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| Obama Likely to Seek Additional Time for Nuclear Negotiations With Iran | Obama Likely to Seek Additional Time for Nuclear Negotiations With Iran |
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| WASHINGTON — President Obama said on Wednesday that he believed the United States had “a credible way forward” in its nuclear negotiations with Iran, and strongly suggested that after consultations with Congress, which has been threatening additional sanctions, he would seek an extension of the talks beyond Sunday’s deadline. | WASHINGTON — President Obama said on Wednesday that he believed the United States had “a credible way forward” in its nuclear negotiations with Iran, and strongly suggested that after consultations with Congress, which has been threatening additional sanctions, he would seek an extension of the talks beyond Sunday’s deadline. |
| “There are still some significant gaps between the international community and Iran,” he said in the White House press room, before announcing additional sanctions on Russia, “and we have more work to do.” | “There are still some significant gaps between the international community and Iran,” he said in the White House press room, before announcing additional sanctions on Russia, “and we have more work to do.” |
| Iran has already signaled that it wants more time to negotiate, but Mr. Obama is almost certain to run into opposition on Capitol Hill if he agrees to it. Republicans and even some Democrats have argued that Tehran is simply stalling. | Iran has already signaled that it wants more time to negotiate, but Mr. Obama is almost certain to run into opposition on Capitol Hill if he agrees to it. Republicans and even some Democrats have argued that Tehran is simply stalling. |
| It is unclear whether Iran will demand more sanctions relief in return for an extension. But in Vienna over the past two weeks, as Iran and the West began to define what a deal might look like, Mr. Obama’s aides have debated a question that no longer seems theoretical: How much risk is the United States willing to take to reach a deal that will almost certainly leave Iran with some potential, over the long term, to make a nuclear weapon? | It is unclear whether Iran will demand more sanctions relief in return for an extension. But in Vienna over the past two weeks, as Iran and the West began to define what a deal might look like, Mr. Obama’s aides have debated a question that no longer seems theoretical: How much risk is the United States willing to take to reach a deal that will almost certainly leave Iran with some potential, over the long term, to make a nuclear weapon? |
| The Iranian proposal Mr. Kerry brought back to Washington from Vienna, where he spent three days haggling with his counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, is widely judged as insufficient by American officials and intelligence experts. They argue that it would not give the West the minimum Mr. Kerry said last year was acceptable: at least a year’s warning time that Iran was racing to produce enough bomb-grade fuel for a nuclear weapon — even if fabricating the weapon itself would take longer. | The Iranian proposal Mr. Kerry brought back to Washington from Vienna, where he spent three days haggling with his counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, is widely judged as insufficient by American officials and intelligence experts. They argue that it would not give the West the minimum Mr. Kerry said last year was acceptable: at least a year’s warning time that Iran was racing to produce enough bomb-grade fuel for a nuclear weapon — even if fabricating the weapon itself would take longer. |
| That is something of an arbitrary measure, and, in the minds of many nuclear experts, a misleading one. There are many pathways to a bomb. Iran could manufacture it in a covert facility; so far, two such facilities have been discovered over the past dozen years, and American intelligence agencies have compiled a long list of “suspect sites” they would like to know more about. Tehran could buy the fuel from another country — say, North Korea, with which Iran has a longstanding missile trade and technical exchanges. | That is something of an arbitrary measure, and, in the minds of many nuclear experts, a misleading one. There are many pathways to a bomb. Iran could manufacture it in a covert facility; so far, two such facilities have been discovered over the past dozen years, and American intelligence agencies have compiled a long list of “suspect sites” they would like to know more about. Tehran could buy the fuel from another country — say, North Korea, with which Iran has a longstanding missile trade and technical exchanges. |
| In fact, many of those who have studied Iran’s nuclear program most closely over the years say that if Iran ever decided to build a weapon, it would not be foolish enough to obtain the fuel from well-known facilities that are crawling with international nuclear inspectors. | In fact, many of those who have studied Iran’s nuclear program most closely over the years say that if Iran ever decided to build a weapon, it would not be foolish enough to obtain the fuel from well-known facilities that are crawling with international nuclear inspectors. |
| “They would find another way,” said Gary Samore, who was Mr. Obama’s top adviser for countering unconventional weapons during the first term, and now is president of an advocacy group called United Against Nuclear Iran. But Mr. Samore quickly added that “a deal must be measured on some objective criteria,” and that in this case “ ‘breakout time’ is what is going to be used to measure this one.” | “They would find another way,” said Gary Samore, who was Mr. Obama’s top adviser for countering unconventional weapons during the first term, and now is president of an advocacy group called United Against Nuclear Iran. But Mr. Samore quickly added that “a deal must be measured on some objective criteria,” and that in this case “ ‘breakout time’ is what is going to be used to measure this one.” |
