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Falling North Sea oil revenue 'to hit government finances' Falling North Sea oil revenue 'to hit government finances'
(about 4 hours later)
Dwindling revenue from North Sea oil will increase the pressure on government finances over the coming decades, according to the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).Dwindling revenue from North Sea oil will increase the pressure on government finances over the coming decades, according to the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The OBR has cut its estimate of tax income from the North Sea between 2020 and 2041 by a quarter, to £40bn.The OBR has cut its estimate of tax income from the North Sea between 2020 and 2041 by a quarter, to £40bn.
The fall is down to lower production forecasts over the next few years.The fall is down to lower production forecasts over the next few years.
But the OBR did say that government debt will peak in 2015-16, a year earlier than expected, at 78.7% of GDP.But the OBR did say that government debt will peak in 2015-16, a year earlier than expected, at 78.7% of GDP.
This is 6.9 percentage points lower than previously forecast.This is 6.9 percentage points lower than previously forecast.
The latest figures show total debt at £1.273bn, or 76.1% of GDP. This is the equivalent of £48,200 per household.The latest figures show total debt at £1.273bn, or 76.1% of GDP. This is the equivalent of £48,200 per household.
The OBR warned that governments will have to raise taxes or implement further spending cuts in the coming decades, mainly because, as life expectancy grows, the cost of health, social care and the state pension will increase.The OBR warned that governments will have to raise taxes or implement further spending cuts in the coming decades, mainly because, as life expectancy grows, the cost of health, social care and the state pension will increase.
Lower revenue from taxes on North Sea oil producers will exacerbate the problem, along with falling income from road taxes as cars become more efficient, it added.Lower revenue from taxes on North Sea oil producers will exacerbate the problem, along with falling income from road taxes as cars become more efficient, it added.
The OBR was created by George Osborne in 2010 in one of his first acts as Chancellor to provide independent economic forecasts and analysis of the UK's public finances. The OBR was created by George Osborne in 2010 in one of his first acts as chancellor to provide independent economic forecasts and analysis of the UK's public finances.
The assessment drew a scathing reaction from the Scottish government, with First Minister Alex Salmond describing it as "stuff and nonsense".
Asked about the potential impact of the OBR report on the Scottish independence debate, he said: "The OBR are suggesting 10 billion barrels of oil and gas remaining. Oil and Gas UK say up to 24 billion barrels. Sir Ian Wood, who did the report just last year, says up to 24 billion barrels.
"The Professor of Geology at Aberdeen University says it is more like over 30 billion barrels.
"Now, all of these people know infinitely more about the extent of the reserves remaining in the North Sea than the Office of Budget Responsibility in London does. I think they should start talking to the experts."