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| Sectarian Past and Pluralist Hopes for Iraq’s Likely Leader | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| BAGHDAD — The last time the United States pushed Iraqis to choose a new prime minister who could unite the country to confront a sectarian civil war was in 2006, and the Iraqis chose Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. The result was another civil war. This time, with the country again on the edge of collapse, they have chosen Haider al-Abadi. | BAGHDAD — The last time the United States pushed Iraqis to choose a new prime minister who could unite the country to confront a sectarian civil war was in 2006, and the Iraqis chose Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. The result was another civil war. This time, with the country again on the edge of collapse, they have chosen Haider al-Abadi. |
| Both men come from the same Shiite Islamist movement whose members, after decades of clandestine opposition to Saddam Hussein and the Sunni elite that dominated his rule, were asked to govern Iraq in an inclusive way that accommodated the Sunnis they considered their former tormentors. | Both men come from the same Shiite Islamist movement whose members, after decades of clandestine opposition to Saddam Hussein and the Sunni elite that dominated his rule, were asked to govern Iraq in an inclusive way that accommodated the Sunnis they considered their former tormentors. |
| So far, that has proved impossible, but this time hope rests on a belief that Mr. Abadi is a different type of Islamist: one whose education, big-city upbringing and decades of living in Britain can surmount what have seemed the reflexive positions of Iraqi Shiite Islamists to be suspicious of Sunni ambitions and to see conspiracies around every corner. | So far, that has proved impossible, but this time hope rests on a belief that Mr. Abadi is a different type of Islamist: one whose education, big-city upbringing and decades of living in Britain can surmount what have seemed the reflexive positions of Iraqi Shiite Islamists to be suspicious of Sunni ambitions and to see conspiracies around every corner. |
| In some ways, though, Mr. Abadi, who was nominated last week to be Iraq’s new prime minister and still must form a government before he takes power, is solidly in line with the traditional sectarian views held by Shiite Islamists in Iraq. He insisted a few years after Shiites took power during the American occupation that they could not soon be expected to support a reconciliation program with the country’s Sunni minority. | In some ways, though, Mr. Abadi, who was nominated last week to be Iraq’s new prime minister and still must form a government before he takes power, is solidly in line with the traditional sectarian views held by Shiite Islamists in Iraq. He insisted a few years after Shiites took power during the American occupation that they could not soon be expected to support a reconciliation program with the country’s Sunni minority. |
| Before Iraq’s national elections in 2010, Mr. Abadi fretted anew that Baathists, Mr. Hussein’s old ruling party, were “building new coalitions” to restore their power. And speaking to an American diplomat in Baghdad, Mr. Abadi worried that if the Iraqi public did not benefit fully from Iraq’s new democracy, then army officers might “launch a coup d'état.” | Before Iraq’s national elections in 2010, Mr. Abadi fretted anew that Baathists, Mr. Hussein’s old ruling party, were “building new coalitions” to restore their power. And speaking to an American diplomat in Baghdad, Mr. Abadi worried that if the Iraqi public did not benefit fully from Iraq’s new democracy, then army officers might “launch a coup d'état.” |
| These sentiments, illustrated in several American diplomatic cables that were made public by WikiLeaks, reflect the scarred psyche of the Shiite Islamist movement that shaped much of Mr. Abadi’s life. For his political activities, Mr. Abadi was driven to exile in Britain, and two of his brothers were executed by Mr. Hussein’s administration. | These sentiments, illustrated in several American diplomatic cables that were made public by WikiLeaks, reflect the scarred psyche of the Shiite Islamist movement that shaped much of Mr. Abadi’s life. For his political activities, Mr. Abadi was driven to exile in Britain, and two of his brothers were executed by Mr. Hussein’s administration. |
| Whether Mr. Abadi can now overcome these grudges — essentially leave the past in the past — will help determine whether he can establish partnerships with Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds and forge a more inclusive government in Iraq. President Obama has demanded a less divisive leader as the price of more robust support to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which threatens to break the country apart. | Whether Mr. Abadi can now overcome these grudges — essentially leave the past in the past — will help determine whether he can establish partnerships with Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds and forge a more inclusive government in Iraq. President Obama has demanded a less divisive leader as the price of more robust support to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which threatens to break the country apart. |
