roots welfare programs and protectionist economic policies. | Mr. Joko, a former furniture exporter, promised “more people-centric” governance and policies in Indonesia, which has more than 100 million people living on $2 a day or less. Mr. Prabowo, who was a son-in-law of Suharto, who ruled Indonesia for 32 years, pledged firm, decisive leadership, grass-roots welfare programs and protectionist economic policies. |
| Mr. Joko became known for walking through slums, markets and lower-class neighborhoods to talk to people about bread-and-butter issues like health care, education and flood control. | Mr. Joko became known for walking through slums, markets and lower-class neighborhoods to talk to people about bread-and-butter issues like health care, education and flood control. |
| Mr. Joko’s early, commanding lead in the polls evaporated in part because of a smear campaign in which he was falsely said to be both Christian and ethnic Chinese. Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, and ethnicity, race and religion remain sensitive issues. Both candidates are Muslim and ethnic Javanese. | Mr. Joko’s early, commanding lead in the polls evaporated in part because of a smear campaign in which he was falsely said to be both Christian and ethnic Chinese. Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, and ethnicity, race and religion remain sensitive issues. Both candidates are Muslim and ethnic Javanese. |
| Mr. Prabowo was criticized during the campaign for his controversial military career, including allegations of gross human rights abuses as the commander of Indonesia’s Special Forces and as head of the army strategic reserve command under Mr. Suharto, who was forced to resign in 1998 amid pro-democracy demonstrations. | Mr. Prabowo was criticized during the campaign for his controversial military career, including allegations of gross human rights abuses as the commander of Indonesia’s Special Forces and as head of the army strategic reserve command under Mr. Suharto, who was forced to resign in 1998 amid pro-democracy demonstrations. |
| Mr. Joko is the first presidential candidate who was not on the political scene during Mr. Suharto’s tenure. The election has been characterized by some as both a race between Indonesia’s rich and poor and a choice between a reformer and a figure from the authoritarian past. | Mr. Joko is the first presidential candidate who was not on the political scene during Mr. Suharto’s tenure. The election has been characterized by some as both a race between Indonesia’s rich and poor and a choice between a reformer and a figure from the authoritarian past. |
| More than 187 million Indonesians were registered to vote at more than 450,000 polling stations on more than 7,000 islands across the vast archipelago. Voter turnout during the April 9 general elections was an impressive 75 percent, and analysts said that turnout Wednesday could be higher, given the nationwide excitement about the campaign. | More than 187 million Indonesians were registered to vote at more than 450,000 polling stations on more than 7,000 islands across the vast archipelago. Voter turnout during the April 9 general elections was an impressive 75 percent, and analysts said that turnout Wednesday could be higher, given the nationwide excitement about the campaign. |
| At a polling station in Tangerang, in Banten Province, just outside of Jakarta, Bondar, 33, a barber, said he had voted for Mr. Joko. | At a polling station in Tangerang, in Banten Province, just outside of Jakarta, Bondar, 33, a barber, said he had voted for Mr. Joko. |
| “I voted for Jokowi because he has no connection with the Suharto family,” he said. “He won’t be influenced by the old regime.” | “I voted for Jokowi because he has no connection with the Suharto family,” he said. “He won’t be influenced by the old regime.” |
| At a polling station in central Jakarta, Katherina Setiadi, 95, who grew up under Dutch colonial rule in Indonesia, said she voted for Mr. Joko because she believed he was a good man. | At a polling station in central Jakarta, Katherina Setiadi, 95, who grew up under Dutch colonial rule in Indonesia, said she voted for Mr. Joko because she believed he was a good man. |
| “There’s so much energy today compared to” Mr. Suharto’s time, she said. | “There’s so much energy today compared to” Mr. Suharto’s time, she said. |
| Nearby, Nuka Santoso, 57 a psychologist, said she voted for Mr. Prabowo because of his leadership qualities, and rejected assertions that he might roll back Indonesia’s democratization. | Nearby, Nuka Santoso, 57 a psychologist, said she voted for Mr. Prabowo because of his leadership qualities, and rejected assertions that he might roll back Indonesia’s democratization. |
| “I’m not worried at all,” she said. | “I’m not worried at all,” she said. |