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Dollars for fuel plates: How the Iran nuclear talks were kept alive Dollars for fuel plates: How the Iran nuclear talks were kept alive
(34 minutes later)
If nuclear negotiations were a World Cup football game, it's 1-1 and they've gone into extra time. It's a score draw because both sides in Vienna have achieved something. Iran has kept all its agreements, freezing most of its nuclear programme and dialling back some parts. The US has kept to its side of the bargain, releasing $4.2 billion from Iran's frozen back accounts. They have shown that deals can be done and implemented, which is something after so many years of deadlock.If nuclear negotiations were a World Cup football game, it's 1-1 and they've gone into extra time. It's a score draw because both sides in Vienna have achieved something. Iran has kept all its agreements, freezing most of its nuclear programme and dialling back some parts. The US has kept to its side of the bargain, releasing $4.2 billion from Iran's frozen back accounts. They have shown that deals can be done and implemented, which is something after so many years of deadlock.
However, they did not clinch the comprehensive agreement by the deadline they set themselves of July 20, so they have given themselves four more months, until November 24 to be exact. That goes beyond the term in office of the chair of the talks, Cathy Ashton. Her tenure as the EU foreign policy chief expires at the end of October but that doesn't matter too much. She was given the task of steering the nuclear talks by the UN Security Council.However, they did not clinch the comprehensive agreement by the deadline they set themselves of July 20, so they have given themselves four more months, until November 24 to be exact. That goes beyond the term in office of the chair of the talks, Cathy Ashton. Her tenure as the EU foreign policy chief expires at the end of October but that doesn't matter too much. She was given the task of steering the nuclear talks by the UN Security Council.
In reality, there will be less than three more months of real negotiations, as the Europeans at the table won the battle to take all of August off. Towards the end of that month or early September, Ashton and the Iranian foreign minister, and their deputies, will get together to sketch out the road ahead. In an ideal world, the deal will be ready by the time presidents Barack Obama, Hassan Rouhani and other heads of government converge on New York for the annual UN General Assembly summit. More realistically, negotiators are hoping for October, so the talks don't become a political football in the US midterm elections in November. In reality, there will be less than three more months of real negotiations, as the Europeans at the table won the battle to take all of August off. Towards the end of that month or early September, Ashton and the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and their deputies, will get together to sketch out the road ahead. In an ideal world, the deal will be ready by the time presidents Barack Obama, Hassan Rouhani and other heads of government converge on New York for the annual UN General Assembly summit. More realistically, negotiators are hoping for October, so the talks don't become a political football in the US midterm elections in November.
After all the late nights and endless Wiener schnitzels, the negotiators are going home with something to show for their labours. The Iranian government will get another $2.8 billion unfrozen, in monthly batches of $500 million and $400 million. The Americans and Europeans can point to some Iranian concessions in return. Iran will turn a quarter of its stockpile of 20%-enriched uranium oxide, 25kg, into fuel plates, which would make it almost impossible to convert it back into gas that could be further enriched to weapons grade. The Iranians will also dilute a stock of 2%-enriched uranium, waste product from enrichment. And the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be given oversight over production of centrifuge rotors.After all the late nights and endless Wiener schnitzels, the negotiators are going home with something to show for their labours. The Iranian government will get another $2.8 billion unfrozen, in monthly batches of $500 million and $400 million. The Americans and Europeans can point to some Iranian concessions in return. Iran will turn a quarter of its stockpile of 20%-enriched uranium oxide, 25kg, into fuel plates, which would make it almost impossible to convert it back into gas that could be further enriched to weapons grade. The Iranians will also dilute a stock of 2%-enriched uranium, waste product from enrichment. And the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be given oversight over production of centrifuge rotors.
The reason negotiations on the extension went on deep into the night on Thursday and Friday was that the Iranians were not prepared to turn a part of their stockpile of reactor-grade uranium into oxide, so in the end this grab-bag of confidence-building measures was put together.The reason negotiations on the extension went on deep into the night on Thursday and Friday was that the Iranians were not prepared to turn a part of their stockpile of reactor-grade uranium into oxide, so in the end this grab-bag of confidence-building measures was put together.
UPDATE: A senior western diplomat at the talks said: "The gaps are not unbridgeable. The main text is there, all aspects are addressed, we dont expect any surprises. But we need to solve the core issues which remain in 'brackets' ".