| The comments from Mr. Abadi in the diplomatic cables echo the popular views among leading Shiite politicians, and there is little in Mr. Abadi’s political history to suggest that he harbors views at odds with the Dawa Party establishment. Even so, interviews with Iraqi political leaders and foreign diplomats paint a more nuanced portrait of Mr. Abadi, with some holding out hope that he could break the mold of Iraq’s recent leaders. | The comments from Mr. Abadi in the diplomatic cables echo the popular views among leading Shiite politicians, and there is little in Mr. Abadi’s political history to suggest that he harbors views at odds with the Dawa Party establishment. Even so, interviews with Iraqi political leaders and foreign diplomats paint a more nuanced portrait of Mr. Abadi, with some holding out hope that he could break the mold of Iraq’s recent leaders. |
| Mr. Abadi’s rise to the cusp of becoming Iraq’s new leader is almost as improbable of that of the man he is replacing, Mr. Maliki, who said last week that he would give up power. | Mr. Abadi’s rise to the cusp of becoming Iraq’s new leader is almost as improbable of that of the man he is replacing, Mr. Maliki, who said last week that he would give up power. |
| Mr. Maliki, like Mr. Abadi, was a lawmaker when he was chosen in 2006 to replace another man from his own Shiite Islamist Dawa Party, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Mr. Jaafari was seen as too sectarian and indecisive and not capable of uniting the country in the face of civil war. | Mr. Maliki, like Mr. Abadi, was a lawmaker when he was chosen in 2006 to replace another man from his own Shiite Islamist Dawa Party, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Mr. Jaafari was seen as too sectarian and indecisive and not capable of uniting the country in the face of civil war. |
| Now Mr. Maliki has been replaced, mostly for the same reasons. And again, the political class has plucked its choice for a new prime minister from the Dawa Party, which won the most seats in April’s national elections. | Now Mr. Maliki has been replaced, mostly for the same reasons. And again, the political class has plucked its choice for a new prime minister from the Dawa Party, which won the most seats in April’s national elections. |
| American diplomats and Iraqis say that Mr. Abadi and Mr. Maliki, despite a common political heritage, have important differences, including that Mr. Abadi has been much more exposed to the West than Mr. Maliki was. But some also acknowledge the risk that history will repeat itself, with a new Shiite leader unwilling or unable to knit the country back together. | American diplomats and Iraqis say that Mr. Abadi and Mr. Maliki, despite a common political heritage, have important differences, including that Mr. Abadi has been much more exposed to the West than Mr. Maliki was. But some also acknowledge the risk that history will repeat itself, with a new Shiite leader unwilling or unable to knit the country back together. |
| Zalmay Khalilzad, who was the American ambassador to Iraq in 2006 and played a decisive role in urging Mr. Maliki to seek the position of prime minister, said he thought Mr. Abadi would be “more pragmatic because of his Western technical background.” | Zalmay Khalilzad, who was the American ambassador to Iraq in 2006 and played a decisive role in urging Mr. Maliki to seek the position of prime minister, said he thought Mr. Abadi would be “more pragmatic because of his Western technical background.” |
| But he also noted that Mr. Abadi had been a core member of the Dawa party, which has governed Iraq for more than eight years and shown itself incapable of establishing durable alliances with Sunnis. | But he also noted that Mr. Abadi had been a core member of the Dawa party, which has governed Iraq for more than eight years and shown itself incapable of establishing durable alliances with Sunnis. |
| “He is more open, more worldly, but he is going to have a very difficult task being able to bridge the gaps that exist and then confront the I.S.,” he said, using the abbreviation for the Islamic State, which ISIS now calls itself. | “He is more open, more worldly, but he is going to have a very difficult task being able to bridge the gaps that exist and then confront the I.S.,” he said, using the abbreviation for the Islamic State, which ISIS now calls itself. |
| “He also comes from that hard-core Dawa, which is Shia Islamist.” Mr. Khalilzad said. “Not only does he have to evolve further himself, but bringing the rest of the Shia Islamists to the kind of power-sharing needed will be a tall order for him.” | “He also comes from that hard-core Dawa, which is Shia Islamist.” Mr. Khalilzad said. “Not only does he have to evolve further himself, but bringing the rest of the Shia Islamists to the kind of power-sharing needed will be a tall order for him.” |
| After Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, fell to insurgents on June 10, Iraqi political leaders came under intense pressure, much of it from the United States, to quickly form a new government and replace Mr. Maliki with someone seen as more inclusive. For weeks, leaders considered many candidates, but Mr. Abadi did not emerge as a viable alternative until almost the end of the process. | After Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, fell to insurgents on June 10, Iraqi political leaders came under intense pressure, much of it from the United States, to quickly form a new government and replace Mr. Maliki with someone seen as more inclusive. For weeks, leaders considered many candidates, but Mr. Abadi did not emerge as a viable alternative until almost the end of the process. |
