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Tense Standoff With Maliki as Iraq Nominates New Leader Iraqis Nominate Maliki Successor, Causing Standoff
(about 4 hours later)
BAGHDAD — Iraq’s president formally nominated a candidate on Monday to replace Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. The step broke a monthslong political deadlock, but it also seemed to take Iraq into uncharted territory, as Mr. Maliki gave no signal that he was willing to relinquish power. BAGHDAD — Under heavy pressure from the United States, Iraqi lawmakers took a significant step on Monday by choosing a replacement for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, widely blamed for their country’s polarized politics. But Mr. Maliki angrily rejected the move, vowing to fight in the courts and perhaps by use of force, throwing the country into new uncertainty even as it fights an onslaught by Sunni militants.
The Obama administration, which has been pushing Iraqi lawmakers to name a replacement for Mr. Maliki, added to the pressure on him by welcoming the nomination of the candidate, Haider al-Abadi, a member of Mr. Maliki’s own Shiite Islamist Dawa Party. President Obama, interrupting his vacation on Martha’s Vineyard, congratulated Mr. Abadi in a televised statement. The change in leadership could help soothe Iraq’s sectarian fractures and unite the country under Mr. Maliki’s nominated successor, a member of his own Shiite party. But Mr. Maliki’s insistence that he is the rightful leader could just as easily tear Iraq further apart.
The nomination of of Mr. Abadi came hours after a dramatic late-night television appearance in which a defiant Mr. Maliki challenged the Iraqi president, Fuad Masum, and threatened legal action for not choosing him as the nominee. Complicating the picture more was the United States, which helped orchestrate Mr. Maliki’s rise to power eight years ago but now holds him responsible for alienating the country’s Sunni minority and helping fuel the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Sunni extremist group. Territorial gains by ISIS in the north prompted a new military intervention by the United States — and gave Washington fresh leverage to demand political changes in Baghdad.
As he spoke in the middle of the night, extra security forces, including special forces units loyal to Mr. Maliki, as well as tanks, locked down the fortified Green Zone of government buildings and took up positions around the city. Soldiers manned numerous checkpoints on Monday and were numerous in the Green Zone, and the atmosphere in the capital was tense. President Obama welcomed the nomination of a new prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, interrupting his vacation on Martha’s Vineyard to announce in a televised statement that both he and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. had congratulated Mr. Abadi on the phone, calling his nomination “an important step towards forming a new government that can unite Iraq’s different communities.”
There were no immediate signs on Monday afternoon that Mr. Maliki had taken any further steps to use military force to guarantee his survival. He was scheduled to make a public statement on television, along with other members of his Dawa Party who remain loyal to him. But Mr. Obama also reminded the Iraqis that America’s renewed military assistance — punctuated by the airstrikes that began pounding ISIS positions last week — was no solution to what he called the larger crisis in Iraq. “The only lasting solution is for Iraqis to come together and form an inclusive government,” he said.
Mr. Maliki’s late-night television appearance, in which he appeared to be trying to intimidate Mr. Masum by mentioning the army in the context of protecting the Constitution, alarmed American officials and left Baghdad wondering if a coup was imminent. Although Mr. Maliki is widely reviled in Iraq, he remains a formidable force, with relatives who command special security forces, courts that are heavily shaped by his influence and a history of exacting revenge on his domestic opponents. Mr. Maliki’s stubbornness presents multiple challenges to the United States, which wants to preserve Iraq’s cohesion while helping to stop ISIS’ avowed goal of creating a monolithic Islamic caliphate that ignores national boundaries.
Under Iraq’s Constitution, Mr. Abadi now has 30 days in which to form a government that offers meaningful positions to Iraq’s main minority factions, Sunnis and Kurds. During that time, Mr. Maliki will remain as a caretaker leader, and as commander in chief of Iraq’s security forces. Mr. Obama spoke after a day of high political drama in Baghdad, where Mr. Maliki appeared on state television and blamed the United States for “standing beside those who violated the Iraqi Constitution.” The stage was set for more drama in the coming days, as the new nominee works to form a government, and Mr. Maliki pursues his bid to remain in power through a legal challenge, or as some worry, the use of the military to guarantee his survival.
The Dawa Party, to which both Mr. Maliki and Mr. Abadi belong, has its roots in the clandestine political opposition to the Sunni Baathist dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. Like many of Iraq’s current leaders, Mr. Abadi lived in exile during part of the Hussein era. He has recently been first deputy speaker of Iraq’s Parliament. “We will fix the mistake,” he said, without being specific.
