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GCSE results tipped to rise but schools reliant on resits may suffer GCSE results tipped to improve but schools reliant on resits may suffer
(35 minutes later)
Schools with a challenging intake are likely to fare particularly badly on Thursday when 500,000 pupils receive the results of GCSEs taken for the first time under reforms championed by Michael Gove, a leading academic has said.Schools with a challenging intake are likely to fare particularly badly on Thursday when 500,000 pupils receive the results of GCSEs taken for the first time under reforms championed by Michael Gove, a leading academic has said.
Professor Alan Smithers said Gove's decision to force pupils to take all the exams at the end of their course, instead of letting them sit exams for some course units early, would disadvantage those schools that relied on resits to push pupils over the crucial grade C barrier.Professor Alan Smithers said Gove's decision to force pupils to take all the exams at the end of their course, instead of letting them sit exams for some course units early, would disadvantage those schools that relied on resits to push pupils over the crucial grade C barrier.
The move was one of several introduced by Gove, before he was replaced as education secretary by Nicky Morgan in the summer reshuffle, intended to introduce more academic rigour into GCSEs and to tackle grade inflation.The move was one of several introduced by Gove, before he was replaced as education secretary by Nicky Morgan in the summer reshuffle, intended to introduce more academic rigour into GCSEs and to tackle grade inflation.
The changes have led to Ofqual, the exams regulator, taking the unusual step of warning that there will be more variability than usual in this year's results and that grades could go down significantly.The changes have led to Ofqual, the exams regulator, taking the unusual step of warning that there will be more variability than usual in this year's results and that grades could go down significantly.
But Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, said overall grades could even go up, because another Gove innovation had led to a sharp drop in the number of pupils entered for GCSEs in year 10 instead of year 11.But Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, said overall grades could even go up, because another Gove innovation had led to a sharp drop in the number of pupils entered for GCSEs in year 10 instead of year 11.
The key change is the ban on mid-course exams, meaning all assessment comes at the end of courses. This will affect some schools more than others because the modular system was never universal, and its main impact will be to hold back pupils relying on in-course resits to bump up their grades.The key change is the ban on mid-course exams, meaning all assessment comes at the end of courses. This will affect some schools more than others because the modular system was never universal, and its main impact will be to hold back pupils relying on in-course resits to bump up their grades.
There have also been significant changes to English and English language at GCSE. Speaking and listening, which was marked by teachers rather than external examiners, no longer counts towards grades, and the balance between exams and coursework is shifting, with exams now counting for 60% of the final mark instead of 40%. GCSE geography has also been made more rigorous.There have also been significant changes to English and English language at GCSE. Speaking and listening, which was marked by teachers rather than external examiners, no longer counts towards grades, and the balance between exams and coursework is shifting, with exams now counting for 60% of the final mark instead of 40%. GCSE geography has also been made more rigorous.
According to Ofqual, none of these changes on their own should have an impact on overall grades. "We don't think it would be fair if the overall group of students were disadvantaged or advantaged by changes being made," said a spokesman.According to Ofqual, none of these changes on their own should have an impact on overall grades. "We don't think it would be fair if the overall group of students were disadvantaged or advantaged by changes being made," said a spokesman.
Ofqual aims to ensure that pupils do not lose out because they are sitting exams in 2014 and not 2013. But it acknowledged that although it could try to impose fairness in broad terms, the new system would affect results at a local level. Smithers said the new arrangements were likely to favour schools with higher-ability students.Ofqual aims to ensure that pupils do not lose out because they are sitting exams in 2014 and not 2013. But it acknowledged that although it could try to impose fairness in broad terms, the new system would affect results at a local level. Smithers said the new arrangements were likely to favour schools with higher-ability students.
"The schools that are most likely to be affected are those that had worked out ways of getting students who struggle over the C grade line, that depended on early entries, multiple entries and generous teacher assessment. All those three have been greatly reduced or gone.""The schools that are most likely to be affected are those that had worked out ways of getting students who struggle over the C grade line, that depended on early entries, multiple entries and generous teacher assessment. All those three have been greatly reduced or gone."
Individual pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland get their results on Thursday morning, but, as schools received them on Wednesday there were reports that English grades were down.Individual pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland get their results on Thursday morning, but, as schools received them on Wednesday there were reports that English grades were down.
John Tomsett, from Huntington school, said his maths results were up but English had suffered. "For the first time there are students who got maths grade C but didn't get English – it's always been the other way around," he said. "We have students getting A* in geography and history and a B for English. It's pretty hard to get A* in geography and history if you can't write. It just seems a bit harsh."John Tomsett, from Huntington school, said his maths results were up but English had suffered. "For the first time there are students who got maths grade C but didn't get English – it's always been the other way around," he said. "We have students getting A* in geography and history and a B for English. It's pretty hard to get A* in geography and history if you can't write. It just seems a bit harsh."
Geoff Barton, head of King Edward VI school in Suffolk, said: "When the team find out about the English results tomorrow they'll be really disappointed in them. My job as a head in the post-Gove era is to say some of these results aren't of our making."Geoff Barton, head of King Edward VI school in Suffolk, said: "When the team find out about the English results tomorrow they'll be really disappointed in them. My job as a head in the post-Gove era is to say some of these results aren't of our making."
For the last two years the proportion of pupils getting a grade C or higher has fallen. But Smithers said he expected overall results to go up this year because Gove decided that resit results would not count towards school league tables, only the grade achieved at a first GCSE attempt.For the last two years the proportion of pupils getting a grade C or higher has fallen. But Smithers said he expected overall results to go up this year because Gove decided that resit results would not count towards school league tables, only the grade achieved at a first GCSE attempt.
That has resulted in a 40% fall in the number of GCSEs being taken by the year 10 pupils, who now account for roughly 10% of the 5m GCSEs sat in England. Smithers said this meant there was a significant change in the nature of the exam cohort, which is why Ofqual was wary of comparing this year's results with last year's.That has resulted in a 40% fall in the number of GCSEs being taken by the year 10 pupils, who now account for roughly 10% of the 5m GCSEs sat in England. Smithers said this meant there was a significant change in the nature of the exam cohort, which is why Ofqual was wary of comparing this year's results with last year's.
Comparisons have also been made harder by the huge rise in the number of people taking GCSE-equivalent exams – level 1 or level 2 qualifications known collectively as IGCSEs – instead of actual GCSEs. Provisional figures released earlier this year showed a 95% increase in the number of IGCSEs being sat, taking the overall number to almost 300,000. Almost half of those IGCSEs are in English language, where Gove's changes may have encouraged schools to seek an easier alternative.Comparisons have also been made harder by the huge rise in the number of people taking GCSE-equivalent exams – level 1 or level 2 qualifications known collectively as IGCSEs – instead of actual GCSEs. Provisional figures released earlier this year showed a 95% increase in the number of IGCSEs being sat, taking the overall number to almost 300,000. Almost half of those IGCSEs are in English language, where Gove's changes may have encouraged schools to seek an easier alternative.