| When Mr. Abadi was chosen by Dawa leaders as a compromise candidate, Iran at first refused to accept him. Iran was said to be worried about his Western background, and Iranian leaders have not had the close working relationship with Mr. Abadi that they have had with other Iraqi Shiite leaders over the years. | When Mr. Abadi was chosen by Dawa leaders as a compromise candidate, Iran at first refused to accept him. Iran was said to be worried about his Western background, and Iranian leaders have not had the close working relationship with Mr. Abadi that they have had with other Iraqi Shiite leaders over the years. |
| In addition, Mr. Maliki refused to step aside. But Iran, Western officials believe, eventually backed Mr. Abadi after it became clear that Mr. Maliki’s attempt to retain power through legal channels would probably fail. | In addition, Mr. Maliki refused to step aside. But Iran, Western officials believe, eventually backed Mr. Abadi after it became clear that Mr. Maliki’s attempt to retain power through legal channels would probably fail. |
| “He was someone not afraid to step up to Maliki and take a chance, so there’s a fair amount of leadership right there,” said a Western official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about political negotiations, referring to Mr. Abadi. | “He was someone not afraid to step up to Maliki and take a chance, so there’s a fair amount of leadership right there,” said a Western official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about political negotiations, referring to Mr. Abadi. |
| The official added, “He says he can be inclusive, and he seems to understand the problems that the current prime minister ran up against.” | The official added, “He says he can be inclusive, and he seems to understand the problems that the current prime minister ran up against.” |
| Although Mr. Maliki and Mr. Abadi come from the same Islamist movement, they have quite different backgrounds. Mr. Maliki, 64, grew up in a village, spent his time in exile in Syria and Iran, speaks no foreign languages and is deeply hostile to the West. | Although Mr. Maliki and Mr. Abadi come from the same Islamist movement, they have quite different backgrounds. Mr. Maliki, 64, grew up in a village, spent his time in exile in Syria and Iran, speaks no foreign languages and is deeply hostile to the West. |
| Mr. Abadi, 62, is considered more urbane and sophisticated. He comes from a wealthy family in Baghdad, was educated abroad, lived for decades in London and speaks English. | Mr. Abadi, 62, is considered more urbane and sophisticated. He comes from a wealthy family in Baghdad, was educated abroad, lived for decades in London and speaks English. |
| Mr. Abadi’s father was a well-known doctor who is remembered even today in Karada, the upper-middle-class neighborhood in central Baghdad where Mr. Abadi grew up. | Mr. Abadi’s father was a well-known doctor who is remembered even today in Karada, the upper-middle-class neighborhood in central Baghdad where Mr. Abadi grew up. |
| In Britain, Mr. Abadi earned a doctorate in engineering, and he later ran the company that serviced elevators at the building where the BBC World Service was located, earning a decent living while he also worked in the turbulent world of Iraqi opposition politics. He is married and has three children, and his family still lives in London. | In Britain, Mr. Abadi earned a doctorate in engineering, and he later ran the company that serviced elevators at the building where the BBC World Service was located, earning a decent living while he also worked in the turbulent world of Iraqi opposition politics. He is married and has three children, and his family still lives in London. |
| As a child, he was known as an able soccer player, but he turned to politics at a young age. He joined the Dawa Party at age 15, just before the Baathists consolidated power in the country in 1968. At that time, a young Iraqi man who wanted to oppose the country’s authorities had two choices: political Islam or communism. Mr. Abadi chose the former. In the late 1970s he moved to Britain to pursue his graduate studies, and while he was there Mr. Hussein’s government began targeting Dawa operatives for assassination, and so he stayed abroad. | As a child, he was known as an able soccer player, but he turned to politics at a young age. He joined the Dawa Party at age 15, just before the Baathists consolidated power in the country in 1968. At that time, a young Iraqi man who wanted to oppose the country’s authorities had two choices: political Islam or communism. Mr. Abadi chose the former. In the late 1970s he moved to Britain to pursue his graduate studies, and while he was there Mr. Hussein’s government began targeting Dawa operatives for assassination, and so he stayed abroad. |
| Ali al-Alaq, a longtime Dawa leader, noted Mr. Abadi’s background as a scion of a wealthy family and said he would “have a new touch in Iraqi politics.” | Ali al-Alaq, a longtime Dawa leader, noted Mr. Abadi’s background as a scion of a wealthy family and said he would “have a new touch in Iraqi politics.” |
| In the opposition days, Mr. Abadi was involved in Dawa’s political affairs, working in Britain, while Mr. Maliki, operating largely from Damascus, Syria, was in charge of clandestine military operations against Mr. Hussein’s government. | In the opposition days, Mr. Abadi was involved in Dawa’s political affairs, working in Britain, while Mr. Maliki, operating largely from Damascus, Syria, was in charge of clandestine military operations against Mr. Hussein’s government. |