| No one understands that better than the American-educated Mr. Zarif, who said in an interview on Monday in Vienna that he deliberately “broke a taboo” in Iran and commissioned a scientific study of how long it would take the country, with its existing infrastructure, to manufacture bomb-grade fuel — something it has never talked about before because it insists its intentions are entirely peaceful. | No one understands that better than the American-educated Mr. Zarif, who said in an interview on Monday in Vienna that he deliberately “broke a taboo” in Iran and commissioned a scientific study of how long it would take the country, with its existing infrastructure, to manufacture bomb-grade fuel — something it has never talked about before because it insists its intentions are entirely peaceful. |
| Not surprisingly, the Iranian scientist came back with a report arguing that it would take years. In the interview, Mr. Zarif argued that the ideas he set out to his American counterparts over the last two weeks in Vienna met Mr. Kerry’s own test — a calculation American officials dispute. But the American officials also believe that the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington has overestimated Iran’s skills when it reported recently that if it kept roughly 10,000 centrifuges running, it could produce a weapon’s worth of material in three months or so, plus or minus a few weeks. | Not surprisingly, the Iranian scientist came back with a report arguing that it would take years. In the interview, Mr. Zarif argued that the ideas he set out to his American counterparts over the last two weeks in Vienna met Mr. Kerry’s own test — a calculation American officials dispute. But the American officials also believe that the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington has overestimated Iran’s skills when it reported recently that if it kept roughly 10,000 centrifuges running, it could produce a weapon’s worth of material in three months or so, plus or minus a few weeks. |
| But Mr. Zarif has tossed into the mix some concessions that would make it harder to produce weapons-grade fuel. And the fact that Mr. Zarif is moving at all — that he has stopped talking about a rapid increase in Iran’s capabilities for another three to seven years, at a minimum — is likely to be at the core of the White House case for keeping the talks going. “We’re seeing movement, and that may be enough to justify continuing the talks,” one official involved in the negotiations said. | But Mr. Zarif has tossed into the mix some concessions that would make it harder to produce weapons-grade fuel. And the fact that Mr. Zarif is moving at all — that he has stopped talking about a rapid increase in Iran’s capabilities for another three to seven years, at a minimum — is likely to be at the core of the White House case for keeping the talks going. “We’re seeing movement, and that may be enough to justify continuing the talks,” one official involved in the negotiations said. |
| For example, Iran has already offered to change the design of a plutonium reactor near the town of Arak — a reactor Mr. Zarif argued that the West had tried to sabotage — to reduce its output of bomb-usable fuel. There has been discussion, but no agreement, on changing the purpose of a deep-underground, hard-to-bomb facility called Fordo. | |
| Mr. Obama alluded to those movements on Wednesday and appears to be looking for an initial extension of at least a few months, officials say, bringing him to the time when Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, who was chief nuclear negotiator a decade ago, is in New York in September for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly. Mr. Obama will be there, too, raising the possibility of a meeting. | |
| But in the end, the success of the negotiations will come down to a calculus about risk — and everyone measures that differently. Because the United States has such a technological edge in intelligence gathering, and such a military capability to destroy Iran’s facilities, it has more risk tolerance than Israel or Saudi Arabia has. Moreover, administration officials argue that continuing the talks has a much greater likelihood of success than the other two options on the table: ramping up sanctions even more, in hopes Iran will be forced into deeper concessions, or taking military action. | |
| But Congress is less willing to accept any risk at all, if letters to the president from both the Senate and the House are any measure; they call for ironclad guarantees that Iran’s capabilities are broken forever. One such letter said nuclear concessions alone would not be enough for the House to lift sanctions: There had to be “permanent and verifiable termination” of missile programs and support for terrorism, subjects that are not even part of these negotiations. | |
| As Mr. Zarif himself pointed out, there is no such thing as a guarantee. Leaders change, countries change, intentions change. “Nothing is proliferation-proof in the nuclear field,” he said, but added that there were many technologies that were “proliferation resistant,” meaning they would not easily lead to weapons-grade fuel. | As Mr. Zarif himself pointed out, there is no such thing as a guarantee. Leaders change, countries change, intentions change. “Nothing is proliferation-proof in the nuclear field,” he said, but added that there were many technologies that were “proliferation resistant,” meaning they would not easily lead to weapons-grade fuel. |
| Could that be negotiated by the Sunday deadline, or by a short extension? He paused only a second. “We can do that by this evening,” he said. | Could that be negotiated by the Sunday deadline, or by a short extension? He paused only a second. “We can do that by this evening,” he said. |