The United States has been reluctant to help the Iraqi government militarily as long as it is led by Mr. Maliki, a Shiite Islamist who is seen by many as exacerbating sectarian and ethnic tensions, alienating some Sunnis and driving them to join the militants. The nomination of Mr. Abadi came hours after a television appearance on Sunday, just before midnight, by a defiant Mr. Maliki, who had already deployed extra security forces around the capital. In that speech he challenged the Iraqi president, Fuad Masum, and threatened legal action against Mr. Masum — and implied that the army was ready to step in and defend the constitution — for not choosing him.
Even many who are opposed to Mr. Maliki’s coalition appeared ready to accept someone else from inside it. “Really, at this point, I think it’s anybody but Maliki,” said a Kurdish politician who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation. In Washington, the Sunday routines of officials who work on Iraq policy were suddenly interrupted. American officials, worried that a coup might be underway, scrambled to ensure that Mr. Maliki’s rivals would decide on an alternative candidate by Monday. They sent a pointed message to Mr. Maliki not to target political rivals for arrest, as he has done many times in the past, according to a senior Shiite lawmaker involved in the negotiations to form a government.
Whether Mr. Maliki will accept someone else from his bloc in the top spot remains unclear. A senior State Department official said that Mr. Maliki appeared to be mounting a “last, desperate effort to try to force some kind of a deal.” The official added, “He ain’t going to be prime minister.”
“The risk is, if he clings to power, he will control the country by force,” said another senior Iraqi politician. “This would be a military coup.” Other senior Obama administration officials said American representatives in Iraq had been increasingly and deeply involved in Baghdad discussions during the last 10 days to settle on an alternative to Mr. Maliki.
Secretary of State John Kerry, in Australia, warned that Mr. Maliki must back the constitutional process and not attempt to circumvent it by using his powers as commander in chief to stay in office. He said that any extralegal effort to cling to power would bring a cutoff of international aid. The officials said they were in constant contact with the new Iraqi president over the past several weeks as Mr. Masum sought to narrow the possible candidates from five to one. On Sunday, as the deadline approached, American officials were in conversations throughout the day, urging the various factions to coalesce around a nominee, officials said.
“There should be no use of force,” Mr. Kerry said in remarks to reporters in Sydney, where he was meeting with government leaders, “no introduction of troops or militias into this moment of democracy for Iraq.” The message, according to one senior administration official: Your country is in desperate straits, and you need to get together and make some political decisions.
“Iraq needs to finish its government formation process,” Mr. Kerry added. “And our hope is that Mr. Maliki will not stir those waters.” He said the Iraqi people wanted a peaceful transition of power. On television Monday afternoon, as Baghdad wondered whether a coup was imminent, competing visions played out: one of the country uniting, the other of it spiraling further apart. In midafternoon, in a show of national unity, the new president, a Kurd, and the new speaker, a Sunni, stood with several Shiite lawmakers to formally nominate Mr. Abadi.
If Mr. Maliki were to call on the Iraqi Army to back his effort to stay in power, he could face resistance from one or several of the many militia groups that have close ties to political parties. “The country is in your hands,” Mr. Masum said to Mr. Abadi.
“We’re all worried about a coup d'état,” said Gen. Halgurd Hikmet, the chief spokesman for the Kurdish fighters in Iraq, known as pesh merga. “Maliki has to know that we have two major units of our troops guarding the Parliament and the Defense Ministry,” he said referring to the Kurdish division of the Iraqi Army. With a smile, another Shiite lawmaker then shook Mr. Abadi’s hand and said, “May God help you.”
There are also forces loyal to the influential Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, who oppose Mr. Maliki and are numerous in Baghdad. And there are the fighters of the Badr Corps, who are technically part of the Iraqi Army but remain closely tied to Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful Shiite member of the Iraqi Parliament with links to Iran. Whether Badr fighters back Mr. Maliki or move against him could help determine whether he survives in office. Hours later, Mr. Maliki appeared on television next to an ever-shrinking circle of Shiite allies from his party. He did not speak then — although he would later in the appearance in which he castigated the United States — but a surrogate, Khalaf Abdul Samad, did.
It was not clear whether any of these militias would take action, but the potential for clashes is real, several people said. “Abadi does not represent the Dawa Party; he represents himself only,” Mr. Samad said. “We are sticking with Maliki as our only candidate for prime minister.”