| “He is a man who considers things,” said Salman al-Jumaili, a Sunni and former member of Parliament, where he worked with Mr. Abadi. “He was maybe influenced by his education. And my opinion is that he is not as aggressive because he doesn’t have a background in the security services of the Dawa Party.” | “He is a man who considers things,” said Salman al-Jumaili, a Sunni and former member of Parliament, where he worked with Mr. Abadi. “He was maybe influenced by his education. And my opinion is that he is not as aggressive because he doesn’t have a background in the security services of the Dawa Party.” |
| After the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, Mr. Abadi returned to his homeland. He was briefly communications minister, and for the past eight years he has been a member of Parliament, where he has focused on economic issues and earned a reputation as an able technocrat, not an ideologue. | After the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, Mr. Abadi returned to his homeland. He was briefly communications minister, and for the past eight years he has been a member of Parliament, where he has focused on economic issues and earned a reputation as an able technocrat, not an ideologue. |
| While some of the diplomatic cables from WikiLeaks showed him resistant to efforts at national reconciliation, others showed a willingness to work with Sunnis, which could help him form alliances to fight back against the militants. | While some of the diplomatic cables from WikiLeaks showed him resistant to efforts at national reconciliation, others showed a willingness to work with Sunnis, which could help him form alliances to fight back against the militants. |
| Robert S. Ford, a former American diplomat who served extensively in Iraq and was most recently the ambassador to Syria, said he felt that Mr. Abadi’s temperament was well suited for leadership. | Robert S. Ford, a former American diplomat who served extensively in Iraq and was most recently the ambassador to Syria, said he felt that Mr. Abadi’s temperament was well suited for leadership. |
| “Abadi was very relaxed in dealing with Iraqis from other political blocs,” Mr. Ford said. “He is outgoing, and sometimes in meetings when they were discussing something contentious like an election law, he would tell little jokes and get everybody to chuckle a little bit and lighten the atmosphere. I personally think he is a very good choice for prime minister.” | “Abadi was very relaxed in dealing with Iraqis from other political blocs,” Mr. Ford said. “He is outgoing, and sometimes in meetings when they were discussing something contentious like an election law, he would tell little jokes and get everybody to chuckle a little bit and lighten the atmosphere. I personally think he is a very good choice for prime minister.” |
| Even so, Mr. Abadi has been described as a consummate party loyalist, and he has never broken from the party’s orthodoxy, which has been geared toward securing the political dominance of Iraq’s long-suppressed Shiite majority. Many of the things people are now saying about Mr. Abadi — that he is not overly sectarian, and is capable of inclusiveness — are similar to what was said about Mr. Maliki eight years ago. | Even so, Mr. Abadi has been described as a consummate party loyalist, and he has never broken from the party’s orthodoxy, which has been geared toward securing the political dominance of Iraq’s long-suppressed Shiite majority. Many of the things people are now saying about Mr. Abadi — that he is not overly sectarian, and is capable of inclusiveness — are similar to what was said about Mr. Maliki eight years ago. |
| Mr. Abadi could run into difficulties dealing with the Kurds, too. As the head of Parliament’s finance committee, he took a leading role in cutting off budget payments this year to the Kurdish region in response to the Kurds’ demands to sell their own oil without Baghdad’s approval. | Mr. Abadi could run into difficulties dealing with the Kurds, too. As the head of Parliament’s finance committee, he took a leading role in cutting off budget payments this year to the Kurdish region in response to the Kurds’ demands to sell their own oil without Baghdad’s approval. |
| “We know that there is no difference between Maliki and Abadi with respect to the suspended issues between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government,” said Adel Nuri, a Kurdish lawmaker. | “We know that there is no difference between Maliki and Abadi with respect to the suspended issues between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government,” said Adel Nuri, a Kurdish lawmaker. |
| Mr. Abadi is not yet prime minister, and under the Constitution he has about three more weeks to form a new government. Although Mr. Maliki has said he will step down, Iraqi and Western officials worry that he will work behind the scenes to sabotage Mr. Abadi’s efforts, and they say it is possible Mr. Maliki could emerge again as Iraq’s leader. | Mr. Abadi is not yet prime minister, and under the Constitution he has about three more weeks to form a new government. Although Mr. Maliki has said he will step down, Iraqi and Western officials worry that he will work behind the scenes to sabotage Mr. Abadi’s efforts, and they say it is possible Mr. Maliki could emerge again as Iraq’s leader. |
| Mr. Abadi has not spoken to the country in an national address, but he has communicated over Twitter. | Mr. Abadi has not spoken to the country in an national address, but he has communicated over Twitter. |
| In one message, he wrote: “I will stand with the persecuted against the oppressors and be the voice for the weak and destitute. Lord take us not to task should we forget or err.” | In one message, he wrote: “I will stand with the persecuted against the oppressors and be the voice for the weak and destitute. Lord take us not to task should we forget or err.” |