The remaining deadlock centres on the size of Iran's enrichment capacity, the heavy water reactor at Arak and unresolved questions about past weapons development work being examined by the IAEA.The remaining deadlock centres on the size of Iran's enrichment capacity, the heavy water reactor at Arak and unresolved questions about past weapons development work being examined by the IAEA.
Enrichment capacity is the biggest problem. The US and the Europeans want Iran to reduce its present operating capacity of roughly 10,000 centrifuges, pointing out that it is far beyond its uranium fuel needs for the forseeable future. They worry that the more centrifuges spinning, the shorter is Iran's breakout time (the period it would take Iran from a decision to make a bomb to the completion of the first warhead). Iran says it would be humiliating, and therefore politically unacceptable, to dismantle the country's prized centrifuge cascades.Enrichment capacity is the biggest problem. The US and the Europeans want Iran to reduce its present operating capacity of roughly 10,000 centrifuges, pointing out that it is far beyond its uranium fuel needs for the forseeable future. They worry that the more centrifuges spinning, the shorter is Iran's breakout time (the period it would take Iran from a decision to make a bomb to the completion of the first warhead). Iran says it would be humiliating, and therefore politically unacceptable, to dismantle the country's prized centrifuge cascades.
Iran has suggested design changes to the Arak heavy water reactor under construction so that it generates less plutonium in its spent fuel. The West want a light water reactor built instead, to remove the proliferation risk almost entirely. For Iran this is difficult because of all the money it has sunk into the current reactor and a heavy water production plant.Iran has suggested design changes to the Arak heavy water reactor under construction so that it generates less plutonium in its spent fuel. The West want a light water reactor built instead, to remove the proliferation risk almost entirely. For Iran this is difficult because of all the money it has sunk into the current reactor and a heavy water production plant.
The IAEA enquiry into the 'possible military dimensions' of the Iranian programme is moving painfully slowly and threatens to drag these negotiations back with it. Part of the problem is the Iranian foreign ministry is involved in the talks, while access to sensitive sites is up to the military. The issue would not have to be resolved completely by the time a comprehensive deal is signed, but that deal would have completion of the IAEA enquiry as a necessary milesone in one of its phases.The IAEA enquiry into the 'possible military dimensions' of the Iranian programme is moving painfully slowly and threatens to drag these negotiations back with it. Part of the problem is the Iranian foreign ministry is involved in the talks, while access to sensitive sites is up to the military. The issue would not have to be resolved completely by the time a comprehensive deal is signed, but that deal would have completion of the IAEA enquiry as a necessary milesone in one of its phases.
Negotiators have talked about fresh ideas that emerged in the last days of talks in Vienna that could bear fruit in the next four months. Most fundamentally, the Iranians will have to get over the fixation of keeping every one of its existing centrifuges in place, churning out enriched uranium it will not need for many years.Negotiators have talked about fresh ideas that emerged in the last days of talks in Vienna that could bear fruit in the next four months. Most fundamentally, the Iranians will have to get over the fixation of keeping every one of its existing centrifuges in place, churning out enriched uranium it will not need for many years.
The West may have to dilute its own obsession with breakout time, which makes it so hard for it to compromise on centrifuge numbers. It is a obsession that is not entirely logical. Few people expect Iran to try to make a bomb by reconfiguring its known enrichment facilities. The world would get several months warning before it built a single warhead. It would be a sure path to getting bombed. If Iran were to make a nuclear weapon, it would do it in covert facilities, and the best chance of spotting those is through enhanced IAEA inspections and other aspects of heightened international presence which Iran has agreed to. For a deal to fall apart, after all this work, over centrifuge numbers really would be the height of folly on all sides.The West may have to dilute its own obsession with breakout time, which makes it so hard for it to compromise on centrifuge numbers. It is a obsession that is not entirely logical. Few people expect Iran to try to make a bomb by reconfiguring its known enrichment facilities. The world would get several months warning before it built a single warhead. It would be a sure path to getting bombed. If Iran were to make a nuclear weapon, it would do it in covert facilities, and the best chance of spotting those is through enhanced IAEA inspections and other aspects of heightened international presence which Iran has agreed to. For a deal to fall apart, after all this work, over centrifuge numbers really would be the height of folly on all sides.