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Lesson of Syria vote weighs heavily as Cameron mulls Iraq Lesson of Syria vote weighs heavily as Cameron mulls Iraq
(7 months later)
If a week was a long time in politics in the era of Harold Wilson, then a year is an eternity nowadays.If a week was a long time in politics in the era of Harold Wilson, then a year is an eternity nowadays.
Conservative MPs, who are pressing David Cameron to step up Britain's response to the threat posed by forces from the Islamic State, are perplexed by the contrast between his caution on Iraq and his boldness on Syria last year.Conservative MPs, who are pressing David Cameron to step up Britain's response to the threat posed by forces from the Islamic State, are perplexed by the contrast between his caution on Iraq and his boldness on Syria last year.
A year ago this month the prime minister recalled parliament from its summer recess after deciding that Britain should join with the US in launching strikes against Syria after its forces attacked a Damascus suburb with chemical weapons.A year ago this month the prime minister recalled parliament from its summer recess after deciding that Britain should join with the US in launching strikes against Syria after its forces attacked a Damascus suburb with chemical weapons.
Cameron famously lost the vote which helps to explain why he is limiting Britain's involvement to airlifting Yazidi refugees from Mount Sinjar and transporting weapons to Kurdish forces. "It is a great compare and contrast," one loyalist Tory MP said of the difference between Cameron's response to Syria and Iraq, a year apart.Cameron famously lost the vote which helps to explain why he is limiting Britain's involvement to airlifting Yazidi refugees from Mount Sinjar and transporting weapons to Kurdish forces. "It is a great compare and contrast," one loyalist Tory MP said of the difference between Cameron's response to Syria and Iraq, a year apart.
"We should do more. It feels like we are constantly playing catch up with France and the US. What is frustrating is that this time it is much clearer and can be very well defined as an intervention and we have a track record with the Kurds – John Major saved them.""We should do more. It feels like we are constantly playing catch up with France and the US. What is frustrating is that this time it is much clearer and can be very well defined as an intervention and we have a track record with the Kurds – John Major saved them."
A series of factors have come into play which help to explain why Cameron has reverted to his initially hesitant approach to foreign affairs before he entered No 10. He appeared to revive Tony Blair's liberal interventionism soon after becoming PM with the military campaign in Libya which eventually overthrew Muammar Gaddafi.A series of factors have come into play which help to explain why Cameron has reverted to his initially hesitant approach to foreign affairs before he entered No 10. He appeared to revive Tony Blair's liberal interventionism soon after becoming PM with the military campaign in Libya which eventually overthrew Muammar Gaddafi.
The prime minister and George Osborne believe it would be highly risky to hold another vote after last year's defeat. In a hung parliament, in which a sizeable proportion of Tory MPs would oppose military intervention, the PM would need the support of both Ed Miliband an Nick Clegg. Cameron has what is described as a "leery" view of Miliband after believing that he acted duplicitously after instructing his MPs to vote against a government motion on Syria which, in No 10's view, incorporated almost all of Labour's demands. The prime minister and George Osborne believe it would be highly risky to hold another vote after last year's defeat. In a hung parliament, in which a sizeable proportion of Tory MPs would oppose military intervention, the PM would need the support of both Ed Miliband an Nick Clegg. Cameron has what is described as a "leery" view of Miliband after believing that he acted duplicitously after instructing his MPs to vote against a government motion on Syria which, in No 10's view, incorporated almost all of Labour's demands.
A little-noticed aspect of the current deliberations over Britain's role in Iraq is the caution of Clegg, who argued passionately in favour of military strikes against Assad last year. The Lib Dems are fully signed up to the military involvement in the current humanitarian mission in Iraq. But any further steps, from directly arming the Kurds to joining the US in launching air strikes against Isis forces, appear to have been ruled out by the deputy prime minister.A little-noticed aspect of the current deliberations over Britain's role in Iraq is the caution of Clegg, who argued passionately in favour of military strikes against Assad last year. The Lib Dems are fully signed up to the military involvement in the current humanitarian mission in Iraq. But any further steps, from directly arming the Kurds to joining the US in launching air strikes against Isis forces, appear to have been ruled out by the deputy prime minister.
"British history in Iraq is a different beast," one source said of the contrast. Clegg may not have been an MP at the time of the 2003 Iraq invasion but he appreciates that the Lib Dem opposition to the war – a defining moment in its modern history – makes Iraq acutely sensitive for any party leader."British history in Iraq is a different beast," one source said of the contrast. Clegg may not have been an MP at the time of the 2003 Iraq invasion but he appreciates that the Lib Dem opposition to the war – a defining moment in its modern history – makes Iraq acutely sensitive for any party leader.
While Clegg has his own party history to respect, he also has an eye on opinion polls which show overwhelming opposition to deploying British troops in Iraq. The polls do, however, show marginal support for launching strikes against Isis forces.While Clegg has his own party history to respect, he also has an eye on opinion polls which show overwhelming opposition to deploying British troops in Iraq. The polls do, however, show marginal support for launching strikes against Isis forces.
The opinion polls are also being examined with care by the Tories. "Public opinion is really not there," one Tory government source said on support for military intervention.The opinion polls are also being examined with care by the Tories. "Public opinion is really not there," one Tory government source said on support for military intervention.