A person close to Mr. Masum, who is Kurdish, said the president had “taken his briefcase and gone to his office as usual” on Monday morning. His presidential guard is on high alert, said a Kurdish leader who was in touch with the guard team, made up of Kurdish pesh merga. Mr. Samad said that Mr. Maliki would pursue a legal challenge against Mr. Masum’s choice of Mr. Abadi, arguing that it was Mr. Maliki’s bloc, State of Law, that has the constitutional right to have the first opportunity to form a new government.
“What Fuad Masum is doing is trying to make things clear,” said Aram al-Sheikh Mohammed, a leader of Goran, one of the Kurdish parties in the Iraqi Parliament. Although the army was “there in the Green Zone Sunday night, Fuad Masum’s house was not surrounded” as some media outlets reported, he said. The question is whether Mr. Abadi, who like many of Iraq’s Shiite leaders led a life of exile until the American invasion in 2003 ousted Saddam Hussein, can forge a grand political bargain with meaningful roles for the two significant minority factions, Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Under the Constitution, he has a 30-day window to conclude the sort of back-room deals — promises of positions and ministries, which sustain Iraq’s system of patronage — that would be the backbone of a new government.
“One thing all Iraqis need to know,” Mr. Kerry said Monday, “there will be little international support of any kind” if a decision on Iraq’s leadership “deviates from the legitimate Constitution” and interrupts the government formation process. Most Iraqi leaders, by now so exasperated by Mr. Maliki’s leadership and his insistence on clinging to power, have said that any other Shiite lawmaker will do. “Really, at this point, I think it’s anybody but Maliki,” said a Kurdish politician who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation.
Without military aid, the Iraqi government is unlikely to be able to reclaim territory from the Sunni militants, and may lose considerably more ground. The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria took the town of Jalawla and surrounding villages in northern Diyala Province near the Kurdistan border late Sunday, and were pushing east. For weeks, under pressure from both the Americans and Iraq’s Shiite religious leaders, lawmakers met to negotiate over the prime minister position. Several names were discussed, including Ahmed Chalabi, the former exile who fed intelligence, now debunked, about Mr. Hussein’s weapons programs to American intelligence agencies that were used to justify the American invasion.
The recapture by the pesh merga of two towns near Erbil on Sunday, after American airstrikes there, put only a small dent in the militant advance, General Hikmet said. Still, the events have heartened Kurdish fighters and civilians. It was only during the past week that Mr. Abadi became a candidate. He is a onetime ally of Mr. Maliki’s, and because Mr. Abadi is from the same party his candidacy became attractive, as it recognized the legitimacy of the election victory for Mr. Maliki’s bloc in April’s national elections.
The Kurds have begun receiving weapons from outside sources, American officials said on Monday. Although the United States was aware of the weapons deliveries, officials would not comment on the types of arms or on who was providing them. This is what “encouraged them to make a coup against Maliki,” said one of the Shiite negotiators, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss internal deliberations.
Another deciding factor, lawmakers said, was the clear stance of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country’s most influential Shiite cleric, who had pushed for political change.
Still, many lawmakers who abandoned Mr. Maliki are fearful of possible retaliation. In the past, when he has wanted to eliminate Sunni rivals, Mr. Maliki accused them of terrorism. Shiite rivals would be accused of corruption.
“The problem is he still has great power,” said a senior Shiite leader. “He controls the police and the army, plus the Special Forces. Our biggest fear is that Maliki could arrest everyone who participates in this, but we have seen that the Americans have warned Maliki this morning not to target the political elites who are seen as Maliki’s opponents.”
Mr. Abadi’s biography is typical of many Iraqi Shiite leaders. He was born in 1952, grew up in Baghdad, and joined the Dawa Party as a teenager, entering the clandestine opposition to Mr. Hussein’s dictatorship. Two of his brothers were said to have been killed by Mr. Hussein’s government. Mr. Abadi left Iraq in 1977 and moved to London, where he earned a doctorate in electrical engineering from Manchester University.
Politics in Iraq often carries undertones of violence, as seen in the past few days: A prime minister fighting to retain power dispatched loyal security units, some directly overseen by his son, and tanks occupied the center of power, the Green Zone. Political rivals sat at home, wondering if they would be arrested.
Heightening the tension were fears that if Mr. Maliki were to call on the Iraqi Army to back his effort, he could face resistance from militia groups aligned with other political parties.
“I wish he would cool it down,” said Mohammed Bahr al-Uloum, a lawmaker with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a Shiite party that opposes Mr. Maliki. Political violence in Baghdad, he said, is the last thing Iraq needs.
“I don’t want to see more blood in the streets,” Mr. Uloum said. “We have enough with ISIS.”